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UK inflation, June 2024

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Alexander Spatari | Moment | Getty Images

U.K. inflation held steady at the Bank of England’s 2% target in June, Official National Statistics data showed Wednesday.

The headline reading came in above analyst expectations at 1.9%, according to economists polled by Reuters, and was in line with the previous 2% reading in May.

Sterling rose slightly shortly after the release, trading at $1.2977 by 7:21 a.m. London time.

Services inflation — which is closely watched by the BOE, given its dominance within the U.K. economy and its reflection of domestically-generated price rises — remained at 5.7% in June.

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 3.5%, also on par with the 3.5% recorded in May.

Higher restaurant and hotel prices were the largest contributors to upward pressure, while clothing and footwear costs posted the biggest declines, the ONS said.

Consumers are increasing their spending on leisure activities over the summer months, including on cultural experiences and concerts as high-profile artists such as Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Pink and Sting tour the country.

Bank of England rate cut in focus

Investors have been eyeing a potential August interest rate cut, as headline inflation showed signs of sustained easing. Market expectations of such a trim waned just after the release of the latest print.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said that the stubbornness of services inflation could invite caution from BOE policymakers ahead of their meeting next month.

“It’s really not a done deal for August,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“I think many of the members of the policy committee, and a lot of economists will be looking at that services sector inflation and worrying a bit,” she added.

Jonathan Haskel, a member of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee, last week said that he thought rates should remain on hold due to continued pressures in the labor market.

BOE chief economist Huw Pill added later in the week that the timing of a rate cut remained an “open question” due to “uncomfortable strength” in wage growth.

The BOE’s main interest rate has stayed at a 16-year high of 5.25% since August 2023, back when inflation was 7.9%.

Wednesday’s reading is the first since the U.K.’s general election on July 4, but does not reflect the change in government. The U.K.’s new chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, said in a statement that prices remain too high.

“We face the legacy of fourteen years of chaos and economic irresponsibility. That is why this Government is taking the tough decisions now to fix the foundations so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of Britain better off,” he said Wednesday.

Economics

Elon Musk’s failure in government

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WHEN DONALD TRUMP announced last November that Elon Musk would be heading a government-efficiency initiative, many of his fellow magnates were delighted. The idea, wrote Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, a venture-capital firm, was “one of the greatest things I’ve ever read.” Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge-fund manager, wrote his own three-step guide to how DOGE, as it became known, could influence government policy. Even Bernie Sanders, a left-wing senator, tweeted hedged support, saying that Mr Musk was “right”, pointing to waste and fraud in the defence budget.

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Economics

The fantastical world of Republican economic thinking

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The elites of the American right cannot reconcile the inconsistencies in their policy platform

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Economics

People cooking at home at highest level since Covid, Campbell’s says

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A worker arranges cans of Campbell’s soup on a supermarket shelf in San Rafael, California.

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Campbell’s has seen customers prepare their own meals at the highest rate in about half a decade, offering the latest sign of everyday people tightening their wallets amid economic concerns.

“Consumers are cooking at home at the highest levels since early 2020,” Campbell’s CEO Mick Beekhuizen said Monday, adding that consumption has increased among all income brackets in the meals and beverages category.

Beekhuizen drew parallels between today and the time when Americans were facing the early stages of what would become a global pandemic. It was a period of broad economic uncertainty as the Covid virus affected every aspect of everyday life and caused massive shakeups in spending and employments trends.

The trends seen by the Pepperidge Farm and V-8 maker comes as Wall Street and economists wonder what’s next for the U.S. economy after President Donald Trump‘s tariff policy raised recession fears and battered consumer sentiment.

More meals at home could mean people are eating out less, showing Americans tightening their belts. That can spell bad news for gross domestic product, two thirds of which relies on consumer spending. A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of the GDP shrinking.

It can also underscore the souring outlook of everyday Americans on the national economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index last month fell to one of its lowest levels on record.

Campbell’s remarks came after the soup maker beat Wall Street expectations in its fiscal third quarter. The Goldfish and Rao’s parent earned 73 cents per share, excluding one-time items, on $2.48 billion in revenue, while analysts polled by FactSet anticipated 65 cents and $2.43 billion, respectively.

Shares added 0.8% before the bell on Monday. The stock has tumbled more than 18% in 2025.

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