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U.S. job market slows but it’s not yet a ‘three-alarm fire’: economist

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A “Now Hiring” sign is seen at a FedEx location on Broadway on June 07, 2024 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

The U.S. job market is cooling at a worrisome rate but not to an extent that warrants panic — at least, not yet, according to economists.

Their concern lies with the momentum of key labor-market metrics like unemployment, job growth and hiring.

Such barometers, which were historically strong just a year or so ago, have gradually weakened as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to cool the economy and bring down inflation.

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A recession could result if the labor market keeps throttling back at its current pace, economists said.

“We’re still on this trajectory that’s not a three-alarm fire right now,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the job site Indeed.

But if the decline doesn’t level off soon, he said, a soft landing for the economy may not be in the offing: “We’re going to land but it’s going to land with a crash.”

Why there’s ‘slowing momentum’

Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, a figure that was lower than expected.

The good news: That figure is an increase from the 89,000 jobs added in July. The unemployment rate also fell slightly, to 4.2% from 4.3% in July.

However, several metrics point to “slowing momentum” throughout the labor market, said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under the Biden administration.

The current level of job growth and unemployment “would be fine for the U.S. economy sustained over many months,” he said. “Problem is, other data don’t give us confidence we are going to stay there.”

For example, average job growth was 116,000 over the past three months; the three-month average was 211,000 a year ago. The unemployment rate has also steadily risen, from 3.4% as recently as April 2023.

Employers are also hiring at their slowest pace since 2014, according to separate Labor Department data issued earlier this week.

Hiring hasn’t been broad based, either: Private-sector job growth outside of the healthcare and social-assistance fields has been “unusually slow,” at a roughly 39,000 average over the past three months versus 79,000 over the past year and 137,000 over 2015 to 2019, according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

Workers are also quitting their jobs at the lowest rate since 2018, while job openings are at their lowest since January 2021. Quits are a barometer of workers’ confidence in their ability to find a new job.

Fmr. Atlanta Fed President on August jobs report: Labor market slowing, but not falling off a cliff

Job-finding among unemployed workers is around 2017 levels and “continues to drift down,” Bunker said.

“There’s a very consistent picture that the strong labor-market momentum we saw in 2022 and 2023 has slowed considerably,” Tedeschi said.

Overall, data points “are not necessarily concerning or at recessionary levels yet,” he added. “[But] they are softer. They may be preludes to a recession.”

Why layoff data is a silver lining

However, there is some room for optimism, economists said.

Permanent layoffs — which have historically been “the soothsayer of recessions” — haven’t really budged, Tedeschi said.

Federal data for unemployment insurance claims and the rate of layoffs suggest employers are holding on to their workers, for example.

The recent gradual rise in unemployment is largely not attributable to layoffs, economists said. It has been for a “good” reason: a large increase in labor supply. In other words, many more Americans entered the job market and looked for work; they’re counted as unemployed until they find a job.

“Once we start seeing layoffs, the game is over and we are in a recession,” Tedeschi said. “And that has not happened at all.”

That said, the job hunt has become more challenging for job seekers than in the recent past, according to Bunker.

Relief from the Fed won’t come quickly

Federal Reserve officials are expected to start cutting interest rates at their upcoming meeting this month, which would take pressure off the economy.

Lower borrowing costs may spur consumers to buy homes and cars, and for businesses to make more investments and hire more workers accordingly, for example.

That relief likely wouldn’t be instantaneous but would probably take many months to wind through the economy, economists said.

Overall, though, the current picture is “still consistent with an economy experiencing a soft landing rather than plummeting into recession,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Friday.

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What Pell Grant changes in Trump budget, House tax bill mean for students

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Carol Yepes | Moment | Getty Images

For many students and their families, federal student aid is key for college access.

And yet, the Trump administration’s budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 calls for significant cuts to higher education funding, including reducing the maximum federal Pell Grant award to $5,710 a year from $7,395, as well as scaling back the federal work-study program. The proposed cuts would help pay for the landmark tax and spending bill Republicans in the U.S. Congress hope to enact.

Roughly 40% of undergraduate students rely on Pell Grants, a type of federal aid available to low-income families who demonstrate financial need on the Free Application for Federal Student AidWork study funds, which are earned through part-time jobs, often help cover additional education expenses. 

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President Donald Trump‘s “skinny” budget request said changes to the Pell Grant program were necessary due to a looming shortfall, but top-ranking Democrats and college advocates say cuts could have been made elsewhere and students will pay the price.

“The money we invest in post-high school education isn’t charity — it helps Americans get good jobs, start businesses, and contribute to our economy,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., told CNBC. “No kid’s education should be defunded to pay for giant tax giveaways for billionaires.”

Pell Grants are ‘the foundation for financial support’

Nearly 75% of all undergraduates receive some type of financial aid, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

“Historically the Pell Grant was viewed as the foundation for financial support for low-income students,” said Lesley Turner, an associate professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and a research fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research. “It’s the first dollar, regardless of other types of aid you have access to.”

Under Trump’s proposal, the maximum Pell Grant for the 2026-2027 academic year would be at its lowest level in more than a decade.

“The Pell reduction would impact the lowest-income families,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

More than 92% of Pell Grant recipients in 2019-2020 came from families with household incomes below $60,000, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

How Pell Grant cuts could affect college students

If the president’s cuts were enacted and then persisted for four years, the average student debt at graduation will be about $6,500 higher among those with a bachelor’s degree who received Pell Grants, according to Kantrowitz’s own calculations.

“If adopted, [the proposed cuts] would require millions of enrolled students to drop out or take on more debt to complete their degrees — likely denying countless prospective low- and moderate-income students the opportunity to go to college altogether,” Sameer Gadkaree, president and CEO of The Institute for College Access & Success, said in a statement.  

Already, those grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, the average was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board.

Cutting the Pell Grant is ‘extreme’

Although there have been other times when the Pell program operated with a deficit, slashing the award amount is an “extreme” measure, according to Kantrowitz.

“Every past shortfall has been followed by Congress providing additional funding,” he said. “Even the current House budget reconciliation bill proposes additional funding to eliminate the shortfall.”

However, the bill also reduces eligibility for the grants by raising the number of credits students need to take per semester to qualify for the aid. There’s a concern those more stringent requirements will harm students who need to work while they’re in school and those who are parents balancing classes and child care.

“These are students that could use it the most,” said the University of Chicago’s Turner.

“Single parents, for example, that have to work to cover the bills won’t be able to take on additional credits,” Mayotte said.

“If their Pell is also reduced, they may have to withdraw from school rather than complete their degree,” Mayotte said.

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What a ‘revenge tax’ in Trump’s spending bill means for investors

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WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES – MAY 30: United States President Donald Trump departs at the White House to U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania in Washington D.C May 30, 2025.

Celal Gunes | Anadolu | Getty Images

As the Senate weighs President Donald Trump‘s multi-trillion-dollar spending package, a lesser-known provision tucked into the House-approved bill has pushback from Wall Street.

The House measure, known as Section 899, would allow the U.S. to add a new tax of up to 20% on foreigners with U.S. investments, including multinational companies operating in the U.S.

Some analysts call the provision a “revenge tax” due to its wording. It would apply to foreign entities if their home country imposes “unfair foreign taxes” against U.S. companies, according to the bill.

“Wall Street investors are shocked by [Section] 899 and apparently did not see it coming,” James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners managing director, wrote in a June 5 analysis.

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If enacted as written, the provision could have “significant implications for the asset management industry,” including cross-border income earned by hedge funds, private equity funds and other entities, Ernst & Young wrote on June 2.

Passive investment income could be subject to a higher U.S. withholding tax, as high as 50% in some cases, the company noted. Some analysts worry that could impact future investment.

The Investment Company Institute, which represents the asset management industry serving individual investors, warned in a May 30 statement that the provision is “written in a manner that could limit foreign investment to the U.S.”

But with details pending as the Senate assesses the bill, many experts are still weighing the potential impact — including who could be affected.

Here’s what investors need to know about Section 899.

How the ‘revenge tax’ could work

The second part of the measure would expand the so-called base erosion and anti-abuse tax, or BEAT, which aims to prevent corporations from shifting profits abroad to avoid taxes.

“Basically, all businesses that are operating in the U.S. from a foreign headquarters will face that,” said Daniel Bunn, president and CEO of the Tax Foundation. “It’s pretty expansive.”

The retaliatory measures would apply to most wealthy countries from which the U.S. receives direct foreign investment, which could threaten or harm the U.S. economy, according to Bunn’s analysis.

Notably, the proposed taxes don’t apply to U.S. Treasuries or portfolio interest, according to the bill.

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If enacted as drafted, Section 899 could raise an estimated $116 billion over 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

That could help fund other priorities in Trump’s mega-bill, and if removed, lawmakers may need to find the revenue elsewhere, Bunn said.

However, House Ways and Means Republicans may ultimately want foreign countries to adjust their tax policies before the new tax is imposed.

“If these countries withdraw these taxes and decide to behave, we will have achieved our goal,” Smith said in a June 4 statement.

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Forgotten 401(k) fees cost workers thousands in retirement savings

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No access to a 401(k)?

With more Americans job hopping in the wake of the Great Resignation, the risk of “forgetting” a 401(k) plan with a previous employer has jumped, recent studies show. 

As of 2023, there were 29.2 million left-behind 401(k) accounts holding roughly $1.65 trillion in assets, up 20% from two years earlier, according to the latest data by Capitalize, a fintech firm.

Nearly half of employees leave money in their old plans during work transitions, according to a 2024 report from Vanguard.

However, that can come at a cost.

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For starters, 41% of workers are unaware that they are paying 401(k) fees at all, a 2021 survey by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found.

In most cases, 401(k) fees, which can include administrative service costs and fees for investment management, are relatively low, depending on the plan provider. 

But there could be additional fees on 401(k) accounts left behind from previous jobs that come with an extra bite.

Fees on forgotten 401(k)s

Jelena Danilovic | Getty Images

Former employees who don’t take their 401(k) with them could be charged an additional fee to maintain those accounts, according to Romi Savova, CEO of PensionBee, an online retirement provider. “If you leave it with the employer, the employer could force the record keeping costs on to you,” she said.

According to PensionBee’s analysis, a $4.55 monthly nonemployee maintenance fee on top of other costs can add up to nearly $18,000 in lost retirement funds over time. Not only does the monthly fee eat into the principal, but workers also lose the compound growth that would have accumulated on the balance, the study found.

Fees on those forgotten 401(k)s can be particularly devastating for long-term savers, said Gil Baumgarten, founder and CEO of Segment Wealth Management in Houston.

That doesn’t necessarily mean it pays to move your balance, he said.

“There are two sides to every story,” he said. “Lost 401(k)s can be problematic, but rolling into a IRA could come with other costs.”

What to do with your old 401(k)

When workers switch jobs, they may be able to move the funds to a new employer-sponsored plan or roll their old 401(k) funds into an individual retirement account, which many people do.

But IRAs typically have higher investment fees than 401(k)s and those rollovers can also cost workers thousands of dollars over decades, according to another study, by The Pew Charitable Trusts, a nonprofit research organization.

Collectively, workers who roll money into IRAs could pay $45.5 billion in extra fees over a hypothetical retirement period of 25 years, Pew estimated.

Another option is to cash out an old 401(k), which is generally considered the least desirable option because of the hefty tax penalty. Even so, Vanguard found 33% of workers do that.

How to find a forgotten 401(k) 

While leaving your retirement savings in your former employer’s plan is often the simplest option, the risk of losing track of an old plan has been growing.

Now, 25% of all 401(k) plan assets are left behind or forgotten, according to the most recent data from Capitalize, up from 20% two years prior.

However, thanks to “Secure 2.0,” a slew of measures affecting retirement savers, the Department of Labor created the retirement savings lost and found database to help workers find old retirement plans.

“Ultimately, it can’t really be lost,” Baumgarten said. “Every one of these companies has a responsibility to provide statements.” Often simply updating your contact information can help reconnect you with these records, he advised.   

You can also use your Social Security number to track down funds through the National Registry of Unclaimed Retirement Benefits, a private-sector database.

In 2022, a group of large 401(k) plan administrators launched the Portability Services Network.

That consortium works with defined contributor plan rollover specialist Retirement Clearinghouse on auto portability, or the automatic transfer of small-balance 401(k)s. Depending on the plan, employees with up to $7,000 could have their savings automatically transferred into a workplace retirement account with their new employer when they change jobs.

The goal is to consolidate and maintain those retirement savings accounts, rather than cashing them out or risk losing track of them, during employment transitions, according to Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership at Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans and a member of the Portability Services Network.

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