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Winning North Carolina and Georgia, Donald Trump seizes the advantage

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Editor’s note (November 6th, 2024): This story was updated after Mr Trump won Georgia.

DONALD TRUMP won the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia as he took a clear advantage in his race for the White House against Kamala Harris. The vice-president’s path to victory narrowed sharply as counts showed her underperforming Joe Biden’s showing of four years ago and giving, as of 12.30am Eastern time, Mr Trump a strong lead in the electoral college.

There were already warning signs for the Harris campaign as the first results poured in. Several hours after their polls closed, four of the other seven swing states seen as vital to the two candidates’ chances for winning the electoral college—Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—were too close to call. Nevada was yet to release early numbers.

The road to an electoral-college victory for Ms Harris has tightened considerably. It would require her to sweep the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the vote count was proceeding more slowly. That now seems increasingly unlikely.

Outside the key battlegrounds, the early picture was no more encouraging for the Harris campaign. Ms Harris eked out a narrow victory in Virginia, which Mr Biden won comfortably in 2020. There, similarly to other suburban jurisdictions in Virginia, Ms Harris’s share of a near-complete vote trailed Mr Biden’s performance four years ago by more than six percentage points. That is a concerning trend if it extends to Pennsylvania and Michigan, where suburban voters are crucial to Ms Harris’s prospects.

In Florida, a former battleground that Mr Biden lost by just over three percentage points last time, Ms Harris was doing even worse, underperforming Mr Biden’s margin by ten percentage points with almost all of the state vote counted. Across all early reporting states, Ms Harris’s performance in counties posting near-complete votes to Mr Biden’s numbers in 2020 showed the vice-president underperforming.

Ms Harris and her allies will have to hope that the picture unfolds differently in Pennsylvania, the most important of the three blue-wall states, which always looked like a crucial state for both her and Mr Trump. Here there were at least a few encouraging signs. With just over a third of the expected vote posted in Montgomery County, a populous suburb of Philadelphia that leans Democratic, Ms Harris led with 68% of the vote, more than five percentage points better than Mr Biden’s performance four years ago. That is the sort of result she will probably need in all of Philadelphia’s blue-tinted-collar counties if she is to hold off Mr Trump’s strength in less populated rural areas.

Michigan’s vote was too incomplete to judge even several hours after its polls closed, and in Wisconsin, which Mr Biden won by just 20,000 votes four years ago, Mr Trump led narrowly with 61% of the vote counted. A similar early picture prevailed in Arizona, a state where pre-election polls had shown Mr Trump held his most significant advantage.

Because the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin remained in play at 11pm EST—and no other state pegged for Ms Harris had fallen to Mr Trump—the election remained in the balance. What seemed clear is that if Ms Harris were to defy the early run of results and squeeze out a victory, it would emerge from the key Rust Belt states and would probably be as close as the razor-thin margins Mr Biden won there in 2020.

Economics

UK GDP February 2025

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People browsing stalls along Portobello Road Market on Feb. 22, 2025, in Notting Hill, West London.

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy grew by a higher-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month in February amid a jump in the services output, official data showed on Friday.

Analysts had projected a monthly gross domestic product hike of 0.1% in February, according to LSEG data.

The Office for National Statistics, which published the provisional figures, said a 0.3% expansion in the services sector had driven the surprise jump in growth. In January, services had recorded a 0.1% monthly rise.

Production output saw a substantial recovery in February, notching 1.5% month-on-month growth compared to the monthly contraction of 0.5% seen in January. Construction output also staged a recovery in February, adding 0.4% on the month after falling 0.3% in January.

The British pound jumped against the dollar after the data release, rising 0.2% against the greenback to trade at $1.2988 by 7:18 a.m. in London.

In January, an early estimate showed the U.K. economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% on a monthly basis. That figure was later revised upward to show that economic growth was flat in January.

The U.K. economy has struggled to gain momentum over the past year. ONS data showed earlier this year that Britain’s GDP expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, after flatlining in the three months prior.

Friday’s figures are released as the U.K. braces for the economic impact of new 10% tariffs on its exports to the United States.

This breaking news story is being updated.

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Economics

Trump’s triple-digit tariff essentially cuts off most trade with China, says economist

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U.S. President Donald Trump attends a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 10, 2025.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

President Donald Trump’s tariff increase on imports from China would basically end most trade between that country and the U.S., according to economist Erica York.

“It depends on how narrowly the tariff is applied or how broadly it’s applied, but generally if you get north of a triple-digit tariff, you are cutting off most trade,” the vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy said on CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Thursday. “There may still be some things without any substitutes that companies just have to foot the bill, but for the most part, that cuts it off.”

Her remarks came amid the market wiping out some of its monster gains seen on Wednesday. The market accelerated declines on Thursday once a White House official confirmed to CNBC that the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods now stands at 145%. That total includes the recent hike to 125% from 84% that Trump announced Wednesday as well as a 20% fentanyl-related duty that the president had previously put into effect.

On Wednesday, Trump announced that he’s temporarily reducing the tariff rates on imports from most countries, except China, to 10% for 90 days. In a Cabinet meeting Thursday, the president declined to rule out the possibility of extending the 90-day tariff reprieve.

Taking into account the China tariffs, the baseline 10% levies still in place and other sector tariffs, Trump has still taken the country into its most protectionist stance in decades, even with the pause.

“It’ll take the average tariff rate still to highs that we haven’t seen since the 1940s, so this is major,” the economist added. “It’s huge cost increases. It’s an economic hit. It’s clearly not setting us on a very good path.”

The Tax Foundation estimates that all of the new Trump tariffs will lead to an increase in federal tax revenues of $171.6 billion for this year. That would make Trump’s tariffs the biggest tax increase since 1993, more than the hikes under both former presidents George H.W. Bush and Barack Obama, the institution revealed.

China has said it won’t flinch if trade dynamics were to escalate into a trade war. Just hours prior to Trump’s tariff pause announcement, China raised its retaliatory levies on U.S. imports to 84% from 34%, which went into effect Thursday.

Even with Trump’s reversal, York stressed that the market isn’t in the clear just yet, saying “it’s not like the threat went away entirely.”

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Economics

Trump’s tariff blitz faces strong legal challenges

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WITH MARKETS gyrating from the tariffs Donald Trump has imposed on around 180 countries, only to pause some of the most punishing ones on April 9th, a conservative organisation has filed a lawsuit challenging an initial round of tariffs the president announced on Chinese imports in February, duties he has since escalated. The New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA), which counts Charles Koch, a right-wing billionaire, among its supporters, argues that the president lacked the authority to impose these levies. With Chinese goods still a prime target, the case retains its salience. Similar lawsuits against other tariffs could yet scuttle the boldest—and most destabilising—move of Mr Trump’s second term.

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