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Fed Vice Chair Jefferson advocates remaining cautious on rates as policy drama unfolds

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Philip Jefferson speaks during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Feb. 3, 2022. The U.S. Senate on Wednesday voted overwhelmingly to confirm Philip Jefferson, an economist and Davidson College’s dean of faculty, to the Federal Reserve Board.

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EASTON, Pa. — Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Tuesday the central bank should be careful how it adjusts interest rates amid an uncertain policy environment.

In broad terms, the Fed governor said he sees the economy strong with inflation easing back on a “bumpy” road to the central bank’s 2% goal and a labor market in a “solid position.”

However, Jefferson echoed recent statements from other officials that it’s in the Fed’s best interest to move slowly as it evaluates evolving conditions.

“As long as the economy and labor market remain strong, I see it as appropriate for the [Federal Open Market] Committee to be cautious in making further adjustments,” he said in remarks for a speech at Lafayette College.

“Over the medium term, I continue to see a gradual reduction in the level of monetary policy restraint placed on the economy as we move toward a more neutral stance as the most likely outcome,” Jefferson added. “That said, I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance.”

The remarks come less than a week after the FOMC voted to hold its policy rate steady in a range between 4.25% to 4.5%, a decision with which Jefferson concurred. At the previous three meetings, the committee had cut the federal funds rate by a total 1 percentage point after hiking it rapidly to combat a surge in inflation.

Fed officials have refrained from commenting directly on policy clashes in Washington, but have expressed a level of trepidation about trying to prejudge events.

Principal among the current level of uncertainty is the impact that tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its primary trading partners will have. President Donald Trump has paused on duties against products from Canada and Mexico, but is locked in a tense battle with China.

“There is always a great deal of uncertainty around any economic forecast, and currently we face additional uncertainties about the exact shape of government policies, as well as their economic implications,” Jefferson said.

Over the past year, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — has edged lower. The rate increased 2.6% in December on a year-over-year basis, well off its peak but still ahead of the central bank’s 2% goal.

Jefferson said he expects inflation to continue to move lower, but hedged his outlook.

“In the current environment, I attach a high degree of uncertainty to my projections,” he said.

The policymaker added that he “could envision a range of scenarios for future policy” where “we can maintain policy restraint for longer” if inflation stays elevated, or one where the Fed could ease more if the labor market weakens.

Economics

Elon Musk’s failure in government

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WHEN DONALD TRUMP announced last November that Elon Musk would be heading a government-efficiency initiative, many of his fellow magnates were delighted. The idea, wrote Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, a venture-capital firm, was “one of the greatest things I’ve ever read.” Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge-fund manager, wrote his own three-step guide to how DOGE, as it became known, could influence government policy. Even Bernie Sanders, a left-wing senator, tweeted hedged support, saying that Mr Musk was “right”, pointing to waste and fraud in the defence budget.

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Economics

The fantastical world of Republican economic thinking

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The elites of the American right cannot reconcile the inconsistencies in their policy platform

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Economics

People cooking at home at highest level since Covid, Campbell’s says

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A worker arranges cans of Campbell’s soup on a supermarket shelf in San Rafael, California.

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Campbell’s has seen customers prepare their own meals at the highest rate in about half a decade, offering the latest sign of everyday people tightening their wallets amid economic concerns.

“Consumers are cooking at home at the highest levels since early 2020,” Campbell’s CEO Mick Beekhuizen said Monday, adding that consumption has increased among all income brackets in the meals and beverages category.

Beekhuizen drew parallels between today and the time when Americans were facing the early stages of what would become a global pandemic. It was a period of broad economic uncertainty as the Covid virus affected every aspect of everyday life and caused massive shakeups in spending and employments trends.

The trends seen by the Pepperidge Farm and V-8 maker comes as Wall Street and economists wonder what’s next for the U.S. economy after President Donald Trump‘s tariff policy raised recession fears and battered consumer sentiment.

More meals at home could mean people are eating out less, showing Americans tightening their belts. That can spell bad news for gross domestic product, two thirds of which relies on consumer spending. A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of the GDP shrinking.

It can also underscore the souring outlook of everyday Americans on the national economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index last month fell to one of its lowest levels on record.

Campbell’s remarks came after the soup maker beat Wall Street expectations in its fiscal third quarter. The Goldfish and Rao’s parent earned 73 cents per share, excluding one-time items, on $2.48 billion in revenue, while analysts polled by FactSet anticipated 65 cents and $2.43 billion, respectively.

Shares added 0.8% before the bell on Monday. The stock has tumbled more than 18% in 2025.

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