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The unemployment rate barely rose, but only 175,000 jobs were added in April

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A lackluster 175,000 jobs were added in April, many in the healthcare sector.  (iStock)

The U.S. added 175,000 jobs in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. That’s a small jump compared to the average monthly increase of 242,000 that occurred over the last 12 months.

In April, the unemployment rate sat at 3.9%, up slightly from 3.8% in March, putting the total number of unemployed individuals at 6.5 million. Those who qualify as long-term unemployed — individuals without a job for 27 weeks or more — hovered at 1.3 million, practically unchanged from last month.

Of the industries faced with job losses, the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sectors were hit particularly hard, registering a 3.5% drop in jobs.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing jobs also declined by 1%. Other manufacturing industries, namely electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing saw a decline in jobs by 1.2%.

The healthcare industry added the largest number of jobs in April at 56,000. The industry has been adding a consistent 63,000 jobs per month over the last year.

Social assistance jobs also rose in April, by 31,000. Family services jobs led the social assistance sector, adding 23,000 jobs. Following closely was the transportation and warehouse industry, adding 22,000 jobs in total.

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RISING NUMBER OF WORKERS DEPEND ON SIDE JOBS

Consumers are becoming more cautious about spending

American consumers aren’t spending as freely as they were a few months ago and are choosing to stick to smaller purchases. Additionally, those with lower credit scores are refraining from spending unless necessary, Citi reported in its annual stockholder meeting.

High credit card balances are making extra spending difficult for many, according to Citi. Americans’ total credit card balances stood at $1.13 trillion at the end of last year, an increase of $50 billion, or 4.6%.

Although credit card delinquency rates fell in March, indicating that some borrowers are recovering, they’re still notoriously high. The average delinquency rate dropped from 3.09% in February to 2.92% in March. This rate is 2.49% higher than a year ago and is still higher than pre-pandemic rates.

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MANY PERSONAL LOAN BORROWERS RELY ON LOANS FOR EVERYDAY EXPENSES AS COST OF LIVING GROWS

Interest rates remain stubbornly high

Despite predictions that interest rates would be lower by now, the Federal Reserve has yet to cut rates. The Fed attributes this to inflation, which is still higher than they’d like to see.

Mortgage rates remain one of the highest rates consumers are dealing with. Although mortgage rates are separate from the rates the Fed deals with, they often follow closely. Until the Federal Reserve drops rates, mortgage rates aren’t likely to go down anytime soon.

“If the Fed does not cut rates this year, the housing market will likely remain status quo: Gridlocked on the resale side and builders buying down rates allowing the new construction side to continue its out performance,” Devyn Bachman, the chief operating officer of John Burns Research & Consulting, said.

Currently, mortgage rates hover above 7% for 30-year, fixed rate loans. Rates aren’t the highest they’ve ever been, but they’re much higher than the drastic lows seen during the pandemic.

“The housing market has always been interest rate-sensitive. When rates go up, we tend to see less activity,” Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist, said.

“The housing market is even more rate sensitive now because many people are locked into low mortgage rates and because first-time buyers are really stretched by high prices and borrowing costs,” Hale said. 

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MILLIONS HAVE MOVED OUT OF CERTAIN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY NOW DESIGNATED “CLIMATE ABANDONMENT AREAS”

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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India may have fastest growing e-commerce sector

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India: the "perfect" emerging market

Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.

According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.

“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. 

His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.

‘DoorDash of India’

One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.

“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”

Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.

“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”

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How the Federal Reserve’s rate policy affects mortgages

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The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target three times in 2024.

This has many Americans waiting for mortgage rates to fall. But that may not happen for some time.

“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.

Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.

Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.

In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”

Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.

“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.

“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.

Watch the video above to learn how the Fed’s decisions affect mortgage rates.

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Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

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Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

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Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

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