Warren Buffett walks the floor and meets with Berkshire Hathaway shareholders ahead of their annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3rd, 2024.
David A. Grogen | CNBC
The mystery over Warren Buffett’s surprisingly defensive stance deepened over the weekend.
The 94-year-old CEO of Berkshire Hathaway sold more stocks in the latest quarter and grew a record cash pile even larger to $334 billion, but failed to explain in his highly anticipated annual letter why the investor known for his astute equity purchases over time was seemingly battening down the hatches.
Instead Buffett said that this posture in no way represented a move away from his love for stocks.
“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote in the 2024 annual letter released Saturday. “That preference won’t change.”
Berkshire’s monstrous ownership of cash has raised questions among shareholders and observers especially as interest rates are expected to fall from their multi-year highs. The Berkshire CEO and chairman in recent years has expressed frustration about an expensive market and few buying opportunities. Some investors and analysts have grown impatient with the lack of action and have sought an explanation why.
Despite his repeated selling of stock, Buffett said Berkshire will continue to prefer equities to cash.
“Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities – mostly American equities although many of these will have international operations of significance,” Buffett wrote. “Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned.”
Shareholders will have to wait a little longer it seems as the Omaha-based conglomerate net sold equities for a ninth consecutive quarter in the final period of last year, according to the company’s annual report, which was also released on Saturday.
All told, Berkshire sold more than $134 billion worth of stocks in 2024. This is mainly due to the sales of Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.
Meanwhile, it appears Buffett is not finding his own stock attractive either. Berkshire continued its buyback halt, repurchasing no shares in the fourth quarter or in the first quarter through Feb. 10.
This is despite a massive increase in operating earnings reported by the conglomerate on Saturday.
‘Often, nothing looks compelling’
Buffett’s sitting on his hands amid a raging bull market that’s seen the S&P 500 gain more than 20% for two years in a row and move into the green again so far this year. Although, some cracks have begun to develop in the past week with some concerns about a slowing economy, volatility from rapid policy changes from new President Donald Trump and overall stock valuations.
Berkshire shares were up 25% and 16% respectively the last two years and are up 5% so far this year.
Buffett did offer perhaps a small hint about stock valuations being a concern in the letter.
“We are impartial in our choice of equity vehicles, investing in either variety based upon where we can best deploy your (and my family’s) savings,” wrote Buffett. “Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities.”
In this year’s letter, Buffett did endorse designated successor Greg Abel in his ability to pick equity opportunities, even comparing him to the late Charlie Munger.
“Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities. Greg has vividly shown his ability to act at such times as did Charlie,” Buffett said.
Some investors and analysts have speculated Buffett’s conservative moves in the last year are not a market call, but him preparing the company for Abel by paring outsized positions and building up cash for him to deploy one day.
Buffett did signal he would be deploying capital in one area: the five Japanese trading houses he began buying nearly six years go.
“Over time, you will likely see Berkshire’s ownership of all five increase somewhat,” he wrote.
Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.
“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.
But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.
“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”
Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.
“The big guys, Walmart,Costco,Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”
Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.
Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.
“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”
It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.
But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.
“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.
Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.
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Investors may want to reducetheir exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.
Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.
“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”
She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.
The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.
Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.
“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”
She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.
“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.
ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.
“If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu, Marubeni and Sumitomo — all to 7.4%.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Warren Buffett released Saturday his annual letter to shareholders.
In it, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway discussed how he still preferred stocks over cash, despite the conglomerate’s massive cash hoard. He also lauded successor Greg Able for his ability to pick opportunities — and compared him to the late Charlie Munger.