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High company valuations a ‘worry,’ IMF’s capital markets chief says

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Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department Tobias Adrian hold the press briefing of the Global Financial Stability Report at the International Monetary Fund during the 2024 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group in Washington DC, United States on April 16, 2024.

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High corporate valuations could pose a significant risk to financial stability as market optimism becomes untethered from fundamentals, the IMF’s director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department said Tuesday.

Financial markets have been on a tear for much of this year, buoyed by falling inflation and hopes of forthcoming interest rate cuts. But that “optimism” has stretched company valuations to a point where that could become vulnerable to an economic shock, Tobias Adrian said.

“We do worry in some segments where valuations have become quite stretched,” Adrian told CNBC’s Karen Tso Tuesday.

“It was led by tech last year, but at this point, it’s really across the board that we have seen a run up in valuations. There’s always this question, if a negative shock were to hit to what extent do we see a readjustment of pricing,” he said.

Adrian, who was speaking on the side lines of the IMF’s Spring Meeting in Washington, said that credit markets were a particular area of concern.

IMF's Adrian: Do worry that some segments of the market are looking stretched

“I would point to credit markets, where spreads are very tight even though borrower fundamentals are deteriorating, at least in some segments,” he said.

“Even riskier borrowers are able to issue new debt, and that’s at very favourable prices,” he added.

Real estate risks

The IMF’s financing concerns also extend to the property market, and chiefly commercial real estate, which Adrian said had grown “somewhat worrisome.”

Medium and small-sized lenders in particular could be vulnerable to commercial real estate shocks as the sector has come under pressure from a shift to remote work and online shopping, he said.

“There’s really a nexus between exposure of some banks, particularly middle sized and smaller banks, to commercial real estate that also tend to have [a] fragile funding base. Sort of the combination of having a risk exposure to commercial real estate, and this fragile funding that could in some scenarios, reignite some instability,” Adrian said.

IMF's Gourinchas: See Fed cutting three times in 2024

The IMF on Tuesday released its World Economic Outlook, in which it upgraded its global growth forecast slightly, saying the economy had proven “surprisingly resilient.”

It now sees global growth at 3.2% in 2024, however it noted that downside risks remain, including regarding inflation and the increasingly uncertain path forward for interest rates.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the U.S. economy has not seen inflation come back to target, adding to the unlikelihood that it will cut rates in the near-term.

“We do see risks in terms of inflation persistence. Some of that has realized already, but of course we could see further surprises,” Adrian said.

“We’ve [cited] risks as broadly balanced around the globe. But in some countries, there’s a little bit more upside and others a little bit more downside. So certainly, interest rate risk is a key factor we’re looking at,” he added.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

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The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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