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UK inflation, June 2024

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Alexander Spatari | Moment | Getty Images

U.K. inflation held steady at the Bank of England’s 2% target in June, Official National Statistics data showed Wednesday.

The headline reading came in above analyst expectations at 1.9%, according to economists polled by Reuters, and was in line with the previous 2% reading in May.

Sterling rose slightly shortly after the release, trading at $1.2977 by 7:21 a.m. London time.

Services inflation — which is closely watched by the BOE, given its dominance within the U.K. economy and its reflection of domestically-generated price rises — remained at 5.7% in June.

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 3.5%, also on par with the 3.5% recorded in May.

Higher restaurant and hotel prices were the largest contributors to upward pressure, while clothing and footwear costs posted the biggest declines, the ONS said.

Consumers are increasing their spending on leisure activities over the summer months, including on cultural experiences and concerts as high-profile artists such as Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Pink and Sting tour the country.

Bank of England rate cut in focus

Investors have been eyeing a potential August interest rate cut, as headline inflation showed signs of sustained easing. Market expectations of such a trim waned just after the release of the latest print.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said that the stubbornness of services inflation could invite caution from BOE policymakers ahead of their meeting next month.

“It’s really not a done deal for August,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“I think many of the members of the policy committee, and a lot of economists will be looking at that services sector inflation and worrying a bit,” she added.

Jonathan Haskel, a member of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee, last week said that he thought rates should remain on hold due to continued pressures in the labor market.

BOE chief economist Huw Pill added later in the week that the timing of a rate cut remained an “open question” due to “uncomfortable strength” in wage growth.

The BOE’s main interest rate has stayed at a 16-year high of 5.25% since August 2023, back when inflation was 7.9%.

Wednesday’s reading is the first since the U.K.’s general election on July 4, but does not reflect the change in government. The U.K.’s new chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, said in a statement that prices remain too high.

“We face the legacy of fourteen years of chaos and economic irresponsibility. That is why this Government is taking the tough decisions now to fix the foundations so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of Britain better off,” he said Wednesday.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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