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One interest rate cut in 2024 'looks quite reasonable,' strategist says

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it will leave interest rates unchanged as inflation continues to prove stickier than expected.

However, the move also dashes hopes that the Fed will be able to start cutting rates soon and relieve consumers from sky-high borrowing costs.

The market is now pricing in one rate cut later in the year, according to the CME’s FedWatch measure of futures market pricing. It started 2024 expecting at least six reductions, which was “completely fantasy land,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

That change in rate cut expectations leaves many households in a bind, he said. “Certainly from a budgetary standpoint, not only is inflation still high but that is on top of the cumulative increase in prices over the last three years.”

“Prioritizing debt repayment, especially of high-cost credit card debt, remains paramount as interest rates promise to remain high for some time,” McBride said.

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Inflation has been a persistent problem since the Covid-19 pandemic, when price increases soared to their highest levels since the early 1980s. The Fed responded with a series of interest rate hikes that took its benchmark rate to its highest level in more than 22 years.

The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.

The spike in interest rates caused most consumer borrowing costs to skyrocket, putting many households under pressure.

Increasing inflation has also been bad news for wage growth, as real average hourly earnings rose just 0.6% over the past year, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Even with possible rate cuts on the horizon, consumers won’t see their borrowing costs come down significantly, according to Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House.

“Once the Fed does cut rates, that could cascade through reductions in other rates but there is nothing that necessarily guarantees that,” he said.

From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, here’s a look at where those rates could go in the second half of 2024.

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. In the wake of the rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to nearly 21% today — an all-time high.

Annual percentage rates will start to come down when the Fed cuts rates, but even then they will only ease off extremely high levels. With only a few potential quarter-point cuts on deck, APRs aren’t likely to fall much, according to Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“If Americans want lower interest rates, they’re going to have to do it themselves,” he said. Try calling your card issuer to ask for a lower rate, consolidating and paying off high-interest credit cards with a lower-interest personal loan or switching to an interest-free balance transfer credit card, Schulz advised.

Mortgage rates

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power, partly because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is just above 7.3%, up from 4.4% when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022 and 3.27% at the end of 2021, according to Bankrate.

“Going forward, mortgage rates will likely continue to fluctuate and it’s impossible to say for certain where they’ll end up,” noted Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree. “That said, there’s a good chance that we’re going to need to get used to rates above 7% again, at least until we start getting better economic news.”

Auto loans

Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because car prices have been rising along with the interest rates on new loans, resulting in less affordable monthly payments. 

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now more than 7%, up from 4% when the Fed started raising rates, according to Edmunds. However, competition between lenders and more incentives in the market have started to take some of the edge off the cost of buying a car lately, said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights.

“Any reduction in rates will be especially welcome as there is an increasingly higher share of consumers with older trade-ins that have sat out the market madness waiting for an automotive landscape that looks more like the last time they bought a vehicle six or seven years ago,” Drury said.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected. But undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2023-24 academic year are now paying 5.50%, up from 4.99% in 2022-23 — and any loans disbursed after July 1 will likely be even higher. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based on an auction of 10-Year Treasury notes later this month.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means those borrowers are already paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

For those struggling with existing debt, there are ways federal borrowers can reduce their burden, including income-based plans with $0 monthly payments and economic hardship and unemployment deferments

Private loan borrowers have fewer options for relief — although some could consider refinancing once rates start to come down, and those with better credit may already qualify for a lower rate.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

As a result, top-yielding online savings account rates have made significant moves and are now paying more than 5.5% — above the rate of inflation, which is a rare win for anyone building up a cash cushion, McBride said.

“The mantra of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates is music to the ears of savers who will continue to enjoy inflation-beating returns on safe-haven savings accounts, money markets and CDs for the foreseeable future,” he said.

Currently, top-yielding certificates of deposit pay over 5.5%, as good as or better than a high-yield savings account.

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Personal Finance

Here are key changes for investors nearing retirement in 2025

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Leverage the 401(k) ‘super catch-up’

For 2025, investors can save more with higher 401(k) plan limits. Employees can defer $23,500 into 401(k) plans, up from $23,000 in 2024. The catch-up contribution limit is $7,500 for workers ages 50 and older.

But thanks to Secure 2.0, there’s a “super catch-up” for investors ages 60 to 63, said certified financial planner Michael Espinosa, president of TrueNorth Retirement Services in Salt Lake City. 

The catch-up contribution for employees ages 60 to 63 jumps to $11,250 for 2025. That brings the total deferral limit to $34,750 for these workers.

“This could be huge” for deferring taxes in 2025, Espinosa said.

Some 15% of eligible participants made catch-up contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly 5 million participants.

Avoid a penalty for inherited IRAs

An inherited individual retirement account could boost your nest egg. However, some heirs may face an IRS penalty for missed required withdrawals in 2025, experts say. 

With more focus on shifting economic policy, “it’s easy to see how this one could get buried,” said CFP Edward Jastrem, chief planning officer at Heritage Financial Services in Westwood, Massachusetts.

Since 2020, certain inherited accounts must follow the “10-year rule,” meaning heirs must empty inherited IRAs by the 10th year after the original owner’s death. This applies to heirs who are not a spouse, minor child, disabled, or chronically ill, and certain trusts.

Starting in 2025, the IRS will enforce the penalty on heirs for missed required minimum distributions, or RMDs. The penalty is 25% of the amount that should have been withdrawn. But it’s possible to reduce that penalty if your RMD is “timely corrected” within two years, according to the IRS.

Heirs must take yearly withdrawals if the original IRA owner had reached their RMD age before death.

Tax Tip: 401(K) limits for 2025

Social Security benefit change is ‘significant’

If you or your spouse work in public service and expect to receive a pension, new legislation could mean higher Social Security benefits in retirement.

Enacted by former President Joe Biden in January, the Social Security Fairness Act ended two provisions — the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset — that lowered benefits for certain government employees and their spouses.

“This change is significant for many retirees who had their benefits eliminated or reduced,” said CFP Scott Bishop, partner and managing director of Presidio Wealth Partners, based in Houston.

The Social Security Administration is working on the timeline for the new legislation and will update its website when more details are available.

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Personal Finance

What to know collections restarting

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Jose Luis Pelaez | Getty Images

For roughly the past five years, federal student loan borrowers who fell behind on their bills didn’t need to worry about the usual consequences, including the garnishment of their wages and retirement benefits.

That will soon change.

In a U.S. Department of Education memo obtained by CNBC, dated Jan. 13, a top Biden administration official laid out for the first time details of when collection activity may resume. In some cases, borrowers could feel the pain as early as this summer.

By late 2024, the number of federal student loan borrowers in default was roughly 5.5 million, the department’s memo said.

Here’s what borrowers struggling to pay their bills need to know about the risks ahead.

Different garnishments to resume at different times

Federal student loan borrowers who’ve defaulted on their loans may see their wages garnished starting in October of this year, according to the Education Department memo. Social Security benefit offsets could resume as early as August.

It may be up to the new administration under President Donald Trump to decide how to handle the resumption of collections, experts said. However, the department under President Joe Biden took some steps to help defaulted borrowers.

Later this year, for the first time, borrowers in default should be able to enroll in the Income-Based Repayment plan “and have a pathway to forgiveness,” the memo says.

Currently, federal student loan borrowers need to exit default before they can access any of the income-driven repayment plans, including the IBR. These plans aim to set borrowers’ monthly bills at a number they can afford, and many end up with a $0 monthly payment.

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Meanwhile, the Biden administration also moved to protect a higher amount of people’s Social Security benefits from the department’s collection powers. When the consequences of defaults resume, those with a monthly Social Security benefit under $1,883 should be able to protect those benefits from offset, compared with the current protected amount of $750 in place today.

“Available data suggest that these actions will effectively halt Social Security offsets for more than half of affected borrowers and reduce the offset amount for many others,” the memo said.

The White House and the U.S. Department of Education did not respond to a request for comment on how the Trump administration plans to handle those measures.

What borrowers can do

Borrowers who are already in default should contact their loan servicer “right away” to talk about resolving the issue, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

Someone can get out of default on their student loans through rehabilitating or consolidating their debt, Mayotte said.

Rehabilitating involves making “nine voluntary, reasonable and affordable monthly payments,” according to the U.S. Department of Education. Those nine payments can be made over “a period of 10 consecutive months,” it said.

Consolidation, meanwhile, may be available to those who “make three consecutive, voluntary, on-time, full monthly payments.” At that point, they can essentially repackage their debt into a new loan.

If you don’t know who your loan servicer is, you can find out at Studentaid.gov.

Those who aren’t already in default should contact their loan servicer to avoid that outcome, Mayotte said. You may be able to lower your monthly payments on an income-driven repayment plan or pause your payments through a deferment or forbearance.

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The Fed may hold interest rates steady. Here’s what that means to you

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4 rate cuts this year is our base case, says Wilmington Trust's Tony Roth

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting next week, despite President Donald Trump’s comments Thursday that he’ll “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

So far, the central bank has moved slowly to recalibrate policy after hiking its key benchmark 5.25 percentage points between 2022 and 2023 in an effort to fight inflation, which is still running above the Fed’s 2% mandate. On the campaign trail, Trump said inflation and high interest rates are “destroying our country.”

But for consumers struggling under the weight of high prices and high borrowing costs, there is little relief in sight, for now.

“Anyone hoping for the Fed to ride in as the cavalry and rescue you from high interest rates anytime soon is going to be really disappointed,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst. 

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The Federal funds rate, which the U.S. central bank sets, is the rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates consumers see every day.

Once the Fed funds rate eventually comes down, consumers may see their borrowing costs decrease across various loans such as mortgages, car loans and credit cards, making it cheaper to borrow money. 

Here’s a breakdown of how it works:

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. But even though the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point last year, credit card costs remained elevated.

Card issuers are often slower to respond to Fed rate decreases than to increases, said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst.

Currently, the average credit card rate is more than 20%, according to Bankrate — near an all-time high.

In the meantime, delinquencies are higher and the share of credit card holders making only minimum payments on their bills recently jumped to a 12-year high, according to a Philadelphia Federal Reserve report.

“That means it is maybe more important than ever to get that high-interest debt under control,” Schulz said.

Mortgage rates

Mortgage rates have risen in recent months, even as the Fed cut rates.

Because 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and mostly tied to Treasury yields and the economy, they are not falling in step with Fed policy. Since most people have fixed-rate mortgages, their rate won’t change unless they refinance or sell their current home and buy another property. 

“Most mortgage debt is fixed, so existing homeowners are not impacted,” Bankrate’s McBride said. “It just adds to the affordability woes for would-be homebuyers and is keeping home sales on ice.”

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 7.06%, according to Bankrate.

Auto loans

Auto loan rates are fixed. But these debts are one of the fastest-growing sources of consumer credit outside of mortgage lending. Payments have been getting bigger because car prices are rising, driving outstanding auto loan balances to more than $1.64 trillion.

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now around 7.47%, according to Bankrate.

“With the Fed signaling that any rate cuts in 2025 will be gradual, affordability challenges are likely to persist for most new vehicle buyers,” said Joseph Yoon, Edmunds’ consumer insights analyst.

“Although further rate cuts in 2025 could provide some relief, the continued upward trend in new vehicle pricing makes it difficult to anticipate significant improvements in affordability for consumers in the new year,” Yoon said. 

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected by any Fed moves.

However, undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means those borrowers are typically paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

As a result of the Fed’s string of rate hikes in recent years, top-yielding online savings accounts have offered the best returns in more than a decade and still pay nearly 5%, according to McBride.

“The good thing about the Fed being on the sidelines is that savers are going to be able to enjoy these inflation-beating yields for some time to come,” McBride said.

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