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How a trade war could impact the price of clothing

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Women shop for clothing from a Gap outlet store in Los Angeles, California on April 10, 2025. 

Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

Few consumer products are immune from the impact of new tariffs on goods imported into the United States, but apparel may be among the hardest hit.

A trade war could significantly raise the price of clothing for consumers. Since a large portion of U.S. clothing and shoes are imported, tariffs on those goods would increase the cost for both the importers and, ultimately, the consumer, experts say.

“The 2025 tariffs disproportionately affect clothing and textiles, with consumers facing 64% higher apparel prices in the short-run,” according to forecasts by the Yale University Budget Lab. “Apparel prices will stay 27% higher in the long-run.”

For now, the Trump Administration has opted for a universal tariff rate of 10%. Earlier this month, the White House imposed 145% tariffs on products from China. President Donald Trump recently granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronics imported largely from China.

“We are concerned about the escalating trade war with China. Ultimately no one wins,” said Julia Hughes president of the United States Fashion Industry Association.

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“This policy continues to subject U.S. imports of our industry’s largest trading partner to an unsustainable tax,” Steve Lamar, the American Apparel & Footwear Association’s president and CEO, said in a prepared statement. 

Tariffs, particularly on clothing and materials, which are not made at scale in the U.S., will lead to higher prices for consumers and will only fuel inflation, according to the American Apparel & Footwear Association.

The U.S. receives 97% percent of clothing and shoes from other countries, but primarily China and Vietnam, a 2024 report by the American Apparel & Footwear Association found.

Tariffs ‘will be passed along to the consumer’

“Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer. Tariffs will not be paid by foreign countries or suppliers,” the National Retail Federation’s executive vice president of government relations David French said in a statement.

As part of the new high tariffs on China, Trump also revoked a popular tax loophole known as de minimis. The exemption allowed many e-commerce companies to send goods worth less than $800 into the U.S. duty-free. The loophole also allowed American shoppers to buy low-cost goods directly from retailers in China and Hong Kong.

Some popular clothing brands, like Shein and Temu imported from China, could face an immediate impact and will likely funnel those extra costs to customers in the way of higher prices, which would hit low- and middle-class Americans particularly hard.

How consumers plan to cushion the blow

Three-quarters of consumers said they’re already engaging in “trade-down” behavior when purchasing clothing and footwear, according to recent research by Empower.

In the years since high inflation made clothing more expensive, a shift was already starting.

Shoppers downgraded to more affordable second-hand merchandise and embraced buying “dupes” — short for duplicates.

“If you can’t afford Louis Vuitton, you are going to buy Coach. If you can’t afford Coach, you are going to buy the knock off,” said Shawn Grain Carter, an associate professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology, part of the State University of New York.

Historically, trade restrictions drive up the cost of authentic goods, creating the perfect conditions for counterfeiters to flood the market with cheaper, harder-to-detect fakes, according to Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder and CEO of Entrupy, an authentication service.

With Trump’s recent executive order eliminating duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value imports, the flow of counterfeit goods will also be more expensive and logistically challenging, Srinivasan explained.

However, “counterfeiters are incredibly agile,” he said. “When one route is blocked, they’ll adapt, seeking alternative distribution channels to continue flooding the market with fakes.”

Alternatively, “there might be a little more of a lean into the second-hand market because it just seems more affordable,” Srinivasan said. 

Value, quality and style and not obsolesce of clothing wins, says Mickey Drexler

Faced with higher costs, 67% of consumers plan to change their shopping habits, according to another recent report by Bid-on-Equipment. Among the top strategies, 46% say they will shop at thrift or second-hand stores. Other ways to save include comparison shopping or buying fewer imported goods. The survey polled more than 1,000 adults in January.

In another survey by shopping app Smarty, 50% of respondents said they’re more likely to consider secondhand goods or local alternatives because of tariff-induced price hikes.

“Tariffs are already prompting my customers to even more actively seek alternatives when it comes to luxury designer goods,” said Christos Garkinos, the CEO and founder of online reseller Covet By Christos.

“On the one hand, customers who are looking to make some extra money in this volatile economy are considering selling off parts of their designer collections,” Garkinos said.

“On the flip side, so many of my existing customers are doubling down on resale,” he said, “because they know that there is no tariff to pay and they can still get their hands on luxury goods without paying that extra premium right now.”

The U.S. resale market is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating it will continue to expand rapidly over the next few years. This growth is being driven by factors like rising consumer preference for second-hand options, especially among younger generations, and the increasing adoption of online resale platforms, experts say.

Re-commerce — which encompasses the buying and selling of pre-owned, refurbished or secondhand goods  — is projected to increase 55%, reaching $291.6 billion by 2029. That would outpace the overall retail market, with resale potentially accounting for 8% of total retail by 2029, according to a 2024 report by OfferUp, an online marketplace for buying and selling new and used items.

Still, there aren’t enough second-hand products to satisfy consumer demand, Hughes said. “The quantities aren’t there.”

For now, the apparel industry must wait and see what will happen with potential trade agreements going forward, just as back-to-school inventory — one of the most important shopping seasons of the year — is set to start shipping, Hughes said.

“The chaos is still rippling through,” she added. “This is a real time of uncertainty.”

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Personal Finance

Social Security changes to monitor under new agency leadership

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A Social Security Administration office in Washington, D.C., on March 26. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reportedly aiming to reform and downsize the agency.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

The Social Security Administration is under new leadership, after financial services executive Frank Bisignano was sworn in as commissioner this week.

Bisignano’s confirmation follows a host of changes at the federal agency during the first 100 days of the Trump administration, many of them through the Department of Government Efficiency.

For the approximate 73 million beneficiaries who rely on monthly Social Security checks, those changes may affect how they receive services from the agency.

From benefit increases for certain pensioners to changing policies on benefit withholdings and customer service, here are some of the biggest shifts of which beneficiaries should take note.

Certain pensioners see benefit increases

President Joe Biden after he signed the Social Security Fairness Act at the White House on Jan. 5 in Washington, D.C. 

Kent Nishimura | Getty Images News | Getty Images

A new law that went into effect in January will provide almost 3 million individuals with increased Social Security benefits.

The Social Security Fairness Act provides higher monthly Social Security checks for individuals who also receive pensions from work that did not include payment of Social Security payroll taxes. It will also provide lump sum retroactive payments starting from January 2024.

Monthly benefit increases may range from “very little” to “over $1,000 more each month,” according to the Social Security Administration, which began those adjustments in February.

The change affects certain workers such as teachers, firefighters and police officers; federal employees under the Civil Service Retirement System; and people who work under foreign social security programs, according to the agency. Those workers had previously seen their benefits reduced or eliminated due to the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset, which have been nixed with the new law.

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In the first 100 days of the Trump administration, SSA has paid more than $14.8 billion in retroactive payments to more than 2.2 million individuals, according to the agency.

The agency has expedited the processing of the benefit changes under President Donald Trump. However, it may take a year or more to issue payments for some cases that cannot be processed through automation, according to the agency.

New default withholding rate for repaying benefits

Fertnig | E+ | Getty Images

Social Security beneficiaries are sometimes overpaid benefits due to errors.

When that happens, the Social Security Administration requires the extra money to be repaid to the agency.

Because it can take months or years to catch on to those mistakes, beneficiaries can be on the hook to repay big sums. That money may be withheld from benefit checks until the overpayment has been repaid.

The Social Security Administration has made various adjustments to the default withholding rate from benefits.

In response to complaints that a 100% default withholding rate caused financial hardship for affected beneficiaries, the agency under President Joe Biden changed that default withholding rate to 10% of a beneficiary’s monthly benefit or $10, whichever was greater.

Under Trump, SSA has had a tougher stance on overpayments. In March, the agency announced it planned to reinstate the default withholding rate to 100% of an individual’s monthly benefit. The change was estimated to generate about $7 billion in overpayment recoveries in the next decade.

However, the agency recently issued an emergency message notifying its employees that new overpayment notices sent on or after April 25 will have a 50% default withholding rate. That applies to retirement, survivors and disability insurance benefits. The withholding rate for Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, benefits is still 10%.

Some experts worry a 50% default withholding rate is still too high.

“Losing 50% [of benefits] for a lot of people could put them into immediate economic hardship,” Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans, recently told CNBC.com.

Student loan debtors may have benefits garnished

Student loan default collection restarting

Overpayment of Social Security is not the only reason benefits may be withheld.

On May 5, the government resumed collections efforts on federal student loans in default. Now, the Education Department may use the Treasury Department Offset Program to withhold benefits for defaulted loans, as well as other payments like tax refunds and salaries. Some of those garnishments could start as soon as June, according to the Education Department.

The Social Security Administration may also withhold current and future Social Security checks for child support, alimony or restitution payments, according to the agency.

The IRS may take a portion of Social Security payments until it recoups the full balance of overdue federal tax debts.

Beneficiaries face long wait times for service

The Social Security Office in Alhambra, California.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Individuals who call SSA’s 800 phone number face long hold times before they speak to someone at the agency.

To make an in-person appointment, they must either call that number or visit the website, which has experienced glitches.

Those difficulties are “neither new nor unique to the current administration,” Republican House Ways and Means Committee members recently wrote to Bisignano. Meanwhile, Democrats worry those difficulties could signal bigger problems ahead.

In a bid to reduce wait times, the agency has encouraged individuals to use its web site when possible.

The agency is in the process of modernizing its telecommunications platform, which is expected to allow it to better manage calls and provide more self-service options. The rollout, which is expected to be completed by the end of this summer, has helped improve answer rates and average speed of answer, based on early results, according to the Social Security Administration.

What you need to know about Social Security

As Bisignano takes the helm, advocacy groups are urging for the agency to make the needs of its beneficiaries a priority.

“The vast majority of his current customer base cannot transact financial business through anything other than face to face contact in an office or on the telephone, and they have to be prepared to accommodate that,” said Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

Some may be required to make in-person office visits

A Social Security Administration (SSA) office in Washington, DC, March 26, 2025. 

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

The Trump administration tasked the Department of Government Efficiency with curbing “waste, fraud and abuse” at federal agencies.

Under DOGE, the Social Security Administration sought to make it so services that could previously be handled over the phone would need to be done in person at an agency office to prevent fraud.

However, the agency has since scaled back that policy to allow for claims for retirement, survivor and spousal and children’s benefits to still be permitted over the phone. Individuals making other claims, including Social Security disability insurance, Medicare and Supplemental Security Income, can also still use the agency’s 800 number.

Notably, changes to direct deposit information will mostly still need to be handled either online or in person.

Consequently, almost 2 million more elderly and disabled individuals may need to visit Social Security offices in person annually, the Social Security Administration has revealed.

The online process may be difficult for some individuals because it requires multi-factor, multi-step online verification and a one-time PIN code, CBPP notes. Previous estimates have found that about 42% of older adults may lack access to reliable broadband service, according to the AARP.

In some cases, people may be able to change their direct deposit information over the phone if they are also able to verify their identity online, according to Freese.

The agency has “left this very convoluted system in place to use the telephone in order to change your banking information, but for the vast majority of seniors and members of the disability community, they’re never going to be able to use it,” Freese said.

Direct deposit fraud represents less than one-hundredth of one percent of benefits that are misdirected, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Digital Social Security cards available this summer

Douglas Sacha | Getty Images

The Social Security Administration plans to roll out a new secure digital form of identification as an alternative to traditional paper cards beginning early this summer.

The new digital feature will allow individuals who have either forgotten their Social Security number or who have lost their Social Security cards to access their personal number online through the agency’s My Social Security website.

They will also be able to access their Social Security numbers through digital devices and display them as identification for “reasons other than handling Social Security matters,” according to the agency.

With the new effort, the agency aims to reduce the inconveniences caused by lost or stolen cards, which currently requires individuals to apply for replacements either online or in person.

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Personal Finance

The key issues and who stands to benefit

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces the NFL draft will be held in Washington, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 5, 2025.

Leah Millis | Reuters

As negotiations ramp up for President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda, there are key issues to watch, according to policy experts.   

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxes, released a preliminary partial text of its portion of the bill on Friday evening. However, the bill could change significantly before the final vote. The full committee will debate and advance this legislation on Tuesday.

With control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republican lawmakers can pass Trump’s package without Democratic support via a process known as “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster with a simple majority vote.

But reconciliation involves multiple steps, and the proposals must fit within a limited budget framework. That could be tricky given competing priorities, experts say. 

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“The narrow [Republican] majority in the House is going to make that process very difficult” because a handful of votes can block the bill, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

Plus, some lawmakers want a “more fiscally responsible package,” which could impact individual provisions, according to Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center.

As negotiations continue, here are some key tax proposals that could impact millions of Americans.

Extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts

The preliminary House Ways and Means text includes some temporary and permanent enhancements beyond the TCJA. These include boosts to the standard deduction, child tax credit, tax bracket inflation adjustments, the estate tax exemption and pass-through business deduction, among others.

Child tax credit expansion

Some lawmakers are also pushing for bigger tax breaks than what’s currently offered via the TCJA provisions.

“The child tax credit is one that we’re watching very closely,” Akabas said. “There’s a lot of bipartisan agreement on preserving and hopefully expanding that.”  

TCJA temporarily increased the maximum child tax credit to $2,000 from $1,000 per child under age 17, and boosted eligibility. These changes are scheduled to sunset after 2025.

The House in February 2024 passed a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit, which would have boosted access and refundability. The bill didn’t clear the Senate, but Republicans expressed interest in revisiting the issue.  

The early House Ways and Means text proposes expanding the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child for four years starting in 2025.

‘SALT’ deduction relief

Another TCJA provision — the $10,000 limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as “SALT” — was added to the 2017 legislation to help fund other tax breaks. That provision will also expire after 2025.

Before the change, filers who itemized tax breaks could claim an unlimited deduction for SALT. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners. 

Repealing the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. In a policy reversal, Trump has also voiced support for a more generous SALT deduction. 

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle-income,” since lower earners typically don’t itemize tax deductions, Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, previously told CNBC.

The SALT deduction was absent from the preliminary House Ways and Means text. But Congressional negotiations are ongoing.

What the IRS layoffs mean for your taxes this tax season

Trump’s campaign ideas

On top of TCJA extensions, Trump has also recently renewed calls for additional tax breaks he pitched on the campaign trail, including no tax on tips, tax-free overtime pay and tax-exempt Social Security benefits. These ideas were not yet included in the early House Ways and Means text.  

However, there are lingering questions about the specifics of these provisions, including possible guardrails to prevent abuse, experts say.

For example, you could see a questionable “reclassification of income” to qualify for no tax on tips or overtime pay, said Muresianu. “But there are ways you could mitigate the damage.”

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Personal Finance

How top tax rates compare, as Trump eyes hike for wealthy

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U.S. President Donald Trump points as he attends the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon hosted by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 12, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As Republicans wrestle with funding their massive spending and tax package, President Donald Trump is eyeing a possible tax hike for the highest earners.

The idea, which lacks Republican support, could return the top federal income tax rate to 2017 levels for some of the wealthiest Americans.  

In a phone call Thursday, NBC reported, Trump pressed House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to raise the top income tax rate on the wealthiest Americans and close the so-called carried interest loophole. The proposal would revert the 37% rate to 39.6% for individuals making $2.5 million or more per year, to help preserve Medicaid and tax cuts for everyday Americans.

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Trump on Friday expressed openness to the tax hike on the wealthiest Americans in a Truth Social post, noting he would “graciously accept” the tax increase to “help the lower and middle income workers.”

“Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!” he wrote.

Enacted by Trump, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017 created sweeping tax breaks for individuals and businesses. Most will sunset after 2025 without an extension from Congress.

The TCJA temporarily dropped the highest income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%. For 2025, the 37% rate kicks in for single filers once taxable income exceeds $626,350.    

How Trump’s idea compares to historic rates

If signed into law, a top 39.6% income tax rate would return wealthy taxpayers to pre-TCJA levels from 2013 to 2017. Before that, the top rate was 35% during most of the early 2000s, according to data collected by the Tax Policy Center. The highest top rate was 94% from 1944-1945.

However, this data doesn’t reflect how much income was subject to top rates or the value of standard and itemized deductions during these periods, the organization noted.

Trump’s tax package faces a ‘math issue’

Push for higher taxes on the wealthy: Inside President Trump's tax agenda

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