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UK economic growth May 2024

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City of London skyline on 10th June 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile.

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LONDON — The U.K. economy grew by 0.4% in May, flash figures published by the Office for National Statistics showed on Thursday, with the British pound jumping to a four-month high against the U.S. dollar after the announcement.

Gross domestic product came in above the 0.2% monthly expansion forecast by a Reuters poll of economists.

The British economy exited a shallow recession in the first quarter of the year, then flatlined in April.

The nation’s dominant services sector showed continued growth of 0.3% in May, as output in both production and construction rebounded from losses, rising by 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

Sterling was 0.14% higher against the U.S. dollar at $1.2863 by 8:30 a.m. in London — the highest level for the British currency since March 8, 2024, according to LSEG data.

The broad-based recovery will be welcomed by the newly-elected Labour Party, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer undertakes his first week on the job.

Goldman Sachs last week upgraded its growth forecast for the U.K. following left-of-center Labour’s thumping victory in the country’s general election. The party campaigned on a platform that centered on boosting economic growth, housing and planning.

The party’s large parliamentary majority and business-friendly messaging have led analysts to describe the government as generally supportive of U.K. assets.

In a note, Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, underlined the recent trend of British GDP increases in recent months — barring the lack of growth in April — “which supports the idea that the dual drags on activity from higher interest rates and higher inflation are starting to fade.”

Price rises in the U.K. have cooled from a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, all the way down to the Bank of England’s 2% target in May this year. The performance has raised expectations for a coming interest rate cut from the Bank of England.

However, the BOE continued to strike a cautious tone at its June meeting even after its peers at the European Central Bank began their own path of interest rate cuts, warning that key indicators of inflation persistence in the U.K. “remained elevated.” Markets remain roughly evenly split on the prospect of a cut at its August meeting.

Labour agenda

It will now be up to the new government to build momentum behind the latest economic growth figures, Muniya Barua, deputy chief executive at industry campaign group BusinessLDN, said in emailed comments.

“With the public finances stretched, ministers should follow its flurry of recent pro-growth announcements by prioritising high-impact, low-cost measures which taken together could help unlock much-needed private investment,” Barua said, citing an overhaul of the apprenticeship system and scrapping stamp duty on share transactions.

New Finance Minister Rachel Reeves last week said Labour would introduce mandatory house-building targets, lift the ban on new onshore wind farms in England and reform planning rules. On Wednesday she announced the launch of a £7.3 billion ($9.4 billion) national wealth fund targeted at attracting private sector investment in U.K. infrastructure projects.

The business community now awaits Labour’s first fiscal statement, which is expected no earlier than mid-September, Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said in a note.

This “should make both taxation and spending plans clearer. This will allow businesses to better plan ahead and could in turn reinvigorate their want to invest,” James said.

“However, this would take time to feed through, and until there is a better understanding of what is to come, we are unlikely to see any meaningful acceleration in GDP growth,” she added.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The election of Pope Leo XIV goes beyond American politics

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The election of Pope Leo XIV goes beyond American politics

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Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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