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The strong U.S. job market is in a ‘sweet spot,’ economists say

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Now Hiring sign in a supermarket window in Queens, New York. 

Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The U.S. job market continues to chug ahead without signs of overheating — a good sign for workers and the U.S. economy, according to economists.

While the market has cooled from its breakneck pace of the “great resignation” era, employers are adding ample jobs to their payrolls, unemployment hovers near historical lows, and worker buying power (so-called “real” wage growth) is steadily rising, economists said.

The labor market has been resilient despite economic headwinds like higher interest rates.

“This is still a labor market that’s very attractive, especially historically speaking, for workers,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

“There’s still strong, broad-based job growth and real wage growth has been restored,” Pollak said. “I think that’s very, very good news.”

The labor market is in a ‘sweet spot’

Employers added 303,000 jobs to payrolls in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That’s the largest monthly gain since January 2023.

Job growth in the first three months of 2024 — 274,000, on average — beats the 2019 pre-pandemic average by more than 100,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 3.8% in March, from 3.9% in February. Unemployment has been below 4% — a historically low mark — for more than two years.

“That’s an exceptionally long period of such tight labor markets,” Pollak said.

Those conditions are pushing employers to make “very attractive” offers to new hires and proactively recruit prospective candidates, she said.

Takeaways from blowout jobs report

The layoff rate has also been near a historic low for more than two years, as employers hang on to their current workforce.

Additionally, more workers joined the labor force in March, boosting the labor force participation rate at a time when job openings remain historically high. That dynamic suggests a healthy, sustainable equilibrium between the supply and demand of labor, economists said.

“The labor market is settling into a sweet spot,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at job site Indeed.

It’s powering ahead and “there’s open road ahead of it as well,” he said.

The job market is cooler — but perhaps more desirable

Of course, the job market isn’t as a hot as it was in 2021 and 2022, after the U.S. economy awoke from a Covid-induced slumber.

At that time, workers were quitting their jobs at the fastest rate in history — a trend dubbed the great resignation — amid ample job opportunity and the relative ease of finding a higher-paying gig.

Workers saw the “red carpet rolled out for them,” Pollak said.

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But those conditions helped stoke high inflation, which touched a four-decade high in 2022. Fast-rising prices for consumer goods meant workers’ rapidly growing wages couldn’t keep pace with price tags at the store.

The average worker’s buying power fell for two years as a result.

Wage growth has declined, to an annual 4.1% pace in March from a pandemic-era peak of 5.9% in March 2022, on average. But inflation has fallen more than that, which translates to an increase in household buying power since May 2023.

Real hourly earnings — wages after accounting for inflation — grew by 1.1% in February 2024 versus a year earlier.

The current labor market is in many ways more desirable than the red-hot one a few years ago, which wasn’t sustainable, economists said.

While workers have lost some leverage, it’s still “relatively easy” to find a job and workers are now getting those inflation-adjusted raises, Bunker said.

“There are aspects of the 2021 and 2022 labor market people want back, but aspects of the 2024 labor market people prefer more,” Bunker said.

Plus, the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs to their highest level in over two decades to combat pandemic-era inflation. That pushed interest rates for mortgages, credit cards and other consumer debt sky high.

Fed officials see cooling wage growth is a positive relative to the inflation fight, and may provide comfort they need to start reducing borrowing costs this year, economists said.

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Social Security plans to cut about 7,000 workers. That may affect benefits

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The Social Security Administration office in Brownsville, Texas.

Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc | Corbis Historical | Getty Images

The Social Security Administration plans to shed 7,000 employees as the Trump administration looks for ways to cut federal spending.

The agency on Friday confirmed the figure — which will bring its total staff down to 50,000 from 57,000.

Previous reports that the Social Security Administration planned for a 50% reduction to its headcount are “false,” the agency said.

Nevertheless, the aim of 7,000 job cuts has prompted concerns about the agency’s ability to continue to provide services, particularly benefit payments, to tens of millions of older Americans when its staff is already at a 50-year low.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that it takes for them to have their claim processed,” said Greg Senden, a paralegal analyst who has worked at the Social Security Administration for 27 years.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that they have to wait to get benefits,” said Senden, who also helps the American Federation of Government Employees oversee Social Security employees in six central states.

Officials at the White House and the Social Security Administration were not available for comment at press time.

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The Social Security Administration on Friday said it anticipates “much of” the staff reductions needed to reach its target will come from resignations, retirement and offers for Voluntary Separation Incentive Payments, or VSIP. 

More reductions could come from “reduction-in-force actions that could include abolishment of organizations and positions” or reassignments to other positions, the agency said. Federal agencies must submit their reduction-in-force plans by March 13 to the Office of Personnel Management for approval.

Cuts may affect benefit payments, experts say

Former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley last week told CNBC.com that the continuity of benefit payments could be at risk for the first time in the program’s history.

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Other experts say the changes could affect benefits, though it remains to be seen exactly how.

“It’s unclear to me whether the staff cuts are more likely to result in an interruption of benefits, or an increase in improper payments,” said Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare.

Improper payments happen when the agency either overpays or underpays benefits due to inaccurate information.

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With fewer staff, the Social Security Administration will have to choose between making sure all claims are processed, which may lead to more improper payments, or avoiding those errors, which could lead to processing delays, Blahous said.

Disability benefits, which require more agency staff attention both to process initial claims and to continue to verify beneficiaries are eligible, may be more susceptible to errors compared to retirement benefits, he added.

Cuts may have minimal impact on trust funds

Under the Trump administration, Social Security also plans to consolidate its geographic footprint to four regions down from 10 regional offices, the agency said on Friday.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how much savings the overall reforms will generate.

The Social Security Administration’s funding for administrative costs comes out of its trust funds, which are also used to pay benefits. Based on current projections, the trust funds will be depleted in the next decade and Social Security will not be able to pay full benefits at that time, unless Congress acts sooner.

The efforts to cut costs at the Social Security Administration would likely only help the trust fund solvency “in some miniscule way,” said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration.

What President Donald Trump is likely looking to do broadly is reset the baseline on government spending and employment, he said.

“I’m not disagreeing with the idea that the agency could be more efficient,” Biggs said. “I just wonder whether you can come up with that by cutting the positions first and figuring out how to have the efficiencies later.”

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Student loan borrowers pursuing PSLF are ‘panicking.’ Here’s what to know

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Students walk through the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

As the Trump administration overhauls the student loan system, many borrowers pursuing the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program are worried about its future.

“There’s a lot of panicking by PSLF borrowers due to the uncertainty,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

Here’s what borrowers in the program need to know about recent changes affecting the program.

IDR repayment plan applications down

Some borrowers’ PSLF progress has stalled

While the legal challenges against SAVE were playing out, the Biden administration paused the payments for enrollees through a forbearance, as well as the accrual of any interest.

Unlike the payment pause during the pandemic, borrowers in this forbearance aren’t getting credit toward their required 120 payments for loan forgiveness under PSLF. It’s unclear when the forbearance will end.

But while the applications for other IDR plans remain unavailable, borrowers in SAVE are stuck on their timeline toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. If you were on an IDR plan other than SAVE, you will continue to get credit during this period if you’re making payments and working in eligible employment.

The Education Department is now tweaking the applications to make sure all their repayment plans comply with the new court order, an agency spokesperson told CNBC last week.

It will likely be months before the Department has reworked all the applications and made them available again, Kantrowitz said.

Those who switch to the Standard plan will continue to get PSLF credit, but the payments are often too high for those working in the public sector or for a nonprofit to afford, experts said.

‘Buy back’ opportunity can help

While it’s frustrating not to be inching toward loan forgiveness for the time being, an option down the road may help, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

The Education Department’s Buyback opportunity lets people pay for certain months that didn’t count, if doing so brings them up to 120 qualifying payments.

For example, time spent in forbearances or deferments that suspended your progress can essentially be cashed in for qualifying payments.

The extra payment must total at least as much as what you have paid monthly under an IDR plan, according to Studentaid.gov.

Borrowers who’ve now been pursuing PSLF for 10 years or more should put in their buyback request sooner than later, Kantrowitz said.

“The benefit is likely to be eliminated by the Trump administration,” he said.

Keep records

Borrowers have already long complained of inaccurate payment counts under the PSLF program. While the student loan repayment options are tweaked, people could see more errors, Kantrowitz said.

“A borrower’s payment history and other student loan details are more likely to get corrupted during a transition,” he said.

As a result, he said, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov.

“It would also be a good idea to create a spreadsheet showing all of the qualifying payments so they have their own count,” Kantrowitz said.

With the PSLF help tool, borrowers can search for a list of qualifying employers and access the employer certification form. Try to fill out this form at least once a year, Kantrowitz added.

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Treasury Department halts enforcement of BOI reporting for businesses

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The US Treasury building in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. 

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Sunday announced it won’t enforce the penalties or fines associated with the Biden-era “beneficial ownership information,” or BOI, reporting requirements for millions of domestic businesses. 

Enacted via the Corporate Transparency Act in 2021 to fight illicit finance and shell company formation, BOI reporting requires small businesses to identify who directly or indirectly owns or controls the company to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN.

After previous court delays, the Treasury in late February set a March 21 deadline to comply or risk civil penalties of up to $591 a day, adjusted for inflation, or criminal fines of up to $10,000 and up to two years in prison. The reporting requirements could apply to roughly 32.6 million businesses, according to federal estimates.     

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The rule was enacted to “make it harder for bad actors to hide or benefit from their ill-gotten gains through shell companies or other opaque ownership structures,” according to FinCEN.

In addition to not enforcing BOI penalties and fines, the Treasury said it would issue a proposed regulation to apply the rule to foreign reporting companies only. 

President Donald Trump praised the news in a Truth Social post on Sunday night, describing the reporting rule as “outrageous and invasive” and “an absolute disaster” for small businesses.

Other experts say the Treasury’s decision could have ramifications for national security.

“This decision threatens to make the United States a magnet for foreign criminals, from drug cartels to fraudsters to terrorist organizations,” Scott Greytak, director of advocacy for anticorruption organization Transparency International U.S., said in a statement.

Greg Iacurci contributed to this reporting.

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