Connect with us

Economics

UK economic growth May 2024

Published

on

City of London skyline on 10th June 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile.

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

LONDON — The U.K. economy grew by 0.4% in May, flash figures published by the Office for National Statistics showed on Thursday, with the British pound jumping to a four-month high against the U.S. dollar after the announcement.

Gross domestic product came in above the 0.2% monthly expansion forecast by a Reuters poll of economists.

The British economy exited a shallow recession in the first quarter of the year, then flatlined in April.

The nation’s dominant services sector showed continued growth of 0.3% in May, as output in both production and construction rebounded from losses, rising by 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

Sterling was 0.14% higher against the U.S. dollar at $1.2863 by 8:30 a.m. in London — the highest level for the British currency since March 8, 2024, according to LSEG data.

The broad-based recovery will be welcomed by the newly-elected Labour Party, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer undertakes his first week on the job.

Goldman Sachs last week upgraded its growth forecast for the U.K. following left-of-center Labour’s thumping victory in the country’s general election. The party campaigned on a platform that centered on boosting economic growth, housing and planning.

The party’s large parliamentary majority and business-friendly messaging have led analysts to describe the government as generally supportive of U.K. assets.

In a note, Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, underlined the recent trend of British GDP increases in recent months — barring the lack of growth in April — “which supports the idea that the dual drags on activity from higher interest rates and higher inflation are starting to fade.”

Price rises in the U.K. have cooled from a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, all the way down to the Bank of England’s 2% target in May this year. The performance has raised expectations for a coming interest rate cut from the Bank of England.

However, the BOE continued to strike a cautious tone at its June meeting even after its peers at the European Central Bank began their own path of interest rate cuts, warning that key indicators of inflation persistence in the U.K. “remained elevated.” Markets remain roughly evenly split on the prospect of a cut at its August meeting.

Labour agenda

It will now be up to the new government to build momentum behind the latest economic growth figures, Muniya Barua, deputy chief executive at industry campaign group BusinessLDN, said in emailed comments.

“With the public finances stretched, ministers should follow its flurry of recent pro-growth announcements by prioritising high-impact, low-cost measures which taken together could help unlock much-needed private investment,” Barua said, citing an overhaul of the apprenticeship system and scrapping stamp duty on share transactions.

New Finance Minister Rachel Reeves last week said Labour would introduce mandatory house-building targets, lift the ban on new onshore wind farms in England and reform planning rules. On Wednesday she announced the launch of a £7.3 billion ($9.4 billion) national wealth fund targeted at attracting private sector investment in U.K. infrastructure projects.

The business community now awaits Labour’s first fiscal statement, which is expected no earlier than mid-September, Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said in a note.

This “should make both taxation and spending plans clearer. This will allow businesses to better plan ahead and could in turn reinvigorate their want to invest,” James said.

“However, this would take time to feed through, and until there is a better understanding of what is to come, we are unlikely to see any meaningful acceleration in GDP growth,” she added.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

Published

on

Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

Continue Reading

Trending