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U.S. job market slows but it’s not yet a ‘three-alarm fire’: economist

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A “Now Hiring” sign is seen at a FedEx location on Broadway on June 07, 2024 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

The U.S. job market is cooling at a worrisome rate but not to an extent that warrants panic — at least, not yet, according to economists.

Their concern lies with the momentum of key labor-market metrics like unemployment, job growth and hiring.

Such barometers, which were historically strong just a year or so ago, have gradually weakened as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to cool the economy and bring down inflation.

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A recession could result if the labor market keeps throttling back at its current pace, economists said.

“We’re still on this trajectory that’s not a three-alarm fire right now,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the job site Indeed.

But if the decline doesn’t level off soon, he said, a soft landing for the economy may not be in the offing: “We’re going to land but it’s going to land with a crash.”

Why there’s ‘slowing momentum’

Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, a figure that was lower than expected.

The good news: That figure is an increase from the 89,000 jobs added in July. The unemployment rate also fell slightly, to 4.2% from 4.3% in July.

However, several metrics point to “slowing momentum” throughout the labor market, said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under the Biden administration.

The current level of job growth and unemployment “would be fine for the U.S. economy sustained over many months,” he said. “Problem is, other data don’t give us confidence we are going to stay there.”

For example, average job growth was 116,000 over the past three months; the three-month average was 211,000 a year ago. The unemployment rate has also steadily risen, from 3.4% as recently as April 2023.

Employers are also hiring at their slowest pace since 2014, according to separate Labor Department data issued earlier this week.

Hiring hasn’t been broad based, either: Private-sector job growth outside of the healthcare and social-assistance fields has been “unusually slow,” at a roughly 39,000 average over the past three months versus 79,000 over the past year and 137,000 over 2015 to 2019, according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

Workers are also quitting their jobs at the lowest rate since 2018, while job openings are at their lowest since January 2021. Quits are a barometer of workers’ confidence in their ability to find a new job.

Fmr. Atlanta Fed President on August jobs report: Labor market slowing, but not falling off a cliff

Job-finding among unemployed workers is around 2017 levels and “continues to drift down,” Bunker said.

“There’s a very consistent picture that the strong labor-market momentum we saw in 2022 and 2023 has slowed considerably,” Tedeschi said.

Overall, data points “are not necessarily concerning or at recessionary levels yet,” he added. “[But] they are softer. They may be preludes to a recession.”

Why layoff data is a silver lining

However, there is some room for optimism, economists said.

Permanent layoffs — which have historically been “the soothsayer of recessions” — haven’t really budged, Tedeschi said.

Federal data for unemployment insurance claims and the rate of layoffs suggest employers are holding on to their workers, for example.

The recent gradual rise in unemployment is largely not attributable to layoffs, economists said. It has been for a “good” reason: a large increase in labor supply. In other words, many more Americans entered the job market and looked for work; they’re counted as unemployed until they find a job.

“Once we start seeing layoffs, the game is over and we are in a recession,” Tedeschi said. “And that has not happened at all.”

That said, the job hunt has become more challenging for job seekers than in the recent past, according to Bunker.

Relief from the Fed won’t come quickly

Federal Reserve officials are expected to start cutting interest rates at their upcoming meeting this month, which would take pressure off the economy.

Lower borrowing costs may spur consumers to buy homes and cars, and for businesses to make more investments and hire more workers accordingly, for example.

That relief likely wouldn’t be instantaneous but would probably take many months to wind through the economy, economists said.

Overall, though, the current picture is “still consistent with an economy experiencing a soft landing rather than plummeting into recession,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Friday.

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Lenders pull incorrect amounts from student loan borrowers’ accounts

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Boogich | E+ | Getty Images

Lenders often encourage federal student loan borrowers to enroll in automatic payments. It can seem like a good idea to do so: Borrowers don’t need to worry about missing a payment and often get a slightly lower interest rate in exchange.

However, the decision can backfire in a lending space plagued by consumer abuses, according to a new report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

“Unfortunately, autopay errors were one of the most widespread, basic and consequential servicer errors we saw this year,” CFPB Student Loan Ombudsman Julia Barnard told CNBC. “These errors are incredibly costly and completely unacceptable.”

In some cases, borrowers had money pulled from their bank accounts despite never consenting to autopay, Barnard said. Other autopay users saw incorrect amounts taken or were charged multiple times in the same month.

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CNBC wrote last year about a woman who was supposed to have a $0 monthly student loan payment under the plan she was enrolled in, but was charged $2,074 one month. After that unexpected debit, she worried she wouldn’t be able to pay her mortgage.

In March, one borrower told the CFPB that their student loan servicer took $6,897 from their account when they only owed $1,048.

“Borrowers have told the CFPB that these errors have made it hard or impossible for them to cover basic needs like food, medical care and rent,” Barnard said.

What borrowers can do about autopay errors

Despite the issues some student loan borrowers experience, higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz recommends that people remain enrolled in the automatic payments.

After all, it’s one of the only ways to get an interest rate discount, he said. The savings is typically 0.25%.

In addition, he said, “they are less likely to be late with a payment.”

But some borrowers on a tight budget may prefer to forgo those benefits to make sure they’re not overcharged, experts said.

There are steps you can take to protect yourself from incorrect billing, Kantrowitz said.

You can set up an alert with your bank and get notified whenever a debit occurs over a certain amount. If you set that amount a little under what your student loan bill should be, you can use that alert to check that the debit was correct each month and also have a record of your payment history, which can be especially helpful to those working toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said.

If your loan service takes the wrong amount from your bank account, you should immediately contact the servicer and demand a refund, Kantrowitz said. You should also ask your servicer to cover any late fees from bounced checks or an overdraft, he said.

Unfortunately, Barnard says, the CFPB has heard from borrowers who weren’t able to get a timely refund.

“We’ve seen instances where borrowers have waited months or even years to receive a refund related to autopay errors,” she said.

As a result, she also suggests borrowers reach out to their bank about the incorrect payment.

“The borrowers’ financial institution may be able to quickly resolve errors in autopay amounts,” she said, so long as the borrower notifies them within 10 business days of the amount being debited.

If you run into a wall with your servicer, you can file a complaint with the Education Department’s feedback system at Studentaid.gov/feedback. Problems can also be reported to the Federal Student Aid’s Ombudsman, Kantrowitz said.

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Why Trump’s tax plans could be ‘complicated’ in 2025, policy experts say

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024.

Allison Robbert | Via Reuters

Congressional lawmakers will soon debate expiring tax breaks and new promises from President-elect Donald Trump.

Agreeing on cuts and spending, however, could be a challenge.

With a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, Republican lawmakers can pass sweeping tax legislation through “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster. Republicans could begin the budget reconciliation process during Trump’s first 100 days in office.

But choosing priorities could be difficult, particularly amid the federal budget deficit, policy experts said Tuesday at a Brookings Institution event in Washington.

Legislators will be “representing their districts, not their party,” Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said Tuesday in a panel discussion at the Brookings event.

“This is a lot more complicated than just the reds against the blues,” he said.

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‘Political divisions’ could be a barrier

With a slim majority in Congress, Republican lawmakers will soon negotiate with several blocks within their party. Some of these groups have competing priorities.

Enacted by Trump in 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, is a key priority for the next administration.

Without action from Congress, trillions of tax breaks from the TCJA will expire after 2025. These include lower tax brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit, bigger estate and gift tax exemption, and a 20% tax break for pass-through businesses, among other provisions.

The more things you try to bring in, the more potential political divisions we have to navigate.

Molly Reynolds

senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings Institution

Tax bill could take longer than expected

Since budget reconciliation involves multiple steps, policy experts say the Republican tax bill could take months.

Plus, Congress has until Dec. 20 to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. A stopgap bill could push the deadline to January or March, which could take time from Trump’s tax priorities.

“The idea that they’re going to do this in 100 days, I think, is foolish,” Gleckman said. “My over-under is Dec. 31, 2025, and that might be optimistic.”

However, the bill could get through by Oct. 1, 2025, which closes the federal government’s fiscal year, other policy experts say.

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Why it helps to file early

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We are overly reliant on student loans to fund higher education, says NACAC CEO Angel Perez

This week, the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid expanded its “phased rollout” so all students can now apply for aid for the upcoming academic year.

Up until Monday, the 2025-26 FAFSA was only available to limited groups of students in a series of beta tests that began on Oct. 1.

Now, the form is open to all and the Department of Education has said it will be out of testing entirely by Nov. 22 — which puts the official launch ahead of schedule.

Typically, all students have access to the coming academic year’s form in October, but last year’s new simplified form wasn’t available until late December after a monthslong delay.

This year, the plan was to be available to all students and contributors on or before Dec. 1.

Students who submit a form during this final “expanded beta” phase before Nov. 22 will not need to submit a subsequent 2025–26 FAFSA form, the education department said.

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There are still some issues with the new form, some of which also plagued last year’s college aid application cycle, but they all have workarounds, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Altogether, this year’s rollout is “much better than last year,” he said. 

Last year, complications with the new form resulted in some students not applying at all. Ultimately, that meant fewer students went on to college.

Why it’s important to file the FAFSA early

“Students should take full advantage of the early rollout and submit their FAFSA as soon as possible,” said Shaan Patel, the CEO and founder of Prep Expert, which provides Scholastic Aptitude Test and American College Test preparation courses.

The earlier families fill out the form, the better their chances are of receiving aid, since some financial aid is awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, or from programs with limited funds.

“The earlier you apply, the better your chances of securing more aid that doesn’t need to be repaid,” Patel said.

“Submitting early also means you’ll receive your financial aid award letters sooner,” he said. “This gives you ample time to compare offers from different schools and make an informed decision without feeling rushed. Finally, knowing your child’s financial aid status earlier reduces stress and allows your family to focus on other important aspects of college preparation.”

For many students, financial aid is key.

Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.

The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including federal student loans, work-study and especially grants — which have become the most crucial kind of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.

Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school, according to an NCAN study of 2013 data. 

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