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Private payroll growth slowed to 122,000 in July, less than expected, ADP says

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Private job growth slowed further in July while the pace of wage gains hit a three-year low, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Companies added just 122,000 jobs on the month, the slowest pace since January and below the upwardly revised 155,000 in June. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 150,000.

ADP also reported that wages for those who stayed in their jobs increased 4.8% from a year ago, the smallest rise since July 2021 and down 0.1 percentage point from June.

“With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve’s effort to slow inflation,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “If inflation goes back up, it won’t be because of labor.”

Futures tied to major stock indexes added to gains following the report while Treasury yields fell.

There was more positive inflation news Wednesday, as the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the employment cost index, an indicator Fed officials watch closely, increased just 0.9% in the second quarter, according to seasonally adjusted figures.

That was below the 1.2% acceleration in the first quarter and the Dow Jones estimate for a 1% increase.

Both reports could add to the likelihood that the Fed will signal a September rate cut when it concludes its two-day meeting later in the day.

Job growth was heavily concentrated in two sectors — trade, transportation and utilities, which added 61,000 workers, and construction, which contributed 39,000. Other sectors seeing gains included leisure and hospitality (24,000), education and health services (22,000), and other services (19,000).

Several sectors reported net losses on the month. They included professional and business services (-37,000), information (-18,000), and manufacturing (-4,000). Companies that employ fewer than 50 people also registered a loss, down 7,000 in July.

Geographically, the job gains were concentrated in the South, which saw a gain of 55,000, while the Midwest added just 17,000.

The ADP report comes two days before the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payrolls count, which, unlike the ADP tally, includes government jobs. The two reports can differ substantially, with ADP overshooting the BLS estimate of 136,000 for private payrolls in June.

Economists expect job growth of 185,000 in July, down from 206,000 in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct the name of the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economics

Elon Musk’s failure in government

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WHEN DONALD TRUMP announced last November that Elon Musk would be heading a government-efficiency initiative, many of his fellow magnates were delighted. The idea, wrote Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, a venture-capital firm, was “one of the greatest things I’ve ever read.” Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge-fund manager, wrote his own three-step guide to how DOGE, as it became known, could influence government policy. Even Bernie Sanders, a left-wing senator, tweeted hedged support, saying that Mr Musk was “right”, pointing to waste and fraud in the defence budget.

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Economics

The fantastical world of Republican economic thinking

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The elites of the American right cannot reconcile the inconsistencies in their policy platform

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Economics

People cooking at home at highest level since Covid, Campbell’s says

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A worker arranges cans of Campbell’s soup on a supermarket shelf in San Rafael, California.

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Campbell’s has seen customers prepare their own meals at the highest rate in about half a decade, offering the latest sign of everyday people tightening their wallets amid economic concerns.

“Consumers are cooking at home at the highest levels since early 2020,” Campbell’s CEO Mick Beekhuizen said Monday, adding that consumption has increased among all income brackets in the meals and beverages category.

Beekhuizen drew parallels between today and the time when Americans were facing the early stages of what would become a global pandemic. It was a period of broad economic uncertainty as the Covid virus affected every aspect of everyday life and caused massive shakeups in spending and employments trends.

The trends seen by the Pepperidge Farm and V-8 maker comes as Wall Street and economists wonder what’s next for the U.S. economy after President Donald Trump‘s tariff policy raised recession fears and battered consumer sentiment.

More meals at home could mean people are eating out less, showing Americans tightening their belts. That can spell bad news for gross domestic product, two thirds of which relies on consumer spending. A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of the GDP shrinking.

It can also underscore the souring outlook of everyday Americans on the national economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index last month fell to one of its lowest levels on record.

Campbell’s remarks came after the soup maker beat Wall Street expectations in its fiscal third quarter. The Goldfish and Rao’s parent earned 73 cents per share, excluding one-time items, on $2.48 billion in revenue, while analysts polled by FactSet anticipated 65 cents and $2.43 billion, respectively.

Shares added 0.8% before the bell on Monday. The stock has tumbled more than 18% in 2025.

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