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World readies for Trump tariffs even before his White House return

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Donald Trump’s inauguration promises to usher in an era of upheaval in global commerce, forcing governments around the world to scramble in preparation for a tariff onslaught even before he’s back in the White House. 

Soon after calls to congratulate the president-elect on his Nov. 5 victory, officials began quietly looking for ways to appease him while simultaneously mapping out ways to retaliate if needed. 

The threat to China is longstanding, meaning its leaders have had ample time to prepare defenses and retaliatory strategies. But this time around, Trump and the trade hawks he’s enlisted are broadening their scope in what threatens to be a more prolonged and unpredictable trade war than during his first presidency. not supported.

Mexico and Canada have borne much of the brunt of Trump’s trade threats since election day, prompting leaders from both American neighbors to publicly warn of retaliation. Others are making preparations behind the scenes — Vietnam’s officials have promised to buy more U.S. goods, the European Union has bolstered its ability to counter tariffs, while Indian officials aim to negotiate their way through the coming storm.

“Trump 2.0 trade policy seems to be much more radical compared to 1.0,” says Yeo Han-koo , senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former South Korean trade minister. “It’s like a prisoner’s dilemma — the best scenario for all these countries is to band together and then resist, but there’s a motivation for each country to race to get a better deal compared to your competitors.”

If implemented, Trump’s threats to increase levies on Chinese goods to 60% and to 20% for the rest of the world would transform the structure of global trade flows away from the U.S., according to Bloomberg Economics. Retaliation would exacerbate the shock. 

Behind the scenes

In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum warned of the hit to U.S. inflation in response to Trump’s 25% tariff threats. The country has been quietly rolling out a strategy to reduce reliance on China. Developed over the last few months, the government’s plan includes tapping major automakers about sourcing components elsewhere. 

Law enforcement kicked off a country-wide “cleaning operation” with a raid on a Mexico City shopping complex filled with Chinese goods in November. The following week, Mexico announced its biggest-ever seizure of fentanyl pills, a drug Trump says is being smuggled into the U.S. from its southern neighbor. 

Mexico is set to scale up such efforts, carrying out searches for goods that entered the country without proper taxation. To that end, Mexico slapped 19% tariffs on goods imported through courier companies, a move that analysts said targets major e-retailers Temu and Shein. 

“If we coordinate on this, there won’t be any tariffs,” Sheinbaum said about working with the US in late November.

In Canada, outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to meet with Trump days after his 25% tariff threat. Following Trump’s suggestion that its northern neighbor become America’s 51st state, Trudeau shot back there’s not a “snowball’s chance in hell” of that happening. 

How the country approaches Trump has been thrown in limbo with Trudeau’s resignation. Behind the scenes, officials are examining export taxes on major commodities it sends to the U.S. in a move that would drive up American prices. 

When Trump enacted levies on $200 billion in imports from China in 2018-2019, Vietnam was one of the biggest beneficiaries as exports to the U.S. more than doubled. Up to 16% of the increase in 2021 alone was a result of rerouting of goods to avoid U.S. tariffs on China, according to a Harvard Business School white paper

Now, Vietnam — which has the fourth-biggest trade surplus with the U.S. after China, Mexico and Canada — appears to be in Trump’s sights. His trade advisor Peter Navarro called out the country by name in Project 2025, a right-wing policy blueprint. 

Vietnam’s leaders in recent months have made efforts to balance the relationship between China and the US. The country’s deputy minister of foreign affairs has vowed to buy more aircraft, liquefied natural gas and other products while Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has emphasized the need to “remove all remaining obstacles” with the U.S. 

Similarly, South Korea and Taiwan are considering plans to boost energy imports from the US to avoid Trump’s ire. 

Balancing act

Increased dependency on the U.S. as a source of demand makes economies such as Vietnam more exposed should Trump decide to apply a universal tariff on all imports, by undercutting the business case to build new factories. Apart from China, economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand would be more exposed considering their high trade orientation, economists at Morgan Stanley led by Chetan Ahya wrote in a November note.

South Korea was forced to revise down its growth outlook, partly as a result of the growing geopolitical tensions contributing to weaker demand for the country’s exports. A top national security adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the country should be prepared for the U.S. following through on tariff threats, meeting with Trump’s team during a visit to the U.S. late last year. 

Then there’s the blow from second-round consequences.  

“If Trump’s tariffs lead to China’s exports redirecting to the rest of Asia — and they’re very competitive — it’s very difficult for countries to compete,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for India and Asia-ex Japan at Nomura Singapore Ltd. “That is something a lot of governments are thinking about.”

Among those economies that are increasingly worried about unfair competition from China is the EU, which faces twin concerns of an influx of cheap Chinese goods — particularly electric vehicles — and a new wave of tariffs from the U.S. Officials there have already prepared a list of American goods it could target with tariffs in the event Trump follows through with his threats. 

Since Trump’s first term, EU member states have agreed to a new set of trade powers that will allow the bloc to strike back at third countries that use economic restrictions for political retribution. The EU’s new anti-coercion instrument strengthens trade defenses and enables the commission to impose tariffs or other punitive measures in response to such politically motivated restrictions.

Officials in Brazil appear less concerned about any U.S. tariffs, believing the nation can ramp up sales to other markets including Asian countries in the case it’s targeted. Indian officials are also allaying apprehensions for now, betting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s good relations with Trump during his first presidency will continue and they have room to lower import duties for U.S. goods as part of any forthcoming negotiations. 

“Economies are just stuck between a rock and a hard place in many ways,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “It’s a very, very difficult course to navigate to appease both US demands to decouple from China, but at the same time to remain economically engaged with China.”

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PwC report says AI boosts productivity, wages

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Artificial intelligence is actually boosting productivity and wages, a new report found.

PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer report, released today, analyzed nearly a billion job ads across six continents. It found that AI is making workers more productive, valuable and able to demand higher wage premiums.

“This research shows that the power of AI to deliver for businesses is already being realised. And we are only at the start of the transition,” Carol Stubbings, global chief commercial officer at PwC, said in a statement. “As we roll out Agentic AI at enterprise scale, we are seeing that the right combination of technology and culture can create dramatic new opportunities to reimagine how organisations work and create value.”

Surprisingly to some, the data does not show job or wage destruction from AI. Job availability actually grew 38% in roles that were more exposed to AI, although that figure remains below the growth rate in less exposed occupations (65%). And wages grew twice as fast in AI-exposed industries, reaching 56% growth in 2024 versus 25% the previous year. Jobs that require AI skills have also continued  to grow faster than all jobs, rising 7.5% from last year while total job postings fell 11.3%.

“In contrast to worries that AI could cause sharp reductions in the number of jobs available — this year’s findings show jobs are growing in virtually every type of AI-exposed occupation, including highly automatable ones,” PwC’s global chief AI officer Joe Atkinson said in a statement. “AI is amplifying and democratizing expertise, enabling employees to multiply their impact and focus on higher-level responsibilities. With the right foundations, both companies and workers can re-define their roles and industries and emerge leaders in their field, particularly as the full gambit of applications becomes clearer.”

In addition, industries the most exposed to AI saw three times higher growth in revenue per employee (27%) versus those less exposed (9%). And skills sought by employers are changing 66% faster in the most exposed jobs.

“AI’s rapid advance is not just re-shaping industries, but fundamentally altering the workforce and the skills required,” PwC’s global workforce leader Pete Brown said in a statement. “This is not a situation that employers can easily buy their way out of. Even if they can pay the premium required to attract talent with AI skills, those skills can quickly become out of date without investment in the systems to help the workforce learn.”

In light of its findings, the report recommends five actions for businesses:

  1. Use AI for enterprise-wide transformation;
  2. Treat AI as a growth strategy, not just an efficiency strategy;
  3. Prioritise Agentic AI;
  4. Enable your workforce to have the skills to make the most of AI’s power; and,
  5. Unlock AI’s transformative potential by building trust.

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How accounting firms use technology in 2025

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Enjoy complimentary access to top ideas and insights — selected by our editors.

Accountants are adopting more technology to streamline processes and provide new capabilities within their practices, but how are they using technology to achieve their goals?

Wolters Kluwer’s Annual Accounting Industry Survey Report reveals how accounting firms plan to utilize technology in 2025, based on quantitative interviews of 1,776 tax and accounting firms of all sizes from the United States. According to the report, a majority of respondents noted growing revenue and profits as a goal for 2025, with other top goals including improving client service and engagement, as well as reducing costs. 

In 2025, large accounting firms are more likely to add new technologies, but only 37% have definite plans to implement any new technology. 

Based on the report, generative AI is the top emerging technology that accountants are interested in, with 72% considering using it for research purposes, and client communications following at 64% and marketing at 40%. 

Using updated technology, a majority of firms are planning for remote tax return preparation, with 54% of respondents intending to perform more returns with no in-office contact in the next few years. 

Read more about accounting firms’ technology goals for 2025.

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Tax Strategy: Provisions of the House tax bill the Senate is most likely to scrutinize

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The Senate has a stated goal to complete work on the budget reconciliation bill by the beginning of July 2025. Anticipating that the Senate will make modifications to the House version, the bill could then go back to the House for a vote or go to a House/Senate conference to work out differences and then get another vote in both chambers. It appears likely that a July 1 deadline for finalization of the bill will be difficult to achieve.

The most critical deadline Congress is facing for the legislation is enactment of additional government borrowing authority before the current authorization limit is reached, which is expected to be sometime during August. As we approach August, the specific deadline should become clearer. Expect work on the bill to continue toward that deadline.

The bill passed the House by only a one-vote margin. Several Republican senators have said that they want changes to the House bill. However, no Republican senator is saying that they want to defeat the bill. They just want to make it more beautiful. The following are some of the key areas of focus for possible Senate modification.

The SALT deduction limit

The House bill raises the state and local tax deduction limit from $10,000 to $40,000, with a last-minute increase from $30,000 to win over enough Republican House members from high-tax states. The Senate seems inclined to oppose any increase in the limit. There are no Republican Senators from those same high-tax states, such as California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York, to form a similar bloc seeking relief that exists in the House. However, the Senate also would realize that eliminating the House SALT limit increase could make it difficult to get passage of the bill next time around in the House without the SALT provision.

This is the type of difference where a compromise might be reached in a conference committee on the bill. One concern is the cost of increasing the deduction limit, and that the increase benefits mostly wealthier taxpayers. Coming up with some additional revenue offsets or cost reductions could help reach a compromise on this issue.

Temporary provisions

The House, to meet its budget targets, has proposed several temporary provisions. Most of the extensions of the individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act have been made permanent. However, the new deductions for tips and overtime pay, as well as several other provisions, are only around for as short a time as four years. Some Senate Republicans would prefer to try to make provisions permanent when possible.

The main issue with making them permanent would be coming up with additional revenue or cost cuts to pay for permanence within the agreed-budget parameters. Republicans have already agreed that they will take the position that extensions of provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act do not have to be paid for since they are merely extensions of provisions already in the tax law. Those extensions, of course, still add to the deficit.

Other potential sources of revenue offsets include cost cuts. However, some Republican senators are already uncomfortable with the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or Food Stamps) cuts in the House version. Other sources of revenue include reductions in the federal workforce; however, the efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency have so far not achieved the reductions that had been hoped. 

Tariffs could also provide a possible source of revenue; however, the level of tariffs keeps changing and it might be hard to settle on an expected level of tariff revenue over the next 10 years. Republicans are also fond of projecting economic growth resulting from the tax cuts in the legislation. Those projections often appear overly optimistic, and the Congressional Budget Office is usually less optimistic about projected economic growth.

Clean energy credits

The House bill eliminates or phases down many of the clean energy credits created by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. It is primarily the individual tax breaks for clean energy vehicles and energy-efficient homes that are eliminated. The argument is that clean vehicles and energy-efficient homes no longer need tax incentives, although that might not be true for some of these credits, especially the credit for alternative fuel charging stations. 

In addition to accelerating the phase-outs for some of the business-focused clean energy credits, the bill also restricts their use by foreign entities and eliminates transferability of some of the credits.

Republican Senators are concerned about the possible adverse impact on clean energy projects that have been proposed or are underway in their states. They want the tax credits that incentivized those projects to be available through to completion. These include the Code Sec. 45Y Clean Electricity Production Credit and the Code Sec. 48E Clean Electricity Investment Credit, which under the House bill would end for projects where construction is not commenced until more than 60 days after enactment. Other affected credits include the Code Sec. 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, the Code Sec. 45U nuclear credit, and the Code Sec. 45Q carbon recapture credit.

Repeal and phase-down of these clean energy credits does provide a source of revenue to help pay for other tax cuts. Therefore, Republican Senators who want to facilitate state projects may be comfortable with just stretching out the phase-down period a little further.

Child Tax Credit

The House has proposed to increase the Child Tax Credit to $2,500 through 2028. After that, the credit would fall to $2,000 but be indexed for inflation. Only up to $1,400 would be refundable. Some Republican senators would prefer to make further enhancements to the Child Tax Credit to assist lower income families. This would probably not be opposed in the House provided that a favorable revenue offset can be identified.

Summary

It will be a few weeks before the stated deadline for the Senate to have completed work on and voted on the bill will have arrived. By that time, the date by which the government will have reached the limit of its borrowing authority will have been more narrowly identified. The deficit hawks in the House may find that they have found more effective support for their position on debt reduction in the Senate. The SALT limitation hawks in the House may find little support for their position among Senate Republicans.

Even as a Senate bill nears completion, it will likely differ in many respects from the House bill, including in the areas discussed herein, and the House and Senate will have until sometime in August to resolve their differences. Those differences will likely somehow get resolved, since Republicans generally view not passing a bill as the worst of all alternatives. It will be the pressure of the August deadline that will force those compromises.

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