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How holding rates steady affects you

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Fed isn't losing control of inflation or inflation expectations, says Roth Capital's Michael Darda

On the heels of a stronger-than-expected jobs report and elevated inflation readings, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting this week — despite pressure from President Donald Trump.

“Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!” Trump said in a Truth Social post Friday.

As an independent agency, the central bank has always operated autonomously from the White House. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that monetary policy decisions are completely separate from politics. At the same time, the president’s new trade policies are a barrier to cutting rates, in part because economists expect the new tariffs could lead to a widespread rise in prices that complicate inflation forecasts.

To be sure, many Americans are getting squeezed by high prices and high borrowing costs, while the potential inflation impacts from a costly trade war weigh heavily on household budgets.

“Consumers are always the ones who pay the price,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.

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The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates consumers see every day.

“Uncertainty rules amid a trade war and the ever-changing landscape of tariffs,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “But with the hard data on consumer spending and employment still hanging in there, the Fed will remain firmly planted on the sidelines.”

Markets now widely expect the Fed to wait to cut rates until July, with two or three more reductions to follow by the end of the year.

Once the federal funds rate comes down, borrowing costs could decrease across a variety of consumer debt, such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgage rates, making it easier to access cheaper money. 

Here’s a breakdown of how it works.

Credit cards

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

For the most part, the average annual percentage rate has hovered just over 20% this year, according to Bankrate, not far from last year’s all-time high

The Fed holding steady isn’t the only thing keeping credit card rates high. “Banks are nervous about all of the uncertainty in the economy and what it means for consumers,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“When that happens, banks try to minimize risk as much as possible, and one of the ways they do that is to raise interest rates on credit cards,” he said.

Credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Total credit card debt and average balances are also at record highs.

Mortgages

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, concerns about the direction of the economic policy and Trump’s tariff plans have been a drag on rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.81%, down from 7.04% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate. But for potential home buyers, that’s not enough of a decline to give the housing market a boost.

“Unfortunately for those shopping for a home this summer, rates are likely to stay in or around that range in the near future,” Schulz said.

Auto loans

Although auto loan rates have seen little change, car payments have gone up because prices are rising, while Trump’s 25% tariffs of imported vehicles adds more pressure.

Currently, the average rate on a five-year new car loan is 7.33%, down from 7.53% in January, according to Bankrate.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.

Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note and aren’t likely to change much. Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24.

Although borrowers with existing federal student debt balances won’t see their rates change, many are now facing other headwinds and fewer federal loan forgiveness options.

Savings

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts still offer above-average returns and currently pay as much as 4.5%, according to Bankrate. While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate — so holding that rate unchanged has kept savings rates elevated, for now.

“For consumers, oftentimes the best way to protect your finances in times of uncertainty is to double-down on boosting emergency savings and eliminating high interest rate debt,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “This builds a buffer in the event of an income disruption or unanticipated expenses and insulates you from costly borrowing.”

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Personal Finance

Where seniors face the longest drives

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A Social Security Administration office in Washington, D.C., March 26, 2025.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

A new Social Security Administration policy will require nearly 2 million additional beneficiaries to visit the agency’s offices each year to change their direct deposit information, according to agency estimates.

That’s often not a quick trip: Nearly one-quarter of seniors live more than an hour away from their local Social Security field office, according to a new analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Meanwhile, half of seniors need to drive for at least 33 minutes without traffic to get to their Social Security office.

The policy change will lead to more than 1 million hours of travel per year, according to the nonpartisan policy and research institute.

Why more people need to visit Social Security offices

The Social Security Administration said the new direct deposit requirements would curb fraud, which it said it’s been working to root out in coordination with the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

Since 2023, the agency has experienced a “marked increase” in allegations of direct deposit fraud, a Social Security Administration official said via email.

In March, SSA implemented enhanced fraud protection for direct deposit changes. Between March 29 and April 26, the enhanced fraud protection flagged more than 20,000 Social Security numbers where phone direct deposit requests failed security measures that check for multiple fraud indicators.

Of the direct deposit transactions flagged, 61% to 72% of individuals never resubmitted their requests, a “strong indicator” that many of those attempts may not have been legitimate, according to the SSA official.

The agency estimates $19.9 million in losses were avoided as a result of the enhanced safety measures.

However, advocates say the change is an overreaction, given the scale of such fraud. The Social Security Administration has said about 40% of direct deposit fraud comes from phone calls attempting to change direct deposit information.

In early 2024, anti-fraud officials at the agency told The New York Times that about 2,000 beneficiaries had their direct deposits redirected over the prior year. By those estimates, that would mean just 800 of those people experienced direct deposit fraud by phone, according to Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Yet the agency is now requiring about 2 million elderly and disabled individuals to visit its offices to prevent such fraud, she said.

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To help ensure benefit payments are not misdirected, the Social Security Administration has tightened beneficiaries’ ability to change their bank information over the phone.

As of April 28, individuals who want to change their direct deposit information will need to log into or create a personal My Social Security online account and obtain a one-time code before they call the agency’s 800 number.

Individuals who cannot use online or automatic enrollment services will need to visit a local field office to verify their identity in person. While the agency encourages those individuals to make an appointment, it is also possible to walk in for direct deposit changes.

Individuals who want to change their direct deposit information may also use automatic enrollment services through their bank. To do so, individuals need to contact their bank directly. Not all financial institutions participate in this process, according to SSA.

What you need to know about Social Security

Because many seniors or disabled individuals do not have internet service, computers or smart phones — or if they do, may not know how to use those resources — many will likely have to make an in-person visit to their local Social Security office.

About 6 million seniors don’t drive, while almost 8 million older Americans have a medical condition or disability that makes it difficult for them to travel, according to CBPP research.

Where seniors may face longest drive times

In-person appointments may be burdensome for beneficiaries who face long travel times to get to their nearest Social Security office, according to the CBPP analysis.

In 31 states, more than 25% of seniors face travel times of more than an hour to get to their local field office.

In certain less-populated states, more than 40% of seniors would need to drive more than an hour. Those include Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

In other states, around 25% to 39% of seniors would need to travel over an hour. That includes Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Virginia.

Residents of other states may also face a burden if they do not live near their closest Social Security field office.

Student loan default collection restarting

The analysis is a conservative estimate to help assess how much time it may cost individuals who are affected by the policy, according to Devin O’Connor, senior fellow at the CBPP.

For example, it doesn’t take into account the time spent getting an appointment to visit a Social Security office and the time spent waiting for the appointment, he said.

The CBPP’s analysis was created with information from multiple sources including the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, SSA field office location data, the OpenTimes travel time database and the Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey.

The Social Security Administration has not independently validated the data, the agency said via email in response to a request for comment.

Staffing cuts may add to appointment wait times

Notably, the new direct deposit requirements come as the Social Security Administration has moved to cut its work force by about 7,000 employees, reductions that have led some of the agency’s field offices to be “understaffed,” O’Connor said.

However, while it had been reported that DOGE planned to close Social Security field offices to help curb spending, thus far that has largely not happened, he said. The Social Security Administration has denied it plans to close local field offices.

Individuals who need to visit a Social Security field office will also be confronted by long wait times for appointments. Currently, just 43% of individuals are able to get a benefit appointment within 28 days, Social Security Administration data shows.

The agency’s new policy to limit phone transactions has been scaled back. The agency had proposed limiting the ability to apply for benefits over the phone, but after it received pushback from organizations including the AARP, the agency changed that policy to limit only direct deposit transactions.

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How child tax credit could change as Senate debates Trump’s mega-bill

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Vera Livchak | Moment | Getty Images

As the Senate debates President Donald Trump‘s multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending package, there could be changes to the child tax credit, policy experts say.

If enacted as drafted, the House-approved bill would make permanent the maximum $2,000 credit passed via Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — which could otherwise revert to $1,000 after 2025 without action from Congress.

The highest credit would also rise to $2,500 from 2025 to 2028. After that, the credit’s top value would revert to $2,000 and be indexed for inflation.

But the Senate could have different plans, and negotiations will be “really interesting to watch,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

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The proposed higher child tax credit comes as the U.S. fertility rate hovers near historic lows, which has been a concern for lawmakers, including the Trump administration.

Some research suggests financial incentives, like a bigger child tax credit, could boost U.S. fertility. But other experts say it won’t solve the issue long-term.

As the Senate prepares to debate Trump’s mega-bill, here’s how the child tax credit could change.

Republican child tax credit support

While Democrats have long pushed for a child tax credit expansion, there has also been a more recent bipartisan push for changes.

Vice President JD Vance, who formerly served as Senator of Ohio, floated a higher child tax credit during the campaign in August.   

“I’d love to see a child tax credit that’s $5,000 per child. But you, of course, have to work with Congress to see how possible and viable that is,” he told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., in January also called on the Senate floor for a $5,000 child tax credit. His proposal would apply the credit to payroll taxes and provide advance payments throughout the year. 

“There’s some recognition here that they need do a little more,” Gleckman said.

Credit ‘refundability’ could change

Often, tax credits don’t benefit the lowest earners unless they are “refundable,” meaning filers can still claim without taxes owed. Nonrefundable credits can lock out those consumers because they often don’t have tax liability.

House lawmakers in January 2024 passed a bipartisan child tax credit expansion, which would have improved access and retroactively boosted the refundable portion.

While the bill failed in the Senate in August, Republicans said they would revisit the measure. 

However, the child tax credit in the latest House-approved bill is less generous than the provision passed in 2024, policy experts say.

As written, the House plan provides no additional benefit to 17 million children from low-income families who can’t claim the full $2,000 credit, Margot Crandall-Hollick, principal research associate at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, wrote in May.

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Social Security checks may be smaller for some as garnishments begin

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T-studios2 | E+ | Getty Images

Some Social Security beneficiaries may find their June check is smaller: Starting this month, a share of people’s benefits can be garnished if they’ve defaulted on their student loans.

The Trump administration announced on April 21 that the U.S. Department of Education would resume collection activity on the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio. For nearly half a decade, the government did not go after those who’d fallen behind as part of Covid-era policies.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found.

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Depending on details like their birth date and when they began receiving benefits, their monthly Social Security check may arrive June 3, 11, 18 or 25, according to the Social Security Administration.

Many Social Security recipients rely on those checks for most, if not all, of their income. So people who are facing a smaller federal benefit as a result of garnishment are likely in a panic, said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.

But, Nierman said, “the good news is there are multiple options for borrowers to stop those payment offsets.”

Here’s what you need to know if you’re at risk of a smaller benefit.

How to challenge the garnishment

Federal student borrowers should have received at least a 30-day warning before their Social Security benefit is offset, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

That notice should include information on whom to contact in order to challenge the collection activity, Kantrowitz said. (The alert was likely sent to your last known address, so borrowers should make sure their loan servicer has their correct contact information.)

You may be able to prevent or stop the offset if you can prove a financial hardship or have a pending student loan discharge, Kantrowitz added.

With that in mind, your next step may be pursuing a discharge with your student loan servicer. That’s more likely in circumstances where you have significant health challenges.

“If they are sick or disabled, they can file for a Total & Permanent Disability discharge,” Nierman added.

Borrowers may qualify for a TPD discharge if they suffer from a mental or physical disability that is severe and permanent and prevents them from working. Proof of the disability can come from a doctor, the Social Security Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Get current on your loans

Another route to stop the offset of Social Security benefits is getting current on the loans, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

You can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group and pursue several different avenues to get out of default, including enrolling in an income-driven repayment plan.

“If Social Security is their only income, their payment under those plans would likely be zero,” Mayotte said.

Student loan default collection restarting

Offset is limited to 15%

Social Security recipients can typically see up to 15% of their monthly benefit reduced to pay back their defaulted student debt, but beneficiaries need to be left with at least $750 a month, experts said.

The offset cap is the same “regardless of the type of benefit,” including retirement and disability payments, said Kantrowitz.

The 15% offset is calculated from your total benefit amount before any deductions, such as your Medicare premium, Kantrowitz said.

When Social Security benefit isn’t enough

Many retirees worry about meeting their bills on a fixed income — with or without facing garnishment, experts said.

Utilizing other relief options may help stretch your funds while you work on stopping the offset to your Social Security benefits.

For example, there are a number of charitable organizations that assist seniors with their health-care costs. At Copays.org you can apply for funds to put toward copays, premiums, deductibles and over-the-counter medications.

The National Patient Advocate Foundation has a financial resource directory in which you can search for local aid for everything from dental care to end-of-life services.

Many older people aren’t taking advantage of all the food assistance available to them, experts say. A 2015 study, for instance, found that less than half of eligible seniors participated in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

The extra money can go a long way for retirees on a fixed income, though. The maximum benefit a month for a household of one is $292Grocery storesonline retailers and farmers markets accept the funds.

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