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One interest rate cut in 2024 'looks quite reasonable,' strategist says

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it will leave interest rates unchanged as inflation continues to prove stickier than expected.

However, the move also dashes hopes that the Fed will be able to start cutting rates soon and relieve consumers from sky-high borrowing costs.

The market is now pricing in one rate cut later in the year, according to the CME’s FedWatch measure of futures market pricing. It started 2024 expecting at least six reductions, which was “completely fantasy land,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

That change in rate cut expectations leaves many households in a bind, he said. “Certainly from a budgetary standpoint, not only is inflation still high but that is on top of the cumulative increase in prices over the last three years.”

“Prioritizing debt repayment, especially of high-cost credit card debt, remains paramount as interest rates promise to remain high for some time,” McBride said.

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Inflation has been a persistent problem since the Covid-19 pandemic, when price increases soared to their highest levels since the early 1980s. The Fed responded with a series of interest rate hikes that took its benchmark rate to its highest level in more than 22 years.

The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.

The spike in interest rates caused most consumer borrowing costs to skyrocket, putting many households under pressure.

Increasing inflation has also been bad news for wage growth, as real average hourly earnings rose just 0.6% over the past year, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Even with possible rate cuts on the horizon, consumers won’t see their borrowing costs come down significantly, according to Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House.

“Once the Fed does cut rates, that could cascade through reductions in other rates but there is nothing that necessarily guarantees that,” he said.

From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, here’s a look at where those rates could go in the second half of 2024.

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. In the wake of the rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to nearly 21% today — an all-time high.

Annual percentage rates will start to come down when the Fed cuts rates, but even then they will only ease off extremely high levels. With only a few potential quarter-point cuts on deck, APRs aren’t likely to fall much, according to Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“If Americans want lower interest rates, they’re going to have to do it themselves,” he said. Try calling your card issuer to ask for a lower rate, consolidating and paying off high-interest credit cards with a lower-interest personal loan or switching to an interest-free balance transfer credit card, Schulz advised.

Mortgage rates

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power, partly because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is just above 7.3%, up from 4.4% when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022 and 3.27% at the end of 2021, according to Bankrate.

“Going forward, mortgage rates will likely continue to fluctuate and it’s impossible to say for certain where they’ll end up,” noted Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree. “That said, there’s a good chance that we’re going to need to get used to rates above 7% again, at least until we start getting better economic news.”

Auto loans

Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because car prices have been rising along with the interest rates on new loans, resulting in less affordable monthly payments. 

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now more than 7%, up from 4% when the Fed started raising rates, according to Edmunds. However, competition between lenders and more incentives in the market have started to take some of the edge off the cost of buying a car lately, said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights.

“Any reduction in rates will be especially welcome as there is an increasingly higher share of consumers with older trade-ins that have sat out the market madness waiting for an automotive landscape that looks more like the last time they bought a vehicle six or seven years ago,” Drury said.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected. But undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2023-24 academic year are now paying 5.50%, up from 4.99% in 2022-23 — and any loans disbursed after July 1 will likely be even higher. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based on an auction of 10-Year Treasury notes later this month.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means those borrowers are already paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

For those struggling with existing debt, there are ways federal borrowers can reduce their burden, including income-based plans with $0 monthly payments and economic hardship and unemployment deferments

Private loan borrowers have fewer options for relief — although some could consider refinancing once rates start to come down, and those with better credit may already qualify for a lower rate.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

As a result, top-yielding online savings account rates have made significant moves and are now paying more than 5.5% — above the rate of inflation, which is a rare win for anyone building up a cash cushion, McBride said.

“The mantra of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates is music to the ears of savers who will continue to enjoy inflation-beating returns on safe-haven savings accounts, money markets and CDs for the foreseeable future,” he said.

Currently, top-yielding certificates of deposit pay over 5.5%, as good as or better than a high-yield savings account.

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How to avoid delinquency, default, garnishment

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U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters aboard Air Force One, en route to Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on May 15, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

As the Trump administration ramps up its student loan collection efforts, worried borrowers need to ask themselves a key question: Am I delinquent, or in default? The answer determines your best next steps.

“We’ve had a lot of clients contacting us recently who are extremely stressed and, in some cases panicked, about their loan situation,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.

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However, some borrowers wrongly believe they’ll be subject to wage garnishments or offsets of their retirement benefits — when in fact they are delinquent but not yet in default, Nierman said.

If you’re delinquent, there are things you can do to avoid default. And even those who are in default and at risk for collections can take steps to avoid such outcomes.

“The federal student loan system does provide several paths for bringing loans out of default,” she said.

Delinquent or in default? Here’s how to tell

Once you are delinquent for 90 days or more, your student loan servicer will report your past due status to the national credit bureaus, which can lead to a drop in your credit score.

The Federal Reserve predicted in March that some people with a student loan delinquency could see their scores fall by as much as 171 points. (Credit scores typically range from 300 to 850, with around 670 and higher considered good.)

Lower credit scores can lead to higher borrowing costs on consumer loans such as mortgages, car loans and credit cards.

But you’re not considered to be in default on your student loans until you haven’t made your scheduled payment in at least 270 days, the Education Department says.

Only borrowers in default face garnishments

The federal government has extraordinary collection powers on its student loans and it can seize borrowers’ tax refundspaychecks and Social Security retirement and disability benefits.

But only those who’ve defaulted on their student loans can face these consequences, experts said.

How to get out of student loan delinquency

How to get out of student loan default

Student loan default collection restarting

You can get out of default on your student loans through rehabilitating or consolidating your debt, Nierman said.

Rehabilitating involves making “nine voluntary, reasonable and affordable monthly payments,” according to the U.S. Department of Education. Those nine payments can be made over “a period of 10 consecutive months,” it said.

Consolidation, meanwhile, may be available to those who “make three consecutive, voluntary, on-time, full monthly payments.” At that point, they can essentially repackage their debt into a new loan.

After you’ve emerged from default, experts also recommend requesting a monthly bill you can afford.

If you don’t know who your loan servicer is, you can find out at Studentaid.gov.

“Explore your options and create a plan for returning your loans back to good standing so you will not be subject to punitive collections activity,” Nierman said.

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Why long-term care costs can be a ‘huge problem’

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Kate_sept2004 | E+ | Getty Images

Long-term care can be costly, extending well beyond $100,000. Yet, financial advisors say many households aren’t prepared to manage the expense.

“People don’t plan for it in advance,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and certified financial planner based in Jacksonville, Florida. “It’s a huge problem.”

Over half, 57%, of Americans who turn 65 today will develop a disability serious enough to require long-term care, according to a 2022 report published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Urban Institute. Such disabilities might include cognitive or nervous system disorders like dementia, Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s disease, or complications from a stroke, for example.

The average future cost of long-term care for someone turning 65 today is about $122,400, the HHS-Urban report said.

But some people need care for many years, pushing lifetime costs well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars — a sum “out of reach for many Americans,” report authors Richard Johnson and Judith Dey wrote.

Planning for long-term care: Here's what you need to know

The number of people who need care is expected to swell as the U.S. population ages amid increasing longevity.

“It’s pretty clear [workers] don’t have that amount of savings in retirement, that amount of savings in their checking or savings accounts, and the majority don’t have long-term care insurance,” said Bridget Bearden, a research and development strategist at the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

“So where is the money going to come from?” she added.

Long-term care costs can exceed $100,000

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It seems many households are unaware of the potential costs, either for themselves or their loved ones.

For example, 73% of workers say there’s at least one adult for whom they may need to provide long-term care in the future, according to a new poll by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

However, just 29% of these future caregivers — who may wind up footing at least part of the future bill —had estimated the future cost of care, EBRI found. Of those who did, 37% thought the price tag would fall below $25,000 a year, the group said.

The EBRI survey polled 2,445 employees from ages 20 to 74 years old in late 2024.

Many types of insurance often don’t cover costs

Maskot | Maskot | Getty Images

Where is the money going to come from?

Bridget Bearden

research and development strategist at the Employee Benefit Research Institute

But Medicare doesn’t cover “custodial” care, when someone needs help with daily activities like bathing, dressing, using the bathroom and eating, McClanahan said. These basic everyday tasks constitute the majority of long-term care needs, according to the HHS-Urban report.

Medicaid is the largest payer of long-term care costs today, Bearden said. Not everyone qualifies, though: Many people who get Medicaid benefits are from lower-income households, EBRI’s Bearden said. To receive benefits for long-term care, households may first have to exhaust a big chunk of their financial assets.

“You basically have to be destitute,” McClanahan said.

Republicans in Washington are weighing cuts to Medicaid as part of a large tax-cut package. If successful, it’d likely be harder for Americans to get Medicaid benefits for long-term care, experts said.

Long-term care insurance considerations

The Good Brigade | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Few households have insurance policies that specifically hedge against long-term care risk: About 7.5 million Americans had some form of long-term care insurance coverage in 2020, according to the Congressional Research Service.

By comparison, more than 4 million baby boomers are expected to retire per year from 2024 to 2027.

Washington state has a public long-term care insurance program for residents, and other states like California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania are exploring their own.

How senior care became a $600 billion business

Long-term care insurance policies make most sense for people who have a high risk of needing care for a lengthy duration, McClanahan said. That may include those who have a high risk of dementia or have longevity in their family history, she said.

McClanahan recommends opting for a hybrid insurance policy that combines life insurance and a long-term care benefit; traditional stand-alone policies only meant for long-term care are generally expensive, she said.

Be wary of how the policy pays benefits, too, she said.

For example, “reimbursement” policies require the insured to choose from a list of preferred providers and submit receipts for reimbursement, McClanahan said. For some, especially seniors, that may be difficult without assistance, she said.

With “indemnity” policies, which McClanahan recommends, insurers generally write benefit checks as soon as the insured qualifies for assistance, and they can spend the money how they see fit. However, the benefit amount is often lower than reimbursement policies, she said.

How to be proactive about long-term care planning

“The challenge with long-term care costs is they’re unpredictable,” McClanahan said. “You don’t always know when you’ll get sick and need care.”

The biggest mistake McClanahan sees people make relative to long-term care: They don’t think about long-term care needs and logistics, or discuss them with family members, long before needing care.

How families are managing the steep costs of long term seniors care

For example, that may entail considering the following questions, McClanahan said:

  • Do I have family members that will help provide care? Would they offer financial assistance? Do I want to self-insure?
  • What are the financial logistics? For example, who will help pay your bills and make insurance claims?
  • Do I have good advance healthcare directives in place? For example, as I get sicker will I let family continue to keep me alive (which adds to long-term care expenses), or will I move to comfort care and hospice?
  • Do I want to age in place? (This is often a cheaper option if you don’t need 24-hour care, McClanahan said.)
  • If I want to age in place, is my home set up for that? (For example, are there many stairs? Is there a tiny bathroom in which it’s tough to maneuver a walker?) Can I make my home aging-friendly, if it’s not already? Would I be willing to move to a new home or perhaps another state with a lower cost of long-term care?
  • Do I live in a rural area where it may be harder to access long-term care?

Being proactive can help families save money in the long term, since reactive decisions are often “way more expensive,” McClanahan said.

“When you think through it in advance it keeps the decisions way more level-headed,” she said.

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College majors with the best and worst employment prospects

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AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images

College commencement is a time of optimism for newly minted graduates. But this year, there’s also more uncertainty about the economy and employment — and grads in some unexpected majors may find they have a leg up.

Majors in nutrition, art history and philosophy all outperformed STEM fields when it comes to employment prospects, according to a recent analysis of labor market outcomes of college graduates by major by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

For computer science and computer engineering, the unemployment rate in those fields was 6.1% and 7.5%, respectively — notably higher than the national average.

By comparison, the unemployment rate for art history majors was 3%, and for nutritional sciences, the unemployment rate was just 0.4%, the New York Fed found. The New York Fed’s report was based on Census data from 2023 and unemployment rates of recent college graduates.

Economics and finance majors also fared worse than those in theology and philosophy when it came to the employment rates for recent college graduates, according to the New York Fed.

Employment prospects are shifting

In general, what you choose to major in has significant implications for your job prospects and future earnings potential.

Majoring in STEM is often touted as the ticket to a well-paying position in good times and bad, and that is mostly true.

In fact, students who pursue a major specifically in computer science or computer engineering — both STEM disciplines — are projected to earn the most right out of school with median wages of $80,000.

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Even so, demand for humanities majors is on the rise, and with good reason, despite some student debt critics taking aim at the low value of some coursework, like “zombie studies,” for example.

At a conference last year, Robert Goldstein, the chief operating officer of BlackRock, the world’s biggest money manager, said the firm was adjusting its hiring strategy for recent grads. “We have more and more conviction that we need people who majored in history, in English, and things that have nothing to do with finance or technology,” Goldstein said.

This demand for liberal arts degrees is due in part to the rise of AI, which drives the need for creative thinking and so-called soft skills

Opportunities in health care

Meanwhile, jobs in the the health care sector continue to be in high demand in 2025.

The U.S. economy added 902,000 health care and social assistance jobs last year and employment in health care occupations is “projected to grow much faster than the average” for all U.S. jobs through 2033, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate among nursing majors is just 1.4%, the New York Fed also found.

“Nursing is extremely resilient in times of economic uncertainty, like we ae seeing right now,” said Travis Moore, a registered nurse and healthcare strategist at job site Indeed.

Although the median wage right out of school [for nurses] is lower than it is for economics and finance majors, heading into a possible economic downturn, job security may be a more important measure, he said.

“There’s a significant nursing shortage going on right now,” Moore said — and that “creates a really strong opportunity to get into a career with really low layoffs.”

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