Donald Trump’s ever-growing litany of tax proposals includes something for almost every American family: tipped workers, hourly employees, senior citizens — and now even the higher-income residents of Democratic-led states whose tax breaks he took away while president.
And he’s not done yet: Trump will make a speech on Tuesday in Georgia to outline his vision to use tax breaks and other incentives to bolster U.S. manufacturing.
The former president has thrown out such a wide range of tax proposals that even his own advisers are unsure about which ones he intends to enact if elected. Some of the pronouncements have come as surprises and caused angst among allies.
Within Trump’s orbit, the former president’s menu of tax ideas is seen as a way to appeal to voters in an extremely tight election — particularly, low-and-middle-income Americans frustrated by high prices looking for financial relief.
“I see it as a way of Trump trying to figure out how he can win over more working-class Americans,” said Stephen Moore, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and an informal economic adviser who briefs Trump every few months on the state of the economy. “Some of the ideas are good. Some of the ideas are not so good. On balance, most of the ideas are good.”
Not since President George H. W. Bush asked voters to read his lips has a president made such big promises on taxes in an election campaign. For Trump, as with Bush, the question is whether he can keep them. (Bush, despite his “no new taxes” pledge, increased levies.)
“Principles of sound tax policy, economics — that’s no longer in the driver’s seat. Politics is in the driver’s seat. That’s why we’re seeing carve-outs and things that sound good on the campaign trail,” said Erica York of the Tax Foundation, a right-of-center think tank.
If elected, Trump would go into negotiations with Congress regarding a wish list totaling $11 trillion and counting, according to the Tax Foundation. That includes the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, which will expire unless Congress acts. He has also pledged as much as $2.8 trillion in additional revenue from tariffs to offset a portion of that cost. The former president and his allies have said his tax-cut proposals would bolster economic growth, helping to offset some of the cost, though his campaign hasn’t provided any details.
The Trump campaign said he isn’t making empty promises.
“President Trump delivered on his promise to cut taxes in his first term and he will deliver again in his second term,” said spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.
Vice President Kamala Harris has also made tax policy a central part of her campaign, pledging to increase the Child Tax Credit, create incentives to first-time home-buyers and expand deductions for startup businesses. She even co-opted one of Trump’s signature ideas — no taxes on tips, giving the proposal bipartisan momentum. Harris is planning her own economic-focused address this week.
The Tax Foundation found that Harris’ tax plan would decrease the deficit because the reductions are more than offset by higher levies on corporations and wealthy households.
Pinch of SALT
Trump has targeted his proposals at key election constituencies. When in Nevada, a state with the highest percentage of service and hospitality workers, he made a surprise proposal to end taxes on tips. He’s offered to eliminate taxes on Social Security, a boon to retirees. To woo blue-collar workers, he proposed ending taxes on overtime.
And in his latest proposal, he reversed himself on one of the more controversial provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, his signature tax rewrite of 2017.
By capping the deduction of state and local taxes at $10,000, Trump helped to offset a higher standard deduction and lower overall rates in the 2017 bill. The SALT cap also had a political dimension: The taxpayers most affected are in districts with higher home values and higher tax rates — and are predominately run and represented by Democrats.
But the 2022 midterm elections helped sweep a number of Republicans into some of those districts, especially in New York State, where lawmakers have lobbied Trump to change course.
“It disproportionately hurts states like New York,” said Rep. Michael Lawler, a Republican representing the Hudson Valley who said he raised the issue with Trump last month. “So, I’m heartened, obviously, to hear the former president say he will work with us to fix it.”
As for how the restored SALT deduction would be paid for, Lawler said: “Nobody knows.”
Moore said some of Trump’s economic advisers have discussed reviving SALT in a scaled-back fashion, allowing homeowners to deduct up to $15,000 or $20,000 annually, instead of the $10,000 permitted now.
One idea which Trump genuinely is wedded to, advisers say, is his proposal of no longer taxing tips. That idea has been under consideration since the primaries, his advisers say, but they held off on announcing it until the more competitive general election.
Tax base
How far Trump can go will depend on which party controls Congress next year, but his tax plan could face obstacles in both parties over concerns about costs and fairness.
Many of his proposed carve-outs go against the grain of four decades of tax policy, prompted by President Ronald Reagan who vowed to “broaden the base” by eliminating targeted tax breaks and lower rates for everyone.
Any move to exclude a certain type or source of income from taxes will undoubtedly change how people work. A no-tax-on-tips policy, for example, could prompt more workers to agree to lower wage in exchange for the promise of more tips. An hourly worker could rearrange his or her schedule to maximize overtime — and might even agree to a lower hourly rate to do so.
“Could some employers get creative? I suppose so. At the end of the day, to be honest, I’m more concerned about the incentives the other way,” said Rep. Russ Fulcher, an Idaho Republican who has a bill to eliminate taxes on overtime pay. “As exacerbated by Covid, we have these programs in place that encourage not working, and that’s a problem in itself.”
Senate Republicans unveiled a budget blueprint designed to fast-track a renewal of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and an increase to the nation’s borrowing limit, ahead of a planned vote on the resolution later this week.
The Senate plan will allow for a $4 trillion extension of Trump’s tax cuts and an additional $1.5 trillion in further levy reductions. The House plan called for $4.5 trillion in total cuts.
Republicans say they are assuming that the cost of extending the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts will cost zero dollars.
The draft is a sign that divisions within the Senate GOP over the size and scope of spending cuts to offset tax reductions are closer to being resolved.
Lawmakers, however, have yet to face some of the most difficult decisions, including which spending to cut and which tax reductions to prioritize. That will be negotiated in the coming weeks after both chambers approve identical budget resolutions unlocking the process.
The Senate budget plan would also increase the debt ceiling by up to $5 trillion, compared with the $4 trillion hike in the House plan. Senate Republicans say they want to ensure that Congress does not need to vote on the debt ceiling again before the 2026 midterm elections.
“This budget resolution unlocks the process to permanently extend proven, pro-growth tax policy,” Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo, an Idaho Republican, said.
The blueprint is the latest in a multi-step legislative process for Republicans to pass a renewal of Trump’s tax cuts through Congress. The bill will renew the president’s 2017 reductions set to expire at the end of this year, which include lower rates for households and deductions for privately held businesses.
Republicans are also hoping to include additional tax measures to the bill, including raising the state and local tax deduction cap and some of Trump’s campaign pledges to eliminate taxes on certain categories of income, including tips and overtime pay.
The plan would allow for the debt ceiling hike to be vote on separately from the rest of the tax and spending package. That gives lawmakers flexibility to move more quickly on the debt ceiling piece if a federal default looms before lawmakers can agree on the tax package.
Political realities
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Wednesday, after meeting with Trump at the White House to discuss the tax blueprint, that he’s not sure yet if he has the votes to pass the measure.
Thune in a statement said the budget has been blessed by the top Senate ruleskeeper but Democrats said that it is still vulnerable to being challenged later.
The biggest differences in the Senate budget from the competing House plan are in the directives for spending cuts, a reflection of divisions among lawmakers over reductions to benefit programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.
The Senate plan pares back a House measure that calls for at least $2 trillion in spending reductions over a decade, a massive reduction that would likely mean curbing popular entitlement programs.
The Senate GOP budget grants significantly more flexibility. It instructs key committees that oversee entitlement programs to come up with at least $4 billion in cuts. Republicans say they expect the final tax package to contain much larger curbs on spending.
The Senate budget would also allow $150 billion in new spending for the military and $175 billion for border and immigration enforcement.
If the minimum spending cuts are achieved along with the maximum tax cuts, the plan would add $5.8 trillion in new deficits over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The Senate is planning a vote on the plan in the coming days. Then it goes to the House for a vote as soon as next week. There, it could face opposition from spending hawks like South Carolina’s Ralph Norman, who are signaling they want more aggressive cuts.
House Speaker Mike Johnson can likely afford just two or three defections on the budget vote given his slim majority and unified Democratic opposition.
Financial advisors and clients worried about stock volatility and inflation can climb bond ladders to safety — but they won’t find any, if those steps lead to a place with higher taxes.
The choice of asset location for bond ladders in a client portfolio can prove so important that some wealthy customers holding them in a taxable brokerage account may wind up losing money in an inflationary period due to the payments to Uncle Sam, according to a new academic study. And those taxes, due to what the author described as the “dead loss” from the so-called original issue discount compared to the value, come with an extra sting if advisors and clients thought the bond ladder had prepared for the rise in inflation.
Bond ladders — whether they are based on Treasury inflation-protected securities like the strategy described in the study or another fixed-income security — provide small but steady returns tied to the regular cadence of maturities in the debt-based products. However, advisors and their clients need to consider where any interest payments, coupon income or principal accretion from the bond ladders could wind up as ordinary income, said Cal Spranger, a fixed income and wealth manager with Seattle-based Badgley + Phelps Wealth Managers.
“Thats going to be the No. 1 concern about, where is the optimal place to hold them,” Spranger said in an interview. “One of our primary objectives for a bond portfolio is to smooth out that volatility. … We’re trying to reduce risk with the bond portfolio, not increase risks.”
Risk-averse planners, then, could likely predict the conclusion of the working academic paper, which was posted in late February by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus in the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University: Tax-deferred retirement accounts such as a 401(k) or a traditional individual retirement account are usually the best location for a Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder. The appreciation attributes available through an after-tax Roth IRA work better for equities than a bond ladder designed for decumulation, and the potential payments to Uncle Sam in brokerage accounts make them an even worse asset location.
“Few planners will be surprised to learn that locating a TIPS ladder in a taxable account leads to phantom income and excess payment of tax, with a consequent reduction in after-tax real spending power,” McQuarrie writes. “Some may be surprised to learn just how baleful that mistake in account location can be, up to and including negative payouts in the early years for high tax brackets and very high rates of inflation. In the worst cases, more is due in tax than the ladder payout provides. And many will be surprised to learn how rapidly the penalty for choosing the wrong asset location increases at higher rates of inflation — precisely the motivation for setting up a TIPS ladder in the first place. Perhaps the most surprising result of all was the discovery that excess tax payments in the early years are never made up. [Original issue discount] causes a dead loss.”
The Roth account may look like a healthy alternative, since the clients wouldn’t owe any further taxes on distributions from them in retirement. But the bond ladder would defeat the whole purpose of that vehicle, McQuarrie writes.
“Planners should recognize that a Roth account is a peculiarly bad location for a bond ladder, whether real or nominal,” he writes. “Ladders are decumulation tools designed to provide a stream of distributions, which the Roth account does not otherwise require. Locating a bond ladder in the Roth thus forfeits what some consider to be one of the most valuable features of the Roth account. If the bond ladder is the only asset in the Roth, then the Roth itself will have been liquidated as the ladder reaches its end.”
That means that the Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder will add the most value to portfolios in a tax-deferred account (TDA), which McQuarrie acknowledges is not a shocking recommendation to anyone familiar with them. On the other hand, some planners with clients who need to begin required minimum distributions from their traditional IRA may reap further benefits than expected from that location.
“More interesting is the demonstration that the after-tax real income received from a TIPS ladder located in a TDA does not vary with the rate of inflation, in contrast to what happens in a taxable account,” McQuarrie writes. “Also of note was the ability of most TIPS ladders to handle the RMDs due, and, at higher rates of inflation, to shelter other assets from the need to take RMDs.”
The present time of high yields from Treasury inflation-protected securities could represent an ample opportunity to tap into that scenario.
“If TIPS yields are attractive when the ladder is set up, distributions from the ladder will typically satisfy RMDs on the ladder balance throughout the 30 years,” McQuarrie writes. “The higher the inflation experienced, the greater the surplus coverage, allowing other assets in the account to be sheltered in part from RMDs by means of the TIPS ladder payout. However, if TIPS yields are borderline unattractive at ladder set up, and if the ladder proved unnecessary because inflation fell to historically low levels, then there may be a shortfall in RMD coverage in the middle years, requiring either that TIPS bonds be sold prematurely, or that other assets in the TDA be tapped to cover the RMD.”
Other caveats to the strategies revolve around any possible state taxes on withdrawals or any number of client circumstances ruling out a universal recommendation. The main message of McQuarrie’s study serves as a warning against putting the ladder in a taxable brokerage account.
“Unsurprisingly, the higher the client’s tax rate, the worse the outcomes from locating a TIPS ladder in taxable when inflation rages,” he writes. “High-bracket taxpayers who accurately foresee a surge in future inflation, and take steps to defend against it, but who make the mistake of locating their TIPS ladder in taxable, can end up paying more in tax to the government than is received from the TIPS ladder during the first year or two.”
For municipal or other types of tax-exempt bonds, though, a taxable account is “the optimal place,” Spranger said. Convertible Treasury or corporate bonds show more similarity with the Treasury inflation-protected securities in that their ideal location is in a tax-deferred account, he noted.
Regardless, bonds act as a crucial core to a client’s portfolio, tamping down on the risk of volatility and sensitivity to interest rates. And the right ladder strategies yield more reliable future rates of returns for clients than a bond ETF or mutual fund, Spranger said.
“We’re strong proponents of using individual bonds, No. 1 so that we can create bond ladders, but, most importantly, for the certainty that individual bonds provide,” he said.
Loan applicants and mortgage companies often rely on an Internal Revenue Service that’s dramatically downsizing to help facilitate the lending process, but they may be in luck.
That’s because the division responsible for the main form used to allow consumers to authorize the release of income-tax information to lenders is tied to essential IRS operations.
The Income Verification Express Service could be insulated from what NMN affiliate Accounting Today has described of a series of fluctuating IRS cuts because it’s part of the submission processing unit within wage and investment, a division central to the tax bureau’s purpose.
“It’s unlikely that IVES will be impacted due to association within submission processing,” said Curtis Knuth, president and CEO of NCS, a consumer reporting agency. “Processing tax returns and collecting revenue is the core function and purpose of the IRS.”
Knuth is a member of the IVES participant working group, which is comprised of representatives from companies that facilitate processing of 4506-C forms used to request tax transcripts for mortgages. Those involved represent a range of company sizes and business models.
The IRS has planned to slash thousands of jobs and make billions of dollars of cuts that are still in process, some of which have been successfully challenged in court.
While the current cuts might not be a concern for processing the main form of tax transcript requests this time around, there have been past issues with it in other situations like 2019’s lengthy government shutdown.
President Trump recently signed a continuing funding resolution to avert a shutdown. But it will run out later this year, so the issue could re-emerge if there’s an impasse in Congress at that time. Republicans largely dominate Congress but their lead is thinner in the Senate.
The mortgage industry will likely have an additional option it didn’t have in 2019 if another extended deadlock on the budget emerges and impedes processing of the central tax transcript form.
“It absolutely affected closings, because you couldn’t get the transcripts. You couldn’t get anybody on the phone,” said Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president of National One Mortgage Corp.’s Southeast division.
There is an automated, free way for consumers to release their transcripts that may still operate when there are issues with the 4506-C process, which has a $4 surcharge. However, the alternative to the 4506-C form is less straightforward and objective as it’s done outside of the mortgage process, requiring a separate logon and actions.
Some of the most recent IRS cuts have targeted technology jobs and could have an impact on systems, so it’s also worth noting that another option lenders have sometimes elected to use is to allow loans temporarily move forward when transcript access is interrupted and verified later.
There is a risk to waiting for verification or not getting it directly from the IRS, however, as government-related agencies hold mortgage lenders responsible for the accuracy of borrower income information. That risk could increase if loan performance issues become more prevalent.
Currently, tax transcripts primarily come into play for government-related loans made to contract workers, said Crescenzo.
“That’s the only receipt that you have for a self-employed client’s income to know it’s valid,” he said.
The home affordability crunch and rise of gig work like Uber driving has increased interest in these types of mortgages, he said.
Contract workers can alternatively seek financing from the private non-qualified mortgage market where bank statements could be used to verify self-employment income, but Crescenzo said that has disadvantages related to government-related loans.
“Non QM requires higher downpayments and interest rates than traditional financing,” he said.
In the next couple years, regional demand for loans based on self-employment income could rise given the federal job cuts planned broadly at public agencies, depending on the extent to which court challenges to them go through.
Those potential borrowers will find it difficult to get new mortgages until they can establish more of a track record with their new sources of income, in most cases two years from a tax filing perspective.