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Consumer spending rebounded in February, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor

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People shop at the Macy’s store on Herald Square on January 19, 2024 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Consumer spending bounced back in February from a January dip, with a little help from leap day. But sales still registered good gains even after correcting for that extra spending day.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, derived from actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, rose 1.06% in February, when excluding autos and gas. It increased 0.95% when taking out restaurants as well, the Retail Monitor’s core measure.

Removing the effect of the leap day, sales rose 0.4%, or less than half of the unadjusted gain, but they were still up from the 0.2% decline in January. Taking out restaurants, the Retail Monitor adjusted for the leap day was up 0.3%, compared with a 0.04% gain in January.

“While the future direction of interest rates and inflation remains uncertain, it’s clear that a strong job market and increases in real wages are continuing to support spending,” said Matt Shay, president of the National Retail Federation.

Looking at individual sectors, not adjusted for the leap day:

  • Online and other nonstore sales were up 0.8% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 18.08% year over year.
  • Sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores were up 2.29% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 13.67% year over year.
  • Health and personal-care stores were up 0.96% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 11.18% year over year.
  • Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.51% month over month and up 8.05% year over year unadjusted.

The sector data was also impacted by the leap day and the index overall could differ more sharply this month from the Census Bureau retail data than it normally does.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity and is not revised monthly or annually.

Economists are looking for a 0.8% gain in the Census retail report on Thursday, a complete reversal of the 0.8% decline in January. So both that forecast, if accurate, and the CNBC/NRF Monitor for February, suggest January was not the beginning of the long-awaited consumer spending slowdown.

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Economics

Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

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Shoppers walk near a Nordstrom store at the Westfield UTC shopping center on Jan. 31, 2025 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.

The index measures respondents’ outlook for income, business and job prospects.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The survey comes amid worries over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs against U.S. imports, which has coincided with a volatile stock market and other surveys showing waning sentiment.

The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income groups.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late-2023.

The view on the labor market also weakened, with those expecting more jobs to be available falling to 16.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. The respective February readings were 18.8% and 26.6%.

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