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UK inflation, June 2024

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Alexander Spatari | Moment | Getty Images

U.K. inflation held steady at the Bank of England’s 2% target in June, Official National Statistics data showed Wednesday.

The headline reading came in above analyst expectations at 1.9%, according to economists polled by Reuters, and was in line with the previous 2% reading in May.

Sterling rose slightly shortly after the release, trading at $1.2977 by 7:21 a.m. London time.

Services inflation — which is closely watched by the BOE, given its dominance within the U.K. economy and its reflection of domestically-generated price rises — remained at 5.7% in June.

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 3.5%, also on par with the 3.5% recorded in May.

Higher restaurant and hotel prices were the largest contributors to upward pressure, while clothing and footwear costs posted the biggest declines, the ONS said.

Consumers are increasing their spending on leisure activities over the summer months, including on cultural experiences and concerts as high-profile artists such as Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Pink and Sting tour the country.

Bank of England rate cut in focus

Investors have been eyeing a potential August interest rate cut, as headline inflation showed signs of sustained easing. Market expectations of such a trim waned just after the release of the latest print.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said that the stubbornness of services inflation could invite caution from BOE policymakers ahead of their meeting next month.

“It’s really not a done deal for August,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“I think many of the members of the policy committee, and a lot of economists will be looking at that services sector inflation and worrying a bit,” she added.

Jonathan Haskel, a member of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee, last week said that he thought rates should remain on hold due to continued pressures in the labor market.

BOE chief economist Huw Pill added later in the week that the timing of a rate cut remained an “open question” due to “uncomfortable strength” in wage growth.

The BOE’s main interest rate has stayed at a 16-year high of 5.25% since August 2023, back when inflation was 7.9%.

Wednesday’s reading is the first since the U.K.’s general election on July 4, but does not reflect the change in government. The U.K.’s new chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, said in a statement that prices remain too high.

“We face the legacy of fourteen years of chaos and economic irresponsibility. That is why this Government is taking the tough decisions now to fix the foundations so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of Britain better off,” he said Wednesday.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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