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DOGE layoffs may ‘overwhelm’ unemployment system for federal workers

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President Donald Trump listens during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Feb. 26, 2025.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The Trump administration’s purge of federal staff may flood an unemployment benefits system ill-equipped to handle the deluge, triggering delays in aid for jobless workers, according to a new report.

The terminations of federal workers by the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency — headed up by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk — may ultimately stretch into the hundreds of thousands. That would amount to the largest mass layoff in U.S. history.

The scale of cuts would likely “overwhelm” the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program, the “rarely utilized and creaky” system most federal workers use to claim unemployment benefits, according to a report by The Century Foundation, a progressive think tank.  

The result would likely be longer time frames to collect financial aid that’s meant to help workers stay afloat and prevent them from depleting savings as they look for new jobs, said Andrew Stettner, the group’s director of economy and jobs, who co-authored the analysis.

“We’re already hearing it’s taking a long time for people to get their benefits,” said Stettner, former director of unemployment insurance modernization at the U.S. Labor Department during the Biden administration. “And it will probably only get worse.”

The Department of Labor oversees the UCFE program, which is administered by state unemployment agencies.

Elon Musk holds a chainsaw reading “Long live freedom, damn it” during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 20, 2025. 

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

More than 62,000 federal workers across 17 agencies lost their jobs in February alone, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm, reported Thursday. By comparison, there were 151 cuts in January and February last year, it said.

Employers have announced almost 222,000 job cuts so far in 2025, the highest year-to-date total since 2009, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said.

“The sudden surge of claims due to federal layoffs has some worrisome similarities to the pandemic, despite its much smaller scale,” according to the Century report.

States will have to process a “drastically greater” volume of claims for the UCFE program, it said.

The Labor Department didn’t return a request from CNBC for comment.

Federal unemployment program more ‘manual’

The UCFE program differs from the unemployment insurance system for private-sector workers — and has unique challenges.

The private-sector UI system is more automated, while that for federal workers requires more manual inputs that can significantly slow the process during times of high volume, Stettner said.

Specifically, private companies pass an employee’s earnings and employment records on a quarterly basis to the appropriate jurisdiction, Stettner said. (That jurisdiction may be a state, territory or the District of Columbia, depending on where the employee worked.)

Mass government layoffs: Impact on the labor force and the economy

These employment records are necessary to determine factors like eligibility and weekly payments if a worker claims jobless benefits.

However, the UCFE program isn’t as streamlined. After a worker applies, the state fills out a form and submits a request to the federal agency at which an employee worked, which then verifies the claim’s accuracy, Stettner said.

The federal system is generally “such a small program, it basically works by hand,” he said.

About 7,400 people were collecting federal unemployment benefits as of Feb. 15, up roughly 12% from the same time last year, according to Labor Department data issued Thursday. The number could easily climb to 10 or 20 times that amount, more than they system has ever fielded, Stettner said.

Additionally, the federal government may try to contest claims in certain situations, which could further slow the process, he added. For example, many probationary workers received termination letters saying they’d been fired for cause; while that characterization doesn’t generally prevent workers from getting benefits, the government may use it as a reason to dispute a benefits application, Stettner said.

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Federal workers may find themselves in a tough financial situation if they can’t access benefits quickly.

That’s because it may be difficult for workers to find new jobs, especially in regional labor markets most impacted by mass layoffs.

“Unfortunately, this labor market will not be conducive to a quick rebound — hiring rates are relatively low and uncertainty across the economy is likely to make businesses cautious about labor investments,” Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, wrote Thursday.

Road blocks for the Trump administration, DOGE

“It appears the administration wants to cut even more workers, but an order to fire the roughly 200,000 probationary employees was blocked by a federal judge,” said Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “It remains to be seen how many more workers will lose their Federal Government roles.”

Additionally, the Merit Systems Protection Board, which handles federal worker disputes, temporarily reinstated about 6,000 workers at the U.S. Department of Agriculture in their old positions effective Wednesday.

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What it means for Social Security benefits

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Frank Bisignano testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on his nomination to be Commissioner of the Social Security Administration, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, March 25, 2025. 

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

The Senate has voted to confirm Frank Bisignano as the new commissioner of the Social Security Administration, ushering in new leadership at a federal agency that has already undergone many changes this year under the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency.

Bisignano, the chairman and CEO of payments and financial technology company Fiserv Inc., was nominated to serve as Social Security commissioner in December by then President-elect Donald Trump. Trump started his second term on Jan. 20.

The Social Security Administration, which provides monthly benefit checks to more than 73 million beneficiaries, is currently operating under temporary leadership. Acting commissioner Leland Dudek took the helm in February, replacing Michelle King, who stepped down from the temporary role due to concerns about DOGE’s access to sensitive data.

A federal judge has since granted a preliminary injunction that prevents DOGE from accessing personally identifiable information including Social Security numbers, medical records, addresses, bank records, tax information and other sensitive data.

Bisignano’s confirmation vote on Tuesday was divided by party lines. Prior to the vote, Republicans had expressed support for Trump’s nominee, while Democrats raised concerns about Bisignano’s prospective leadership and his alleged ties to DOGE.

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On the eve of the Senate confirmation vote, Democrats including Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon held a rally outside the Senate building to oppose Bisignano’s nomination.

“We want Donald Trump to stand with working families and seniors and stop the attack on Social Security once and for all,” Wyden, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, said at the Monday event.

Following the Tuesday Senate vote, advocacy groups expressed concern about the new agency leadership.

“This vote was an opportunity for the Senate to reject the decimation of Social Security, and demand that Trump nominate a commissioner who will stop the bleeding,” Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, said in a statement. “Instead, every Senate Republican just signed off on the DOGE destruction of Social Security.”

Neither Fiserv nor the White House responded to CNBC’s requests for comment by press time.

Who is Frank Bisignano?

Bisignano currently serves as chairman and CEO of Fiserv, which processes more than $2.5 trillion in payments per day, according to his Senate testimony.

Bisignano came to that role after serving as chairman and CEO of First Data Corp., which went public in 2015 and combined with Fiserv in 2019.

Before that, Bisignano was co-chief operating officer for JPMorgan Chase and CEO of its mortgage banking unit. Prior to JPMorgan Chase, he held several roles at Citigroup.

Bisignano was raised in a working class, multigenerational immigrant household in Brooklyn, New York, according to his Senate testimony. Bisignano’s father was a 46-year Department of Treasury employee who worked in customs enforcement.

“He was the hardest working person I’ve known,” Bisignano said in his Senate testimony. “I view federal workers from that vantage point.”

What lawmakers said about Bisignano’s nomination

During the consideration of Bisignano’s nomination, Democrats repeatedly raised concerns about his viability to lead the agency.

Warren and Wyden sent a letter to Bisignano ahead of his March confirmation hearing to ask about his views on privatizing the agency. The efforts by DOGE to “hollow out” the agency and “deprive Americans of Social Security benefits they earned and need” may pave the way for a “private sector fix,” the Democratic leaders said.

In his Senate testimony, Bisignano said he did not intend to privatize the agency.

“I’ve never thought about privatizing,” Bisignano said. “It’s not a word that anybody’s ever talked to me about. I don’t see this institution as anything other than a government agency that gets run for the American public.”

Fiserv CEO on the nomination to Social Security Commisioner role

During the Senate hearing, Bisignano also faced questions about his involvement with recent changes at the Social Security Administration and with DOGE.

Wyden introduced an anonymous whistleblower letter from a “senior Social Security Administration employee who recently left the agency,” who said Bisignano had been briefed on “key SSA operations, personnel and management decisions.”

In response to a question about whether he would “lock DOGE out,” Bisignano promised to protect personally identifiable information.

“I am going to do whatever is required to protect the information that is private,” Bisignano said.

However, during a February CNBC interview, Bisignano said he is “fundamentally a DOGE person.”

While Democrats have cast doubt on Bisignano’s nomination, the Fiserv CEO has received praise from Republicans and former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill.

In a March CNBC interview, Weill praised Bisignano as a “great manager” and “terrific person.”

“He used to work for me, and I think he’s the best operations person I’ve ever met in my life,” Weill said, adding we would be “very lucky to have him in that job.”

What Bisignano has said about Social Security

During a March Senate confirmation hearing, as he fielded questions from senators on a host of issues facing the Social Security Administration, Bisignano said it will be important to “put the beneficiaries first.”

“The ability to receive payments on time and accurately is job one,” Bisignano said.

Among the priorities Bisignano said he would emphasize if confirmed include bringing the Social Security’s error rate down, citing an Office of the Inspector General report that put it at around 1%.

“That’s a very high payment processing error rate,” Bisignano said, calling it “five decimal places too high.”

Reducing the agency’s error rate will help eliminate overpayment issues, where beneficiaries receive too much money in their benefit checks. Those errors, which may take months or years to catch, typically leave beneficiaries owing large sums to the Social Security Administration.

From fiscal years 2015 through 2022, the Social Security Administration paid about $71.8 billion in improper payments out of almost $8.6 trillion in benefits, representing about 0.84%, according to a 2024 Office of the Inspector General report.

The agency is currently in the process of adjusting the default withholding rate to 50% for certain benefits affected by overpayments, such as retirement, survivors and disability insurance. Under President Joe Biden, the default rate had been lowered to 10% of monthly benefits or $10, whichever was greater.

“I’m going to make sure that we recover all the money we should recover, but on the other hand we have to be humans in the process, too,” Bisignano told the Senate about overpayment clawbacks.

Bisignano also said he planned to reduce the chronically long wait times Americans face when seeking help from the agency, including when calling its 800 number or when applying for disability benefits.

Having to wait for more than 20 minutes on the phone is not acceptable, Bisignano said. Social Security Administration data shows only about 46% of calls get answered, likely because people get discouraged and hang up, he said.

“I think we could get that to under a minute,” Bisignano said of the agency’s phone wait times, in part by making AI available to people answering the phones to more quickly prompt them with the information they need to answer individuals’ queries.

Bisignano also promised to investigate why it takes so much time to process disability applications. Initial eligibility determinations currently take around seven months, a wait time that has doubled since prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the Urban Institute.

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How soon defaulted student loan borrowers may face collections

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US President Donald Trump signs executive orders relating to higher education institutions, alongside US Secretary of Education Linda McMahon (R), in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 23, 2025.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

The Trump administration resumed collection efforts on defaulted student loans Monday after a roughly five-year hiatus — and affected borrowers could begin feeling the financial consequences sooner than experts expected.

The U.S. Department of Education released new details on what actions it plans to take, when.

Here’s what to know.

Federal benefits could be garnished by June

Wages at risk over the summer

The Treasury Department will send notices to 5.3 million defaulted borrowers about the collection activity of their wages “later this summer,” the Education Department wrote in the Monday press release.

How student loan collection efforts have changed

The U.S. government has extraordinary collection powers on federal debts and it can seize borrowers’ federal tax refundswages, and Social Security retirement and disability benefits.

But in the past, student loan borrowers were usually given 65 days’ notice before the garnishment of their federal benefits, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

“Odd that they say a 30-day notice,” Kantrowitz said.

Historically, the offsets to people’s retirement and disability benefits were also “a last resort,” Kantrowitz said, “occurring a year after wage garnishment and other attempts at collection had failed.”

“Given the timing, it sounds like they are not pursuing the normal due diligence schedule for collecting defaulted federal student loans,” Kantrowitz added.

Social Security garnishments may hurt retirees

Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York, recently told CNBC that she was especially concerned about the consequences of resumed collections on retirees.

“Losing a portion of their Social Security benefits to repay student loans could mean not having enough for food, transportation to medical appointments or other basic necessities,” Rodriguez said in an April interview.

Student loan default collection restarting

There are some 2.9 million people ages 62 and older with federal student loans, as of the first quarter of 2025, according to Education Department data. That’s a 71% increase from 2017, when there were 1.7 million such borrowers.

How to avoid collection activity

Borrowers in default will receive emails making them aware of the new policy, the Education Department said. You can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group and pursue a number of different avenues to get current on your loans, including enrolling in an income-driven repayment plan or signing up for loan rehabilitation

Some borrowers may also be eligible for deferments or a forbearance, which are different ways to pause your payments, Rodriguez said.

“We’re advising clients to request a retroactive forbearance to cover missed payments, and a temporary forbearance until they can get enrolled in an income-driven repayment plan,” she said.

Are you at risk of collection activity because you’re behind on your student loans? If you’re willing to share your experience for an upcoming story, please email me at [email protected]

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How holding rates steady affects you

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Fed isn't losing control of inflation or inflation expectations, says Roth Capital's Michael Darda

On the heels of a stronger-than-expected jobs report and elevated inflation readings, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting this week — despite pressure from President Donald Trump.

“Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!” Trump said in a Truth Social post Friday.

As an independent agency, the central bank has always operated autonomously from the White House. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that monetary policy decisions are completely separate from politics. At the same time, the president’s new trade policies are a barrier to cutting rates, in part because economists expect the new tariffs could lead to a widespread rise in prices that complicate inflation forecasts.

To be sure, many Americans are getting squeezed by high prices and high borrowing costs, while the potential inflation impacts from a costly trade war weigh heavily on household budgets.

“Consumers are always the ones who pay the price,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.

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The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates consumers see every day.

“Uncertainty rules amid a trade war and the ever-changing landscape of tariffs,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “But with the hard data on consumer spending and employment still hanging in there, the Fed will remain firmly planted on the sidelines.”

Markets now widely expect the Fed to wait to cut rates until July, with two or three more reductions to follow by the end of the year.

Once the federal funds rate comes down, borrowing costs could decrease across a variety of consumer debt, such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgage rates, making it easier to access cheaper money. 

Here’s a breakdown of how it works.

Credit cards

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

For the most part, the average annual percentage rate has hovered just over 20% this year, according to Bankrate, not far from last year’s all-time high

The Fed holding steady isn’t the only thing keeping credit card rates high. “Banks are nervous about all of the uncertainty in the economy and what it means for consumers,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“When that happens, banks try to minimize risk as much as possible, and one of the ways they do that is to raise interest rates on credit cards,” he said.

Credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Total credit card debt and average balances are also at record highs.

Mortgages

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, concerns about the direction of the economic policy and Trump’s tariff plans have been a drag on rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.81%, down from 7.04% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate. But for potential home buyers, that’s not enough of a decline to give the housing market a boost.

“Unfortunately for those shopping for a home this summer, rates are likely to stay in or around that range in the near future,” Schulz said.

Auto loans

Although auto loan rates have seen little change, car payments have gone up because prices are rising, while Trump’s 25% tariffs of imported vehicles adds more pressure.

Currently, the average rate on a five-year new car loan is 7.33%, down from 7.53% in January, according to Bankrate.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.

Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note and aren’t likely to change much. Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24.

Although borrowers with existing federal student debt balances won’t see their rates change, many are now facing other headwinds and fewer federal loan forgiveness options.

Savings

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts still offer above-average returns and currently pay as much as 4.5%, according to Bankrate. While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate — so holding that rate unchanged has kept savings rates elevated, for now.

“For consumers, oftentimes the best way to protect your finances in times of uncertainty is to double-down on boosting emergency savings and eliminating high interest rate debt,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “This builds a buffer in the event of an income disruption or unanticipated expenses and insulates you from costly borrowing.”

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