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Small caps could be in for a revival. Here’s why

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on July 26, 2024.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Stocks have endured a brutal stretch, with the Nasdaq now flirting with correction territory since reaching an all-time high on July 10. Even so, a long-awaited rotation out of tech and into small caps — a trend that kicked off a few weeks ago — could still have legs.

While all indexes have taken a beating in recent trading sessions, the Russell 2000 had shown signs of life before the so-called carry trade and worries about the U.S. economy disrupted its best run in years. A small-cap revival would unequivocally be a positive thing.

Indeed, coming after spikes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq powered by a handful of companies perceived to benefit most from the boom in artificial intelligence, the increased market breadth may provide stocks the boost they need to overcome the recent rough patch.

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Two things need to happen for small caps to regain momentum.

The first is that the Federal Reserve will have to slash rates soon. That seems like a sure thing, with futures markets pricing in a probability of 100% of that happening in September. Notably, this level of certainty is largely responsible for sparking the rotation mentioned above in the first place. 

Secondly, we’ll need to see continued economic growth. This is obviously less certain, with July’s labor market data raising some concerns. Yet, the report is not as bad as some have made it out to be. Remember, recessions typically start with layoffs, which is not what the jobs report showed. The issue was more related to demand.

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Therefore, the long-talked-about soft landing may still be possible and rate cuts could deliver a cyclical recovery that benefits small firms. The catch, though, is that these companies experience more volatility than their larger peers.

That’s why a fund tracking small caps is a smart bet. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is the largest one, which, along with the fact that it includes diversified exposure to many small companies, means the ups and downs are more muted.

However, it could be worth taking individual positions in a handful of midcap companies that have underperformed this year but could benefit from a further market rotation. One is Fabrinet (FN), a good way to play the increasing importance of data centers since it’s a leading contract manufacturer of optical components.

Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) and Synaptics (SYNA) are also attractive. Each produces discrete semiconductors, which, unlike integrated circuits, are individual units that perform specific functions. That’s an advantage because they can be more easily customized. 

Finally, Monday.com (MNDY) is also worth considering. It provides small- and medium-size businesses with a cost-effective, multipurpose alternative to expensive, single-use products such as Salesforce and QuickBooks.

One reason to doubt that a prolonged recovery for cyclically sensitive small caps is in the works: the price of copper. The metal usually goes up when cyclicals are poised for an extended rally. Copper prices, however, have fallen steeply since May.

Still, the performance differential between the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 during the spring reached 30 percentage points, a record. Since then, it has only recouped about 6% of that. Moreover, outside of the “Magnificent Seven”, valuations are reasonable. 

Therefore, once all the recent smoke clears and if it becomes apparent that policymakers can pull off a soft landing by cooling inflation and avoiding a recession, rates will come down and the rotation will continue, giving small and midcaps staying power.

— Andrew Graham, founder and managing partner of Jackson Square Capital.

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Nearly half of credit card users are carrying debt, report finds

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Consumers still face inflation challenges despite having spending power: TD Cowen's Oliver Chen

Many Americans are starting 2025 a little worse off than before, at least when it comes to credit card debt.

Almost half of cardholders — 48% — now carry debt from month to month, according to a new report by Bankrate. That’s up from 44% at the start of 2024. Of those carrying balances, 53% have been in debt for at least a year.

Roughly 47% of borrowers said they carry a balance due to an unexpected or emergency expense, most commonly medical bills or car and home repairs. Others cite higher day-to-day expenses and general overspending.

“High inflation and high interest rates have been a nasty combination, and while the worst is behind us, the cumulative effects are significant and will linger,” Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst, said in a statement.

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Overall, Americans’ credit card tab has continually crept higher. 

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,380, up 4.8% year over year, according to the latest credit industry insights report from TransUnion from 2024’s third quarter.

By way of example: With annual percentage rates just over 20%, if you made minimum payments toward the average credit card balance ($6,380), it would take you more than 18 years to pay off the debt and cost you more than $9,344 in interest over that time period, Rossman calculated.

Meanwhile, 36% of consumers added to their debt load over the holiday season, according to a separate report by LendingTree.

Of those with debt, 21% expect it’ll take five months or longer to pay it off, LendingTree found. 

According to another report by WalletHub, 24% of Americans said they will need more than six months to pay off their holiday shopping debt. In that survey, most consumers said inflation caused them to spend more than they initially planned.

“Many people need months to repay holiday bills after overspending,” said John Kiernan, editor at WalletHub.

The best way to pay down debt

The best move for those struggling to pay down credit card debt is to consolidate with a 0% balance transfer card, Bankrate’s Rossman said.

“You could pay about $300 per month and knock out the average credit card balance in 21 months without owing any interest,” he said.

As it stands, 30% of credit cardholders expect to pay off their credit card debt within a year, while 41% expect to pay it off in 1 to 5 years, Bankrate also found. Another 13% expect it will take more than a decade.

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Crypto options in 401(k) plans. Here’s what you need to know

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Crypto in a 401(K) plan

The rally in bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices has generated excitement among some investors, but investment advisors are largely still skeptical that those volatile assets belong in a 401(k) plan or other qualified retirement savings plans.  

Crypto was one of the fastest-growing categories of exchange-traded funds in 2024. The most popular of these funds, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), has ballooned to over $50 billion in total assets.

Although crypto is a small part of the 401(k) plan market, it could grow substantially in 2025.

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he will create a strategic reserve of bitcoin for the U.S. and has nominated Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin and ethereum exchange-traded funds in 2024 was a key change for the industry. 

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The law covering 401(k) plans requires plan sponsors to act as fiduciaries, or in investors’ best interest, by considering the risk of loss and potential gains of investments. The Labor Department has cautioned fiduciaries to exercise “extreme care” before adding crypto options to a 401(k) plan’s core investments. 

Labor Department officials, however, haven’t required fiduciaries to select and monitor all investment options, like those offered through self-directed brokerage windows, according to the Government Accountability Office. Nearly 40% of plans now offer brokerage windows in their 401(k) accounts, according to a 2023 survey by the Plan Sponsor Council of America

Pros and cons of crypto in a 401(k) plan

Fernando Gutierrez-Juarez | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Other experts point to volatility and risk as reasons to be conservative.

“People saving for retirement should probably be even more conservative, because adding crypto to a 401(k) plan would significantly increase the risk that your retirement nest egg could suffer a large loss at the wrong time,” said Amy Arnott, a chartered financial analyst and portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services.

Morningstar found that since September 2015, bitcoin has been nearly five times as volatile as U.S. stocks, and ether nearly 10 times as volatile. That type of volatility adds a large risk to a portfolio even with a small amount invested.

401(k) contribution limits for 2025 

Regardless of what assets are in a 401(k) plan, there are limits to how much you can contribute. For 2025, an employee can contribute up to $23,500 in a 401(k) and other employer-sponsored plans — that’s $500 more than in 2024.

People age 50 or older can make a “catch-up contribution” of up to $7,500. And those age 60 to 63 years old can supersize that, with a catch-up contribution of up to $11,250 for 2025.

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Why your paycheck is slightly bigger

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Why your take-home pay could be higher

If you’re starting 2025 with similar wages to 2024, your take-home pay — or compensation after taxes and benefit deductions — could be a little higher, depending on your withholdings, according to Long.

“When all the tax brackets go up, but your salary stays the same, relatively, that puts you on a lower rung of the ladder,” he said.

The federal income tax brackets show how much you owe on each part of your “taxable income,” which you calculate by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income.

“Even if you make a little more than last year, you could actually pay less in tax in 2025 compared to 2024,” because the standard deduction also increased, Long said. 

For 2025, the standard deduction increases to $30,000 for married couples filing jointly, up from $29,200 in 2024. The tax break is also larger for single filers, who can claim $15,000 in 2025, a bump from $14,600.  

‘It ends up nearly balancing out’

Tax Tip: 401(K) limits for 2025

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