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UK economic growth May 2024

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City of London skyline on 10th June 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile.

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

LONDON — The U.K. economy grew by 0.4% in May, flash figures published by the Office for National Statistics showed on Thursday, with the British pound jumping to a four-month high against the U.S. dollar after the announcement.

Gross domestic product came in above the 0.2% monthly expansion forecast by a Reuters poll of economists.

The British economy exited a shallow recession in the first quarter of the year, then flatlined in April.

The nation’s dominant services sector showed continued growth of 0.3% in May, as output in both production and construction rebounded from losses, rising by 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

Sterling was 0.14% higher against the U.S. dollar at $1.2863 by 8:30 a.m. in London — the highest level for the British currency since March 8, 2024, according to LSEG data.

The broad-based recovery will be welcomed by the newly-elected Labour Party, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer undertakes his first week on the job.

Goldman Sachs last week upgraded its growth forecast for the U.K. following left-of-center Labour’s thumping victory in the country’s general election. The party campaigned on a platform that centered on boosting economic growth, housing and planning.

The party’s large parliamentary majority and business-friendly messaging have led analysts to describe the government as generally supportive of U.K. assets.

In a note, Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, underlined the recent trend of British GDP increases in recent months — barring the lack of growth in April — “which supports the idea that the dual drags on activity from higher interest rates and higher inflation are starting to fade.”

Price rises in the U.K. have cooled from a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, all the way down to the Bank of England’s 2% target in May this year. The performance has raised expectations for a coming interest rate cut from the Bank of England.

However, the BOE continued to strike a cautious tone at its June meeting even after its peers at the European Central Bank began their own path of interest rate cuts, warning that key indicators of inflation persistence in the U.K. “remained elevated.” Markets remain roughly evenly split on the prospect of a cut at its August meeting.

Labour agenda

It will now be up to the new government to build momentum behind the latest economic growth figures, Muniya Barua, deputy chief executive at industry campaign group BusinessLDN, said in emailed comments.

“With the public finances stretched, ministers should follow its flurry of recent pro-growth announcements by prioritising high-impact, low-cost measures which taken together could help unlock much-needed private investment,” Barua said, citing an overhaul of the apprenticeship system and scrapping stamp duty on share transactions.

New Finance Minister Rachel Reeves last week said Labour would introduce mandatory house-building targets, lift the ban on new onshore wind farms in England and reform planning rules. On Wednesday she announced the launch of a £7.3 billion ($9.4 billion) national wealth fund targeted at attracting private sector investment in U.K. infrastructure projects.

The business community now awaits Labour’s first fiscal statement, which is expected no earlier than mid-September, Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said in a note.

This “should make both taxation and spending plans clearer. This will allow businesses to better plan ahead and could in turn reinvigorate their want to invest,” James said.

“However, this would take time to feed through, and until there is a better understanding of what is to come, we are unlikely to see any meaningful acceleration in GDP growth,” she added.

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Donald Trump sacks America’s top military brass

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THE FIRST shot against America’s senior military leaders was fired within hours of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th: General Mark Milley’s portrait was removed from the wall on the E-ring, where it had hung with paintings of other former chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff. A day later the commandant of the coast guard, Admiral Linda Fagan, was thrown overboard. On February 21st it was the most senior serving officer, General Charles “CQ” Brown, a former F-16 pilot, who was ejected from the Pentagon. At least he was spared a Trumpian farewell insult. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader,” Mr Trump declared.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

Germany is 'lacking ambition,' investor says

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