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TIPS can provide an investor protection against inflation

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The Fed is 'very comfortable' staying on hold for an extended period: JPMorgan's Kelsey Berro

Although inflation has eased considerably, in many ways, it is still alive and well.

The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, has fallen gradually from a 9.1% pandemic-era peak in June 2022 to 3% in January. But it is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“The progress toward 2% inflation has stalled out, and the Fed knows it,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. Federal Reserve officials have also expressed concern about the impact tariffs may now have on inflation.

How TIPS work

TIPS are issued and backed by the U.S. government like typical Treasury bonds, however, these securities are meant to hedge against rising consumer prices.

To compare, regular Treasury bonds could lose value over time if the interest they earn is below the rate of inflation. Currently, the bellwether 10-year Treasury bond is yielding just below 4.5%. (The same goes for the low yields on certificates of deposits when it comes to protecting long-term buying power.)

Alternatively, the principal portion of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. In this case, as inflation rises, the value of the principal will rise as well to maintain its value.

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For example, an investor buys $1,000 in TIPS at a fixed rate of 1%. If inflation rises by 2%, the principal will rise to $1,020. The rate will stay the same 1%, but future interest payments are multiplied by the new principal amount of $1,020, so payments are $10.20 for the year (or $5.10 every six months, since TIPS pay interest twice a year).

TIPS are issued in 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities and when a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.

TIPS are a ‘valuable tool’

The threat of tariffs on imports is causing more investors to consider increasing their exposure to TIPS to mitigate inflation concerns, according to a recent report by Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“TIPS continue to be a valuable tool for protecting purchasing power in an inflationary environment,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York.

“With yields currently near decade highs, they’re certainly more attractive than in recent years,” said Boneparth, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

US President Donald Trump speaks while signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House to impose 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminum, broadening his trade restrictions to some of the country’s top trading partners.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

However, TIPS aren’t immune from losses even in an inflationary environment, according to Colin Gerrety, a certified financial planner and client advisor at Glassman Wealth Services in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

“Just look at 2022 as an example,” he said.

“Let’s say inflation spikes and interest rates rise at the same time,” he said, as they did that year. “TIPS might actually lose money if the negative impact from the rise in rates exceeds the adjustment that occurs due to inflation.”

In 2022, rising interest rates hurt TIPS and other bonds; TIPS had a -11.85% return that year, although that was still better than U.S. Treasurys.

How to use TIPS as an investment option

Consider the potential impact of tariffs on inflation going forward, said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California.

She recommends a strategy that combines fixed-income TIPS with dividend-paying stocks and laddered CDs for short-term cash flow needs. Sun is also a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council

“I usually advise clients to view TIPS as one part of a diversified portfolio rather than a standalone solution,” Boneparth also said.

“While they offer the benefit of inflation-adjusted returns, it’s important to consider factors like tax treatment and the potential for lower returns if inflation moderates,” he added.

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Don’t wait to file your taxes this season, experts say. Here’s why

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Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Tax identity theft remains a ‘serious problem’

One key reason to file your return early is to avoid tax identity theft, experts say. By filing sooner, you can block thieves from using your Social Security number to file a fraudulent return, Brewer said.  

Tax-related identity theft continues to be a “serious problem,” with many victims facing processing and refund delays, National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote in her January report to Congress.   

At the end of fiscal year 2024, the average processing time to resolve identity theft victim assistance cases was more than 22 months, up from 19 months the previous year, Collins reported.

For the 2024 filing season, the IRS confirmed more than 15,600 identity theft returns through Feb. 29, 2024, up from about 12,600 in 2023, according to a Treasury report issued on April 30.  

‘Measure twice, cut once’

Whether you’re filing early because you’re eager for a refund or want to protect yourself from identity theft, you’ll still need a complete and accurate return to avoid delays, experts say.

While many tax forms come in January, others won’t arrive until mid-February to March or longer, according to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. 

But once you have the necessary forms, “don’t be in a hurry to press ‘send,'” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals. 

You should always double-check key details like your name, Social Security number, banking information and other filing data. When it comes to return accuracy, aim to “measure twice, cut once,” he said.

Tax Tip: Free filing

IRS layoffs could impact service

With thousands of IRS layoffs this week, some experts worry the cuts could impact taxpayer service.

But your refund shouldn’t be affected if you file an accurate return electronically and select direct deposit for payment, O’Saben said.

Typically, you can expect the IRS to process your e-filed return within 21 days. “Corrections or extra review” could take longer, according to the agency.

“Barring a [system] crash, I would expect business as usual,” O’Saben said. “There shouldn’t be an issue meeting the timeline that the IRS lays out.”  

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Federal workers’ money questions answered

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Protesters demonstrate in support of federal workers outside of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Feb. 14, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

On Feb. 11, Elizabeth Aniskevich, an attorney at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, received a notice that she was being terminated immediately.

“I was completely shocked,” said Aniskevich, 39. She had been with the CFPB for nine months and imagined spending her entire career in the federal government.

“I didn’t expect it to unfold this way,” she said.

More than a week later, she’s still scrambling for basic answers. “There’s no information about what’s going on with my benefits, or what I need to do with unemployment,” Aniskevich said.

She’s worried about how she’ll pay the mortgage on her Washington, D.C., apartment after her emergency savings runs out in a few months.

“I’ve worked really hard to be financially stable,” Aniskevich said.

Elizabeth Aniskevich.

Courtesy: Elizabeth Aniskevich

Aniskevich is one of thousands of federal workers laid off by the new Trump administration in recent weeks and thrown into financial and career uncertainty. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk‘s secretive government-slashing effort, the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, are working to shrink the federal workforce.

Losing one’s job is always difficult. But the suddenness and speed of the firings, which have affected offices from the Environmental Protection Agency to the U.S. Department of Education, have left workers especially in the dark about their rights and next steps, experts said.

“Most people would have selected the public sector because it has a reputation of being a more stable work environment than the private sector,” said Don Moynihan, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan. “But in this case, that stability proved to be an illusion.”

CNBC spoke with financial advisors and policy experts to get answers to some of the many important questions terminated federal workers likely have right now.

Workers may be able to appeal, take legal action

The Trump administration and Musk’s DOGE have largely targeted workers on a probationary status for cuts.

That’s because probationary workers, who have typically been in their position for a year or less, have fewer protections after they’re removed than do career civil servants, said David Eric Lewis, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University.

For example, probationary workers might not meet the requirements to appeal their termination to the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board. The board reviews cases in which federal workers were laid off or suspended.

Still, there are limited cases when they can appeal, experts said. You should speak to an employment lawyer or your union representative for more details, experts recommend.

The name and logo for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seen scraped off the door of its building in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 20, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

“They can also seek legal relief,” Lewis said. Your union may help you file your lawsuit in federal court, he added.

It can be more effective to bring your legal challenge as a group, with other terminated federal workers, Lewis said.

“That’s what is happening,” he said. “There’s a hope that there is at least a stop to these orders.”

A federal judge Thursday denied bid by labor unions to block the mass layoffs across the federal workforce. The National Treasury Employees Union alongside four other groups filed a lawsuit against the firings on Feb. 12.

What to know about unemployment benefits

Federal workers can collect unemployment benefits through the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program. Some government employees — including ex-military personnel discharged under honorable conditions and former members of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration — receive benefits through a separate program, known as the Unemployment Compensation for Ex-servicemembers (UCX).

The jobless benefits, which are supposed to arrive within two or three weeks after you apply for them, are nearly identical to those of private-sector workers, said Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance. 

States — as well as U.S. territories and the District of Columbia — administer the payments. Workers must submit an application with the appropriate workforce agency. You should apply in the state or district where your last official duty station was located, Evermore said.

Those working remotely on a full-time basis likely need to file a claim in their state of residence, Evermore said.

Workers should apply for unemployment as soon as possible, experts said. Delays are likely amid the purge of government workers.

Those claiming UCFE benefits will likely need to include certain documents with their claim, including a SF-8, or a Notice to Federal Employee About Unemployment Insurance, as well as a SF-50, or a Notification of Personnel Action, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

Those applying for UCX benefits should have a copy of their service and discharge documents — DD-214 or a similar form, the Labor Department said

Federal employers are supposed to provide these forms to workers upon separation, but Aniskevich said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau still hadn’t given her those documents as of Friday.

For now, she filed her unemployment application in Washington, D.C., without them.

“It’s stressful to have uncertainty about whether my claim can be processed given the lack of forms,” Aniskevich said.

Federal agencies appear to be citing lackluster performance as rationale for many job cuts in termination letters, experts said. Even so, workers should still apply for benefits, Evermore said. The cause must generally rise to the level of “gross misconduct” to prevent people from receiving aid.

This could delay benefits if the government contests a claim, however, experts said.

Health coverage for terminated workers

Meanwhile Chris, who worked as a transportation program specialist at the Federal Transit Administration, was laid off on February 14. Like Aniskevich, he was a probationary worker, and had been employed by the FTA for around nine months. (He requested to use his first name only, out of fear of retaliation from the Trump administration.)

Despite the financial stability usually associated with a federal job, he found himself with no protections.

“There was no severance pay,” said Chris, 33, who is based in the Los Angeles area.

Chris did learn that his health benefits will continue for 31 calendar days after Valentine’s Day.

Similarly, federal employees should try to determine the specific date their health coverage will end, experts said. While the timelines may vary, most probationary workers will need to find new health insurance soon.

Those who wish to continue with their current health care should look into the federal government’s Temporary Continuation of Coverage, experts say. Under this option, you’re able to extend your federal workplace plan for up to 18 months after termination. (It’s similar to COBRA, or the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, for private-sector workers.)

Keep in mind that, with TCC, you’ll be responsible for the full cost of your premiums, plus any administrative fees.

“It’s going to be [a] pretty big hike,” said Brennan Rhule, a Reston, Virginia-based certified financial planner who specializes in federal workers.

If the new premium cost is too high to shoulder under TCC, you may qualify for a special enrollment period of the Affordable Care Act marketplace, according to Kate Ende, leader of the policy team at the Consumers for Affordable Health Care, a nonprofit. The special enrollment period typically gives you 60 days to sign up for a marketplace plan after you lost your coverage.

Medicaid might also be an option, Ende said, and if you qualify you can enroll at any time for it.

Relief options for recurring bills

Federal workers concerned about staying current with their bills should reach out to their lenders and explain their situation, consumer advocates said.

For instance, contact your mortgage lender and ask about forbearance or deferment options, said John Breyault, vice president of public policy at the National Consumers League. If you’re a renter, landlords and property managers may offer temporary payment plans or deferments. 

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Some auto lenders allow deferments, too, especially if you have a good payment track record. Meanwhile, your auto insurer may be able to adjust your coverage and lower your costs if you will no longer be driving long distances to work, Breyault said. 

For utilities like electricity, water, gas, internet and phone service, see if your providers offer a grace period or deferred payments, Breyault said. 

Those with student loan bills can request an unemployment deferment with their servicer.

Keep in mind that such concessions and breaks can be helpful in the near-term, but read the terms thoroughly. There could be long-term costs associated, such as interest continuing to accrue or other fees. 

Watch out for ‘undoable’ retirement account missteps

Federal workers who find themselves unexpectedly out of work may be tempted to take money from their retirement plans. However, experts emphasize it is important to know the ins and outs of each plan’s rules to avoid unexpected costs.

“Before you do anything, make sure you talk to somebody who understands and can guide you,” said CFP Mark Keen, who is a federal benefits expert with the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association.

“Make sure that you don’t make any mistakes that are undoable,” said Keen, who is also a partner at Keen & Pocock.

Federal workers generally have access to a pension through the Federal Employee Retirement System, or FERS, and to a defined contribution savings plan, known as the Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP.

FERS provides a guaranteed income stream once a worker reaches a certain age, a perk that’s mostly unavailable in the private sector, Keen said.

Mass government layoffs: Impact on the labor force and the economy

Federal workers may withdraw their FERS contributions if they leave federal employment, but that may not be the best choice. It will take a while to build your pension back up if you return to federal service, said Katelyn Murray, a chartered federal employee benefits consultant and director of relationship management at Serving Those Who Serve.

If you leave the balance intact, you retain the years of service you’ve accumulated, Murray said. Having a FERS pension also allows retirees to continue health coverage through the Federal Employees Health Benefits, or FEHB, in retirement.

Even if you’re not sure you may return to federal work, you may want to think twice before cashing out, Murray said.

“It’s more about flexibility and keeping your options open,” Murray said.

Federal workers may have some flexibility with a Thrift Savings Plan that is like a 401(k) plan and allows employees to make contributions that are matched by government agencies.

Generally, participants who are at least age 59½ can make withdrawals without penalties.

In some cases, workers may qualify for the Rule of 55, which may allow them to take withdrawals from the TSP without having to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty, provided they are at least age 55 when they leave their job (or age 50 for some public safety employees).

If you haven’t found another job yet, you can’t take a TSP loan, but you may be able to look at doing a hardship withdrawal, Murray said. Importantly, by doing so you may incur taxes and/or penalties, as well as delay your anticipated retirement date.

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How IRS layoffs could impact tax filings and refunds this season

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Vithun Khamsong | Moment | Getty Images

Thousands of IRS employees are expected to lose their jobs as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, continues widespread cuts to federal spending

The move comes roughly three weeks since the opening of tax season and could impact millions of taxpayers who will file before the April 15 deadline, experts say.

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IRS funding has been targeted by Republican lawmakers since former President Joe Biden approved $80 billion for the agency via the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, in 2022.

The IRS layoffs have targeted probationary workers with less than one year of service — or longer in some cases. There were an estimated 15,000 probationary employees at the agency, many who were hired via IRA funds, according to a lawsuit filed by the National Treasury Employees Union and others on Feb. 12.

An estimated 6,000 to 7,000 IRS workers may be impacted, according to reporting from CBS News and the Associated Press.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury didn’t respond to CNBC’s request to confirm these numbers.

These mid-season staffing cuts could significantly impact filers, experts warn. So, with major IRS changes underway, here are some key things to know.

‘You may not notice a change’

Senate Finance Committee Democrats on Tuesday warned that IRS staffing cuts would cause a “tax refund train wreck.” Tax experts, however, say filing an accurate, electronic return should avoid any such issues. 

“If you have a good submission, you may not notice any change,” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.

Typically, it takes 21 days for the IRS to process an e-filed tax return. But that timeline could be longer for “corrections or extra review,” according to the agency.

Reduced staffing could make processing longer if there’s an issue with your return, experts say.

The IRS system could flag your return for incorrect personal details or missing information, which could require contact with the agency for assistance, O’Saben said.

“We haven’t seen any service delays yet,” he said. “But we’re going to. It’s just going to be a reality with less people.”   

File soon if you’re expecting a refund

If you expect a tax refund and have all the correct forms, “get that return in as quickly as possible,” said San Diego-based tax attorney Adam Brewer.

“Even if the staffing cuts don’t impact process, there’s the potential for a government shutdown next month” as lawmakers debate spending negotiations, he said. “That will compound problems.”

Error-free, electronically filed returns may not be impacted by a government shutdown. But there could be further delays if there’s an issue with your filing, experts say.

Typically, the best way to speed up your refund is by filing electronically and choosing direct deposit for your payment, according to the IRS.

You can check the status of your refund via the agency’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool or the IRS2Go app.

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