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The job market’s soft landing ‘is in danger,’ economist says

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Job seekers have been sour on the job market for a while now — and with good reason.

“The soft landing in the U.S. labor market is in danger,” Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America for Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in a statement on Friday.

“Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red,” Bunker said. 

While some market areas like the information services sector posted a loss of 20,000 in Friday’s jobs report, other job sectors might still have “Help Wanted” signs on their doors. 

If you’re currently battling through a competitive labor market, here are the sectors that are hiring and how you can transfer your skills to pivot into a different field, according to experts.

A ‘warning sign’ from entry-level workers

Job growth in the U.S. slowed more than expected and the unemployment rate bounced higher, according to the latest information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July, down from 179,000 in June, the agency reported on Friday. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021.

A key driver in the July’s unemployment rate was an increase in “job loser unemployment,” or temporarily laid off workers, Bunker said. This can happen in the manufacturing sector, he said.

“They are unemployed, but their connection to their old employer isn’t entirely severed,” Bunker said. “Their probability of finding a job in the next six months is much higher than other unemployed workers.”

The jobless rate is also driven by young workers under the age of 24 facing high competition, said Alí Bustamante, a labor economist and director of the Worker Power and Economic Security program at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank based in New York City.

These sectors are still hiring

“The only constants in this labor market over the last 18 months have been government jobs, health care jobs, and construction, too, remarkably,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

A small share of the private sector is adding jobs, according to Bunker.

“It’s not like the broad share of sectors is adding jobs right now,” he said.

Health care and social assistance took the lead in job creations by adding 64,000 openings, according to the BLS. Other growing sectors include construction (25,000); leisure and hospitality (23,000); government (17,000); transportation and warehousing (14,000); wholesale trade (4,000); retail trade (4,000); and manufacturing (1,000).

Some fields ‘see insatiable demand from employers’

It can be hard to optimize the job search on a growing sector because of cyclical market fluctuations, economists said.

But if you were to make a career pivot, “health care does make sense,” Bunker said.

In some cases, that might involve going back to school, Pollak said.

“We see incredibly high demand in health care throughout every level of job for registered nurses, for nursing assistants,” she said.

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Training in skilled trades as well, she added. Some fields are seeing a strong demand, especially those where the workforce is aging and on the brink of a huge wave of retirement, and industries that are unlikely to be disrupted by AI automation, Pollak explained.

“It’s the skilled trades, like an electrician or a [heating, ventilation and air conditioning] technician, where we see insatiable demand from employers and rising wages,” she said.

To pivot, assess ‘transferrable skills’

Because the labor market is weakening, it might be hard for workers to find opportunities in their preferred industries, Bustamante noted.

Looking at other occupations and other industries that may have a similar occupation than the one that they were looking for could be a start, he said.

For example, “you’re an IT worker and you want to work at a start-up firm,” said Bustamante. It might be difficult to find an opportunity there, but perhaps looking into the medical field or in government service, which is “doing pretty strong hiring as well” could be fruitful, he said.

It’s really about not just looking at the industries, but “really looking at the occupations and where those occupations or opportunities are really present at the moment,” Bustamante said.

Pollak agreed: “Definitely look at things where you have transferable skills.”

Become a better competitor by tailoring the resume, browse job listings, apply right away and know that “AI can be your best friend,” whether to help tailor your resume, prepare for interviews or discover roles, she said.

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What it would cost to live like the ‘Home Alone’ family today

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Home Alone (1990)

20th Century Fox

The classic Christmas movie “Home Alone” tells the improbable tale of a family who leaves their 8-year-old son home when they leave for vacation.

Yet in the years since the 1990 film was released, viewers have focused on another question — how wealthy was the fictitious McCallister family featured in the movie?

The family orders 10 pizzas on the eve of their trip, lives in a house that can sleep 15 people (including extended family) and all fly to Paris for the Christmas holiday.

“They’re well off and in a good place financially,” Cody Garrett, a certified financial planner, owner and financial planner at Measure Twice Financial in Houston, said of the first impression of the McCallisters’ circumstances.

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But the family may not be quite as wealthy as they seem, Garrett said.

To better understand the details of the McCallister family’s financial circumstances, Garrett recently did a deep dive analysis of the family’s finances from “Home Alone” and “Home Alone 2: Lost in New York,” which debuted in late 1992, and hosted a webinar with around 25 financial planners to discuss financial planning opportunities that arise in the movies.

Both movies were shot long before social media made it popular to flaunt personal wealth online. Nevertheless, the lifestyle the McCallister family shows to the world may not necessarily be an indication of their wealth, Garrett said.

“There’s a lot of things that are showing that they spent a lot of money, or at least financed a lavish lifestyle to the public,” Garrett said. “But inside their own home, they’re actually maybe a little scared about money.”

What the McCallister lifestyle would be worth now

The Home Alone Experience created by Disney+, opens in London, offering an immersive experience inspired by the Christmas movie, with set recreations of the McCallister family’s home.

David Parry Media Assignments | PA Wire | AP

What looked lavish more than 30 years ago when the first two movies were shot is now even more luxurious today, thanks in large part to the effects of inflation.

The actual five-bedroom, six-bathroom Winnetka, Illinois, home where the movie was filmed was listed for $5.25 million in the spring. Today, it is still under contract, and a final sale price won’t be known until the deal is finalized, according to Zillow spokesperson Matt Kreamer.

To buy the house at $5.25 million today would cost approximately $34,000 per month, with principal, interest and property taxes, according to Kreamer. That’s with 20% down and a 7% mortgage rate.

To comfortably afford the home, you would need $100,000 per month in income, assuming you’re adhering to an affordability threshold of not spending more than one-third of your income on housing costs, Kreamer said.

“It’s a pretty spectacular house, and certainly one of the more famous movie homes that people can instantly recognize,” Kreamer said.

In 1990 when the first movie debuted, the home would have likely been worth a little less than $1 million, Kreamer estimates, which is still high for that time.

Yet the home may not necessarily point to a high net worth for the McCallister movie family.

“I would not be surprised if they don’t have much equity in their house,” Garrett said, given the couple’s stage of life and circumstances.

In the films, the McCallisters are also driving what at the time were relatively new cars — a 1986 Buick Electra Estate Wagon and a 1990 Buick LaSabre — each of which would be valued at $40,000 in today’s dollars, according to Garrett’s estimates.

While the family is eager to show their wealth — including mother Kate paying in cash for the $122.50 pizza bill while also offering a generous tip — they’re frugal when it comes to the things people don’t see, Garrett said.

How the family talks about money can sometimes point to a scarcity mindset, he said. For example, Kate mentions she doesn’t want to waste the family’s milk before they leave on vacation.

The family’s lifestyle isn’t paid for all on their own. Peter’s brother Rob actually foots the cost of the Paris trip for the family. That airfare would cost around $55,650 today, GoBankingRates recently estimated.

What financial planning lessons are hidden in the movie

Many major details about Kate and Peter McCallister’s finances are not disclosed, including what they do for a living.

Nevertheless, the financial planners who evaluated the family’s circumstances saw some holes that could be addressed with planning.

On the top of their wish list: proper insurance coverage.

Because Kate and Peter McCallister have five children, having enough life and disability insurance should they pass away or become unable to work should be a top priority to ensure their dependents are provided for, according to Garrett.

The movie — which includes many slips and falls at the family’s home as 8-year-old Kevin tries to ward off a pair of robbers — also signals a need for an umbrella insurance policy, in case the McCallisters are found liable for injuries or damages that occur.

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Kate and Peter — who forget or lose their son Kevin in both of the first two “Home Alone” movies — would also be wise to make proper estate planning arrangements in the event they can no longer provide or care for their children. That includes having wills, powers of attorney, advance directives, beneficiary designations, trusts and proper account titling, all kept up to date.

The couple should name physical and financial guardians who can care for the children. They may also establish a pre-need guardian for the children who can step in if the parents are unable to care for them even for a short period of time, said Aubrey Williams, financial planner at Open Path Financial in Santa Barbara, California.

“If the parents are not there to take care of the kids, there’s the possibility that kids, even if briefly, will become a ward at the state because there’s no one to care for them,” Williams said.

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The busiest return season of the year is about to begin

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Consumers are 'showing up and spending' following a strong November, says Tanger Outlets CEO

After a strong start to the holiday season, consumer spending is on track to reach record levels this year. But many of those purchases will soon be returned.

December’s peak shopping days are closely followed by the busiest month for sending items back, which experts dub “Returnuary.”

This year, returns are expected to amount to 17% of all merchandise sales, totaling $890 billion in returned goods, according to a recent report by the National Retail Federation — up from a return rate of about 15% of total U.S. retail sales, or $743 billion in returned goods, in 2023.

Even though returns happen throughout the year, they are much more prevalent during the holiday season, the NRF also found. As shopping reaches a peak, retailers expect their return rate for the holidays to be 17% higher, on average, than usual.

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“Ideally, I hope there is a world in which you can reduce the percent of returns,” said Amena Ali, CEO of returns solution company Optoro, but “the problem is not going to abate any time soon.”

How returns became an $890 billion problem

With the explosion of online shopping during and since the pandemic, customers got increasingly comfortable with their buying and returning habits and more shoppers began ordering products they never intended to keep.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers now buy multiple sizes or colors, some of which they then send back, a practice known as “bracketing,” according to Happy Returns.

Even more — 69% — of shoppers admit to “wardrobing,” or buying an item for a specific event and returning it afterward, a separate report by Optoro found. That’s a 39% increase from 2023.

Largely because of these types of behaviors, 46% of consumers said they are returning goods multiple times a month — a 29% jump from last year, according to Optoro.

All of that back-and-forth comes at a hefty price.

“With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics,” David Sobie, Happy Returns’ co-founder and CEO, said in a statement.

What happens to returned goods

Processing a return costs retailers an average of 30% of an item’s original price, Optoro found. But returns aren’t just a problem for retailers’ bottom line.

Often returns do not end up back on the shelf, and that also causes issues for retailers struggling to enhance sustainability, according to Spencer Kieboom, founder and CEO of Pollen Returns, a return management company. 

Sending products back to be repackaged, restocked and resold — sometimes overseas — generates even more carbon emissions, assuming they can be put back in circulation.

In some cases, returned goods are sent straight to landfills, and only 54% of all packaging was recycled in 2018, the most recent data available, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Returns in 2023 created 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste, according to Optoro.

That presents a major challenge for retailers, not only in terms of the lost revenue, but also in terms of the environmental impact of managing those returns, said Rachel Delacour, co-founder and CEO of Sweep, a sustainability data management firm. “At the end of the day, being sustainable is a business strategy.”

To that end, companies are doing what they can to keep returns in check.

In 2023, 81% of U.S. retailers rolled out stricter return policies, including shortening the return window and charging a return or restocking fee, according to another report from Happy Returns.

While restocking fees and shipping charges may help curb the amount of inventory that is sent back, retailers also said that improving the returns experience was a key goal for 2025.

Now 33% of retailers, including Amazon and Target, are allowing their customers to simply “keep it,” offering a refund without taking the product back.

Retail's return secret: What a 'keep it' policy means

For shoppers, return policies are key

Increasingly, return policies and expectations are an important predictor of consumer behavior, according to Happy Returns’ Sobie, particularly for Generation Z and millennials.

“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration — they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” Sobie said.

Three-quarters, or 76%, of shoppers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to spend their money, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again, the NRF found.

A survey of 1,500 adults by GoDaddy found that 77% of shoppers check the return policy before making a purchase.

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1 million taxpayers to receive up to $1,400 in ‘special payments’

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Ryanjlane | E+ | Getty Images

The IRS plans to issue automatic “special payments” of up to $1,400 to 1 million taxpayers starting later this month, the agency announced on Friday.

The payments will go to individuals who did not claim the 2021 Recovery Rebate Credit on their tax returns for that year and who are eligible for the money.

The Recovery Rebate Credit is a refundable tax credit provided to individuals who did not receive one or more economic impact payments — more popularly known as stimulus checks — that were sent by the federal government in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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The maximum payment will be $1,400 per individual and will vary based on circumstances, according to the IRS. The agency will make an estimated total of about $2.4 billion in payments.

“Looking at our internal data, we realized that one million taxpayers overlooked claiming this complex credit when they were actually eligible,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in a statement. “To minimize headaches and get this money to eligible taxpayers, we’re making these payments automatic, meaning these people will not be required to go through the extensive process of filing an amended return to receive it.” 

No action needed for eligible taxpayers

The new payments are slated to be sent out automatically in December. In most cases, the money should arrive by late January, according to the IRS.

Eligible taxpayers can expect to receive the money either by direct deposit or a paper check in the mail. They will also receive a separate letter notifying them about the payment.

Direct deposit payments will go to taxpayers who have current bank account information on file with the IRS.

If eligible individuals have closed their bank accounts since their 2023 tax returns, payments will be reissued by the IRS through paper checks to the mailing addresses on record. Those taxpayers do not need to take action, according to the agency.

How to tell if you qualify

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