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What the new presidential administration means for AI and crypto

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An exterior view of the New York Stock Exchange on September 18, 2024 in New York City. 

Stephanie Keith | Getty Images

As the calendar turns to a New Year and a new presidential administration, many investors are wondering where they can earn above-average returns.

The current outlook is positive, with continued interest rate cuts and incoming regulators in President-elect Donald Trump’s administration who are expected to be more friendly to markets, business and technology, venture capitalist Bradley Tusk, co-founder and managing partner of Tusk Venture Partners, said Tuesday at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.

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“We’ll see a friendlier climate toward new technology in fintech, in health-care tech, in energy,” Tusk said.

Two areas — generative AI and cryptocurrency — may be poised for new developments next year, he said.

AI still a world of ‘unfulfilled potential’

Amid the stock runup of 2024, many investment professionals have been bullish on companies that have adopted generative artificial intelligence.

But 2025 could mark the start of a turning point, Tusk said.

“AI is still a world right now of unfulfilled potential,” he said.

Companies that are heavily invested in this area will likely keep investing. Despite the exciting talk of the technology’s use for everything from creating new drugs to teaching children or discovering minerals, it still has to show the economics work, too, Tusk said.

“At some point it has to go from a cool search engine and some really exciting potential ideas to actual revenue or actual saving,” Tusk said.

When it comes to regulation of generative AI, “we really could use some real leadership on the federal level,” Tusk said.

Crypto may be ‘traded more freely’

Current regulators — specifically Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler — have not looked favorably on cryptocurrencies and therefore not provided meaningful guidance, Tusk said.

The new administration may usher in a different tone toward cryptocurrencies, he said.

“I do think that whoever we’re going to see at the SEC, CFTC [Commodity Futures Trading Commission], Treasury, all the various agencies are going to be a lot friendlier to crypto and just a lot more reasonable,” Tusk said.

Congress may also help, he said. In May, the House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, also known as FIT21. Its goal is to help digital asset innovation to grow with consumer protection and regulatory certainty.

The bill has a “pretty good chance of passing the Senate now,” Tusk said, especially with 53 Republican senators.

“I think that will further allow for crypto to be traded more freely and for more innovation in this space,” Tusk said of the prospective legislation.

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What to know at tax time

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Rhetoric & Writing Studies Major, Adamary Garcia studies inside of the Perry-Castaneda Library at the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell  | Getty Images

If your federal student loans were forgiven in 2024, you may be wondering if there are any tax implications.

Many borrowers have benefited from education debt cancellation under the Biden administration. While in office so far, President Joe Biden has cleared nearly $180 billion in federal student loans for 4.9 million people. More than 1 million people had their debt cleared in 2024.

If you’ve had your debt excused last year, here’s what to know at tax time.

No federal taxes on relief through 2025

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 made student loan forgiveness tax-free at the federal level through the end of 2025, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That means you won’t owe anything to Uncle Sam on any federal education debt cleared throughout 2024.

It shouldn’t matter under what program the loans were forgiven, be it Public Service Loan Forgiveness, an income-driven repayment plan or Borrower Defense. The Biden administration has delivered most of its relief through one of those avenues.

(In case you aren’t familiar: PSLF leads to student debt erasure for certain public servants after a decade of qualifying payments. Meanwhile, IDR plans conclude in debt cancellation after a certain period of payments, typically 20 years or 25 years. And Borrower Defense wipes away the debt for students who’ve been defrauded by their schools.)

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Even canceled private student debt shouldn’t trigger a federal tax bill thanks to the terms of the American Rescue Plan, said Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program, based in New York. That law is set to expire Dec. 31, 2025.

Meanwhile, student debt excused in bankruptcy should never be subject to federal or state taxes, Kantrowitz added.

You could owe taxes to your state

Despite the current federal policy on forgiven student debt, it’s possible a borrower could still face state taxes.

Currently, a handful of states tax certain kinds of student loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. That could be because their state tax code doesn’t conform to the federal one or hasn’t been updated to reflect the American Rescue Plan.

You’ll want to check with your state or a tax professional to learn if your relief triggers any liability.

Many states mirror their student loan forgiveness tax policy on the federal government. As a result, if the American Rescue Plan’s provision expires, more states could levy the forgiven debt again, too.

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Bitcoin soared in 2024. How much — if any — should you own?

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A bitcoin ATM in Miami. 

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Bitcoin prices soared in 2024. But you may want to tread with caution before euphoria leads you on a hasty buying spree.

Bitcoin and other crypto should generally account for just a sliver of investor portfolios — generally no more than 5% — due to its extreme volatility, according to financial experts.

Some investors may be wise to stay away from it altogether, they said.

“You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500,” said Ivory Johnson, a certified financial planner and founder of Delancey Wealth Management, based in Washington, D.C.

“Whenever you have a real volatile asset class, you need less of it in the portfolio to have the same impact” as traditional assets like stocks and bonds, said Johnson, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

Why bitcoin prices increased in 2024

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, was the top-performing investment of 2024, by a long shot. Prices surged about 125%, ending the year around $94,000 after starting in the $40,000 range.

By comparison, the S&P 500, a U.S. stock index, rose 23%. The Nasdaq, a tech-heavy stock index, grew 29%.

Prices popped after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win. His administration is expected to embrace deregulatory policies that would spur crypto demand.

A cartoon image of President-elect Donald Trump holding a bitcoin token in Hong Kong, China, on Dec. 5, 2024, to mark the cryptocurrency reaching over $100,000. 

Justin Chin/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission also — for the first time — approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in bitcoin and ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, making crypto easier for retail investors to buy.

But experts cautioned that lofty profits may belie an underlying danger.

“With high returns come high risk, and crypto is no exception,” Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist for Morningstar Research Services, wrote in June.

Bitcoin has been nearly five times as volatile as U.S. stocks since September 2015, and ether has been nearly 10 times as volatile, Arnott wrote.

“A portfolio weighting of 5% or less seems prudent, and many investors may want to skip cryptocurrency altogether,” she said.

1% to 2% is ‘reasonable’ for bitcoin, BlackRock says

Bitcoin lost 64% and 74% of its value in 2022 and 2018, respectively.

Mathematically, investors need a 100% return to recover from a 50% loss.

So far, crypto returns have been high enough to offset its additional risk — but it’s not a given that pattern will continue, Arnott said.

You’re not going to have the same size allocation in bitcoin as you would Nasdaq or the S&P 500.

Ivory Johnson

CFP, founder of Delancey Wealth Management

There are a few reasons for this: Crypto has become less valuable as a portfolio diversifier as it’s gotten more mainstream, Arnott wrote. Its popularity among speculative buyers also “makes it prone to pricing bubbles that will eventually burst,” she added.

BlackRock, a money manager, thinks there’s a case for owning bitcoin in a diversified portfolio, for investors who are comfortable with the “risk of potentially rapid price plunges” and who believe it will become more widely adopted, experts at the BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in early December.

(BlackRock offers a bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT.)

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A 1% to 2% allocation to bitcoin is a “reasonable range,” BlackRock experts wrote.

Going beyond would “sharply increase” bitcoin’s share of a portfolio’s total risk, they said.

For example, a 2% bitcoin allocation accounts for roughly 5% of the risk of a traditional 60/40 portfolio, BlackRock estimated. But a 4% allocation swells that figure to 14% of total portfolio risk, it said.

More ‘speculation’ than investment?

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Stock investors own shares of companies that produce goods or services, and many investors get dividends; bond investors receive regular interest payments; and commodities are real assets that meet consumption needs, Jackson wrote.

“While crypto has been classified as a commodity, it’s an immature asset class that has little history, no inherent economic value, no cash flow, and can create havoc within a portfolio,” wrote Jackson, now an executive in the firm’s Financial Advisor Services unit.

Dollar-cost average and hold for the long term

Ultimately, one’s total crypto allocation is a function of an investor’s appetite for and ability to take risk, according to financial advisors.

“Younger, more aggressive investors might allocate more [crypto] to their portfolios,” said Douglas Boneparth, a CFP based in New York and member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

Investors generally hold about 5% of their classic 80/20 or 60/40 portfolio in crypto, said Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth.

“I think it could be a good idea to have some exposure to bitcoin in your portfolio, but it’s not for everyone and it will remain volatile,” Boneparth said. “As far as other cryptocurrencies are concerned, it’s difficult to pinpoint which ones are poised to be a good long-term investment. That’s not to say there won’t be winners.”

Investors who want to buy into crypto should consider using a dollar-cost-averaging strategy, said Johnson, of Delancey Wealth Management.

 “I buy 1% at a time until I get to my target risk,” Johnson said. “And that way I’m not putting 3%, 4%, 5% at one time and then something happens where it drops precipitously.”

It’d also be prudent for investors interested in crypto to buy and hold it for the long term, as they would with other financial assets, Johnson said.

Morningstar suggests holding cryptocurrency for at least 10 years, Arnott wrote.

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2025 tax season starts Jan. 27. Here’s how to file for free

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Pra-chid | Istock | Getty Images

Expanded free filing options for 2025

For the 2025 season, Direct File, the IRS’ free tax filing program, will be open to eligible taxpayers in 25 states. That’s up from 12 states for the 2024 season.

This year, participating states include Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington state, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Meanwhile, IRS Free File, which offers free guided tax prep through software partners, opened on Jan. 10. Eligible taxpayers can electronically file returns prepared via Free File partners starting on Jan. 27.

Tax Tip: Earned Income Credit

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