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Top Wall Street execs are getting skeptical on the Fed’s easing path

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A trader works as a screen displays the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on June 12, 2024.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Major Wall Street CEOs see ongoing inflation pressures in the U.S. economy and aren’t convinced that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-easing path with a further two reductions this year.

The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points in September, indicating a turning point in its management of the U.S. economy and in its outlook for inflation. In late-September reports, strategists at J.P. Morgan and Fitch Ratings had predicted two additional interest rate trims by the end of 2024 and expect such reductions to continue into 2025.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at this week’s November meeting at 98%. The current probability of the benchmark rate being taken down by another 25 basis points at the December meeting is 78%.

But some CEOs appear skeptical. Speaking last week at Saudi Arabia’s showcase economic conference, the Future Investment Initiative, they see more inflation on the horizon for the U.S., as the nation’s economic activity and both presidential candidates’ policies involve developments that will potentially be inflationary and stimulatory — such as public spending, the onshoring of manufacturing, and tariffs.

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A group of CEOs speaking at an FII panel moderated by CNBC’s Sara Eisen — which included Wall Street hegemons such as the bosses of Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered and State Street — were asked to raise their hand if they thought two additional rate cuts would be implemented by the Fed this year.

No one put their hand up.

“I think inflation is stickier, honestly, you look at the kind of jobs report and the wage reports in the U.S., I think it’s going to be hard for inflation to come down to the 2% level,” Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton president and CEO, told CNBC in an interview on Wednesday, saying she thinks only one further interest rate cut will take place this year.

“Remember a year ago, we were all here talking about recession? Was there going to be [one]? Nobody’s talking about recession anymore,” she said.

Larry Fink, whose mammoth BlackRock fund oversees over $10 trillion in assets, also sees one rate reduction before the end of 2024.

“I think it’s fair to say we’re going to have at least a 25 [basis-point cut], but, that being said, I do believe we have greater embedded inflation in the world than we’ve ever seen,” Fink said at another FII panel last week.

“We have government and policy that is much more inflationary. Immigration — our policies of onshoring, all of this — no one is asking the question ‘at what cost.’ Historically we were, I would say, a more consumer-driven economy, the cheapest products were the best and the most progressive way of politicking,” he noted. 

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America’s consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, was up 2.4% in September compared to the same period in 2023, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That figure is a tick down from the 2.5% print of August, implying a slowdown in price growth. The September reading was also the smallest annual one since February 2021.

On Friday, new data showed U.S. job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020. Markets largely ignored the bad news, as the nonfarm payrolls report flagged acute climate and labor disruptions.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said inflation will more embedded into the global economy than what market participants are currently predicting, meaning price rises could prove to be stickier than the consensus.

“That doesn’t mean that it’s going to rear its head in a particularly ugly way, but I do think there’s the potential, depending on policy actions that are taken, that it can be more of a headwind than the current market consensus,” he said.

Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick went even further, declaring last Tuesday that the days of easy money and zero-interest rates are firmly in the past.

“The end of financial repression, of zero interest rates and zero inflation, that era is over. Interest rates will be higher, will be challenged around the world. And the end of ‘the end of history’ — geopolitics are back and will be part of the challenge for decades to come,” Pick said, referencing the famous 1992 Francis Fukuyama book, “The End of History and the Last Man,” which argued that conflicts between nations and ideologies were a thing of the past with the ending of the Cold War.

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Speaking on Sara Eisen’s panel Tuesday, Apollo Global CEO Marc Rowan even questioned why the Fed was cutting rates at a time when so much fiscal stimulus had propped up a healthy-looking U.S. economy. He noted the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act and an increase in defense production.

“We’re all talking about, in the U.S., of shades of good. We really are talking about shades of good. And to come back to your point on rates, we massively increased rates, and yet, [the] stock market [is] at a record high, no unemployment, capital market issuance at will, and we’re stimulating the economy?,” he said.

“I’m trying to remember why we’re cutting rates, other than to try and equalize the bottom quartile,” he later added.

Economics

The unemployment rate for Black women fell in December

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A jobseeker holds flyers during the New York Public Library’s annual Bronx Job Fair & Expo at the the Bronx Library Center in the Bronx borough of New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024.

Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The unemployment rate fell for Black women in December, following an alarming increase in the figure for November.

Overall, nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in December, rising 256,000 in the month and topping economists’ prediction for a gain of 155,000, per Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in a sign of a resilient labor market. The data fueled the belief that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates much less than anticipated this year.

For Black women, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% in December. That’s down from 5.9% in November, when the jobless rate rose nearly a percentage point for the cohort. The labor force participation rate, which tracks the population employed or seeking work, inched up to 62.4%.

Among Black workers overall, the unemployment rate also declined in December, slipping to 6.1%. That compares to a rate of 6.4% in November and 5.7% in October.

“There were some concerns about the Black unemployment rate going up,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, referring to November’s uptick. “It’s still significantly higher than for other groups – and that’s still a concern – but nothing in this report jumps out as particularly problematic.”

Black men also made strides, with the jobless rate declining to 5.6% in December from 6% a month earlier. The labor force participation rate for the cohort inched lower to 68.2% last month from 68.7%.

Hispanic men also saw their unemployment rate improve in December, ticking down to 4% from 4.4% as labor force participation improved.

Though the unemployment rate among Hispanic women inched up to 5.3% last month from 5.2%, Gould noted that this shift is within the margin of error. “There’s a lot of volatility with the data,” she said. “I would say that things mostly held steady.”

By comparison, the jobless rate fell to 3.6% in December among white workers overall. That’s down from 3.8%. Among white men, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.3% last month from 3.5%, but the figure held steady at 3.4% for white women.

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Economics

Here’s where the jobs are for December 2024 – in one chart

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December’s job report marked yet another month of stronger-than-expected growth, with gains coming from many different parts of the U.S. economy.

Last month, health care and social assistance jobs saw the largest gains for a third consecutive month, adding 69,500 to payrolls, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Including private education, as some economists do, the health care group’s growth would have risen by 80,000.

Retail trade, which added 43,400 jobs, and leisure and hospitality, up 43,000, scored the second- and third-largest increases last month. Retail trade jobs are in or outside a store, from infomercials to street vendors to vending machines, can sell to consumers or other businesses and involve after-sale services, such as repair and installation, the BLS says.

Government jobs rounded out the top four, posting growth of 33,000 in December.

“Recently, job growth has been very narrowly concentrated in government and health care,” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, told CNBC. “Now, it seems like perhaps it’s broadening out.”

Retail growth, a sharp turnaround from steep losses in November, was bolstered by employment increases across key categories. Notably, clothing, clothing accessories, shoe and jewelry retailers saw an increase of 23,000 positions, while general merchandise retailers and health and personal care retailers grew by 13,000 and 7,000 jobs, respectively, according to BLS data.

That rise is “not just a blip,” Pollak said, adding that it reflects other data that shows an improving backdrop in the sector.

For instance, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ December Texas Retail Outlook Survey showed an acceleration in retail sales activity. The sales index, which measures state retail activity, hit its highest level since late 2021.

“Retailers are more upbeat on 2025 and on the backs of a strong consumer,” Pollak continued. “We’ll probably see more movement in the housing market coming soon.”

In contrast to the strength in retail trade, manufacturing – which saw sizable growth in November – led the declines for December, losing 13,000 jobs.

Additionally, mining and logging, and wholesale trade reversed course last month from November. After seeing slight increases two months ago, mining and logging employment dropped by 3,000, while wholesale trade slumped even more, losing 3,500 positions.

Professional and business services, plus financial activities continued to be bright spots. Those two groups were among the nine in 13 sectors that added jobs last month.

“We’re seeing improvement in total vehicle sales, Americans are making big ticket purchases again, [and] businesses are buying vehicles too,” Pollak said. “These trends have been picking up over the last few months; they were taking a while to filter into the labor market, but this report suggests … perhaps a recovery is starting to take hold.”

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Economics

Jobs report December 2024:

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Job growth was much stronger than expected in December, possibly providing the Federal Reserve less incentive to cut interest rates this year.

Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 for the month, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast from the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, one-tenth of a point below expectations. An alternative measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons moved down to 7.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point and the lowest since June 2024.

Stock market futures were negative after the report’s release while Treasury yields soared.

The report brings to a close a year in which employment grew each month, though inconsistently and at times raising questions over whether a recession loomed. However, the final two months showed a labor market still operating at strength as the Fed contemplates its next moves on monetary policy.

One area that Fed officials have stressed to not be a source of inflation is the labor market, and wages grew slightly less than expected.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month, which was in line with forecasts, but the 12-month gain of 3.9% was slightly below the outlook and indicative that wage inflation at least is becoming less of a factor. The average work week again held steady at 34.3 hours.

Job growth came from the familiar sources of health care (up 46,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000) and government (33,000).

Retail also saw a sizeable gain, up 43,000 after losing 29,000 in November heading into the holiday shopping season. The sector saw payroll growth of 2.2 million for the full year, down nearly one-third from the 3 million gain in 2023.

Revisions for prior months were less substantial than has been the recent trend. The October count saw an upward change of 7,000 to 43,000, while the November number was cut by 15,000 from the prior estimate.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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