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Consumer spending rebounded in February, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor

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1 year ago

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People shop at the Macy’s store on Herald Square on January 19, 2024 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Consumer spending bounced back in February from a January dip, with a little help from leap day. But sales still registered good gains even after correcting for that extra spending day.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, derived from actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, rose 1.06% in February, when excluding autos and gas. It increased 0.95% when taking out restaurants as well, the Retail Monitor’s core measure.

Removing the effect of the leap day, sales rose 0.4%, or less than half of the unadjusted gain, but they were still up from the 0.2% decline in January. Taking out restaurants, the Retail Monitor adjusted for the leap day was up 0.3%, compared with a 0.04% gain in January.

“While the future direction of interest rates and inflation remains uncertain, it’s clear that a strong job market and increases in real wages are continuing to support spending,” said Matt Shay, president of the National Retail Federation.

Looking at individual sectors, not adjusted for the leap day:

  • Online and other nonstore sales were up 0.8% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 18.08% year over year.
  • Sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores were up 2.29% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 13.67% year over year.
  • Health and personal-care stores were up 0.96% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 11.18% year over year.
  • Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.51% month over month and up 8.05% year over year unadjusted.

The sector data was also impacted by the leap day and the index overall could differ more sharply this month from the Census Bureau retail data than it normally does.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity and is not revised monthly or annually.

Economists are looking for a 0.8% gain in the Census retail report on Thursday, a complete reversal of the 0.8% decline in January. So both that forecast, if accurate, and the CNBC/NRF Monitor for February, suggest January was not the beginning of the long-awaited consumer spending slowdown.

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People cooking at home at highest level since Covid, Campbell’s says

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A worker arranges cans of Campbell’s soup on a supermarket shelf in San Rafael, California.

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Campbell’s has seen customers prepare their own meals at the highest rate in about half a decade, offering the latest sign of everyday people tightening their wallets amid economic concerns.

“Consumers are cooking at home at the highest levels since early 2020,” Campbell’s CEO Mick Beekhuizen said Monday, adding that consumption has increased among all income brackets in the meals and beverages category.

Beekhuizen drew parallels between today and the time when Americans were facing the early stages of what would become a global pandemic. It was a period of broad economic uncertainty as the Covid virus affected every aspect of everyday life and caused massive shakeups in spending and employments trends.

The trends seen by the Pepperidge Farm and V-8 maker comes as Wall Street and economists wonder what’s next for the U.S. economy after President Donald Trump‘s tariff policy raised recession fears and battered consumer sentiment.

More meals at home could mean people are eating out less, showing Americans tightening their belts. That can spell bad news for gross domestic product, two thirds of which relies on consumer spending. A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of the GDP shrinking.

It can also underscore the souring outlook of everyday Americans on the national economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index last month fell to one of its lowest levels on record.

Campbell’s remarks came after the soup maker beat Wall Street expectations in its fiscal third quarter. The Goldfish and Rao’s parent earned 73 cents per share, excluding one-time items, on $2.48 billion in revenue, while analysts polled by FactSet anticipated 65 cents and $2.43 billion, respectively.

Shares added 0.8% before the bell on Monday. The stock has tumbled more than 18% in 2025.

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