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The ‘vibecession’ is over as optimism picks up, reports show

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As the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates once again at the end of its two-day meeting this week, Americans’ assessments of the future are improving.

Although a prolonged period of high inflation took a toll on household budgets, consumers are feeling increasingly optimistic about their financial situation, according to a new report by the New York Federal Reserve.

The share of households expecting their financial situation to be better a year from now jumped to 37.6% in November — the highest since February 2020, just before the pandemic’s impact hit. 

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index also rose in November, to the highest level since July 2023.

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In recent months, other studies show Americans have been making progress toward key financial goals, from building up savings to paying down debt.

Nearly half of Americans, or 47%, have paid off debt, while 39% established an emergency fund and 32% have saved for retirement, according to a separate survey by Empower, which polled over 1,000 adults in September.

Roughly 60% of Americans feel confident about reaching their financial goals, Empower also found.

Optimism is high

“Optimism has certainly increased in recent weeks,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Nearly half, or 44%, Americans believe their personal financial situation will get better in 2025, including 14% who said it will get significantly better, according to another Bankrate poll of nearly 2.500 adults in November.

Overall, most people have jobs and are taking home more pay: Average hourly earnings are up 1.3% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%.  

“That’s where the ability to pay down debt comes from,” McBride said.

The ‘vibecession’ is over

The woman behind "the vibesession"

“The economy as a whole has fared far better in 2024 than the consensus expected, and we have seen inflation come down and consumer spending remain strong — not withstanding a bit of a ‘vibecession’ in the beginning of the year,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.

The so-called vibecession was often used to describe a disconnect between how well the economy was doing and how badly people felt about their financial standing. That appears no longer the case, according to House.

Despite earlier expectations of a recession, the U.S. has dodged a downturn, House said.

Meanwhile, “the stock market has charged ahead, people are feeling positive wealth effects and interest rates are coming down,” he said.

Perhaps most importantly, inflation has cooled considerably since hitting a 40-year high in mid-2022. 

“People look most closely at the one economic data point they see every day and that is prices at the grocery store,” House said.

Food costs still rose 0.4% in November and 2.4% year over year, but within that group cereals and bakery products fell 1.1% in November, the single biggest monthly decline in the consumer price index‘s history going back to 1989, according to the BLS.

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Student loan changes likely coming under Trump

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US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters while in flight on Air Force One, en route to Joint Base Andrews on April 6, 2025. 

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

The Trump administration recently announced that it would begin a process of overhauling the country’s $1.6 trillion federal student loan system.

The potential changes could impact how millions of borrowers repay their debt, and who qualifies for loan forgiveness.

“Not only will this rulemaking serve as an opportunity to identify and cut unnecessary red tape, but it will allow key stakeholders to offer suggestions to streamline and improve federal student aid programs,” said Acting Under Secretary James Bergeron in a statement on April 3.

Around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans.

Here are three changes likely to come out of the reforms, experts say.

1. SAVE plan won’t survive

Former President Joe Biden rolled out the SAVE plan in the summer of 2023, describing it as “the most affordable student loan plan ever.” Around 8 million borrowers signed up for the new income-driven repayment, or IDR, plan, the Biden administration said in 2024.

The plan has been in limbo since last year, and in February a U.S. appeals court blocked SAVE in February. The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with the seven Republican-led states that filed a lawsuit against SAVE, arguing that Biden was trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the Supreme Court struck down his sweeping loan cancellation plan in June 2023.

SAVE came with two key provisions that the legal challenges targeted: It had lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.

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The Trump administration is unlikely to continue to defend the plan in court, or to revise it in its regulations, experts say.

“It’s difficult to see any scenario where SAVE will survive,” said Scott Buchanan, executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, a trade group for federal student loan servicers.

For now, many borrowers who signed up for SAVE remain in an interest-free forbearance. That reprieve will likely end soon, forcing people to switch into another plan.

2. End to loan forgiveness under other plans

The Trump administration recently revised some of the U.S. Department of Education’s other income-driven repayment plans for federal student loan borrowers, saying that the changes were necessary to comply with the recent court order over SAVE.

Historically, at least, IDR plans limit borrowers’ monthly payments to a share of their discretionary income and cancel any remaining debt after a certain period, typically 20 years or 25 years. 

The IDR plans now open are: Income-Based Repayment, Pay As You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment, according a recent Education Department press release.

As a result of Trump administration’s revisions, two of those plans — PAYE and ICR — no longer conclude in automatic loan forgiveness after 20 or 25 years, Buchanan said, noting that the courts have questioned the legality of that relief along with SAVE.

The Trump administration, through its changes to the student loan system, is likely to make at least some of those temporary changes permanent, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Still, if a borrower enrolled in ICR or PAYE switches to IBR, their previous payments made under the other plans will count toward loan forgiveness under IBR, as long as they meet the plan’s other requirements, Kantrowitz said. Some borrowers may opt to take that strategy if they have a lower monthly bill under ICR or PAYE than they would on IBR.

3. Narrowed eligibility for PSLF

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March that aims to limit eligibility for the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows many not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

According to Trump’s executive order, borrowers employed by organizations that do work involving “illegal immigration, human smuggling, child trafficking, pervasive damage to public property and disruption of the public order” will “not be eligible for public service loan forgiveness.”

For now, the language in the president’s order was fairly vague. Nor were many details given in the latest announcement about reforming the student loan system, which said the Trump administration is looking for ways to “improve” PSLF.

As a result, it remains unclear exactly which organizations will no longer be considered a qualifying employer under PSLF, experts said.

However, in his first few months in office, Trump’s executive orders have targeted immigrants, transgender and nonbinary people and those who work to increase diversity across the private and public sector. Many nonprofits work in these spaces, providing legal support or doing advocacy and education work.

Changes to PSLF can’t be retroactive, consumer advocates say. That means that if you are currently working for or previously worked for an organization that the Trump administration later excludes from the program, you’ll still get credit for that time, at least up until the changes go into effect.

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Social Security updates anti-fraud measures for benefit claims

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A sign for the U.S. Social Security Administration is seen outside its headquarters in Woodlawn, Md., on Thursday, March 20, 2025.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

New anti-fraud protections are slated to go into effect on Monday at the Social Security Administration.

Ahead of the new policy, an agency spokesperson confirmed on Wednesday that all claim types can still be completed over the telephone, including retirement, survivor and spousal or children’s benefits. Previously, the SSA said those applicants would need to visit an agency office in person for identity proofing.

Individuals making other benefit claims — including for Social Security disability insurance, Medicare and Supplemental Security Income — can also complete their claims entirely over the telephone, which is in line with the agency’s previous guidance, according to the spokesperson.

The Social Security Administration’s update did not mention changes to direct deposit information, which it had previously said would now require in-office visits.

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The agency’s new anti-fraud efforts come as new leadership under the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency is broadly seeking to curb waste, fraud and abuse across federal government agencies.

The SSA is implementing the new anti-fraud procedures, including stricter identity verification, as the agency faces website outages and long wait times on its 800 number, potentially forcing more people to visit offices for assistance.

Social Security experts and advocates have raised concerns that the new policies may make accessing benefits more difficult for vulnerable populations, particularly seniors and people with disabilities.

However, the Social Security Administration’s update is a positive development, said Bill Sweeney, senior vice president of government affairs at AARP. He did add that it would be more ideal if the policy and timeline were reconsidered for better outcomes.

“This seems like a pretty good and encouraging signal that they’re listening to folks, that they’re that they’re open to pivoting and reconsidering how to roll these things out and looking at new ideas for how to implement it,” Sweeney said.

Some beneficiaries will still need to visit offices

What you need to know about Social Security

Online applications may be difficult for many seniors and individuals with disabilities, who may lack access to the necessary resources or know how to navigate the processes, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute.

More than 10% of seniors in 35 states would need to travel more than 45 miles to get to the closest Social Security office, according to a new analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

About 6 million seniors don’t drive, while almost 8 million older Americans have a medical condition or disability that makes it difficult for them to travel, according to the research from Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Many beneficiaries already face obstacles getting through to the Social Security’s phone lines to make an in-person appointment and then need to drive to a field office, said Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Generally, individuals need to call for an appointment, though the agency does urge beneficiaries to first try seeking help online.

‘Fear and concern among many older Americans’

Both experts and advocates take issue with the tight timeline under which the policy changes are being implemented.

“If you’re asking seniors and other SSA customers to do something different, you need to provide enough time for them to understand what it is they need to do,” Romig said.

The AARP sent a letter on Monday to Social Security Administration acting commissioner Lee Dudek urging the agency to “halt changes to phone services,” which will “only exacerbate the ongoing customer service crisis,” wrote Nancy LeaMond, chief advocacy and engagement officer.

Instead, the new policy changes should be done more deliberately, with public input, a clear communication strategy and reasonable timeline, the AARP explained in the letter.

The changes set to go into effect on Monday come as Social Security’s website has recently repeatedly crashed, phone service hold times have increased and in some cases disconnected callers, while field offices also have long in-person waits, LeaMond said in the letter.

“This chaotic environment is fueling fear and concern among many older Americans,” LeaMond wrote.

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How to check eligibility to claim the $1,400 IRS stimulus check

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The federal tax deadline is less than one week away — and there’s still time to collect a pandemic-era IRS stimulus check. It’s your final chance to do so.

If you’re unsure if you received the money, there’s a simple way to check via your IRS account online, tax experts say.

The 2021 stimulus payments were worth up to $1,400 per individual, or $2,800 per married couple. A family of four could receive up to $5,600 with two eligible dependents.

Filers who never received the funds could claim the recovery rebate credit on their 2021 federal return. The last chance for that credit is the 2024 tax deadline on April 15, according to the IRS.

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You’re eligible for the full recovery rebate credit with up to $75,000 in adjusted gross income as a single filer or $150,000 for married couples filing jointly for 2021.

The phaseout begins with earnings above that and eligibility falls to zero once adjusted gross income reaches $80,000 for single filers or $160,000 for married couples filing together.

The ‘best place to look’ for stimulus checks

The IRS in December unveiled plans to send “special payments” to 1 million taxpayers who didn’t claim the 2021 recovery rebate credit on tax returns for that year.  

Most payments should have arrived via direct deposit or mailed paper check by late January 2025, according to the agency. 

You can create a login for your IRS online account to check the status of your economic impact payments, including the 2021 stimulus check.

“That’s the best place to look,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

After logging into your account, you can find stimulus check information in the “tax records” section under the “records and status” toolbar. 

You can also check the “tax records” section to see if you filed a return for 2021. While some taxpayers don’t earn enough to have a filing requirement, you must submit your 2021 return to claim the recovery rebate credit for your stimulus payment, Lucas explained.

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File your 2021 return if ‘there’s any doubt’

In some cases, online accounts show the IRS issued stimulus checks, but filers say they never received the money, said Syracuse University law professor Robert Nassau, director of the school’s low-income tax clinic.

“If there’s any doubt” about your payment, it’s better to file your 2021 return and claim the recovery rebate credit before April 15, he said. Otherwise, you could miss the deadline and lose your chance to collect the money, Nassau added. 

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