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IMF upgrades global growth forecast as economy proves ‘surprisingly resilient’ despite downside risks

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Crowds walk below neon signs on Nanjing Road. The street is the main shopping district of the city and one of the world’s busiest shopping districts.

Nikada | E+ | Getty Images

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast, saying the economy had proven “surprisingly resilient” despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts.

The IMF now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast, and in line with the growth projection for 2023. Growth is then expected to expand at the same pace of 3.2% in 2025.

The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the findings suggest the global economy is heading for a “soft landing,” following a string of economic crises, and that the risks to the outlook were now broadly balanced.

“Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose,” he said in a blog post.

ECB's Makhlouf: Expect a change in rates in June in the absence of shocks

Growth is set to be led by advanced economies, with the U.S. already exceeding its pre-Covid-19 pandemic trend and with the euro zone showing strong signs of recovery. But dimmer prospects in China and other large emerging market economies could weigh on global trade partners, the report said.

China among key downside risks

China, whose economy remains weakened by a downturn in its property market, was cited among a series of potential downside risks facing the global economy. Also included were price spikes prompted by geopolitical concerns, trade tensions, a divergence in disinflation paths among major economies and prolonged high interest rates.

To the upside, looser fiscal policy, falling inflation and advancements in artificial intelligence were cited as potential growth drivers.

Central banks are now being closely watched for a signal on the future path of inflation, with opinion diverging on either side of the Atlantic as to when the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut rates. Some analysts have recently forecast a possible Fed rate hike as stubborn inflation and rising Middle East tensions weigh on economic sentiment.

The IMF said it sees global headline inflation falling from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.

“As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the near-term priority for central banks is to ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, by neither easing policies prematurely nor delaying too long and causing target undershoots,” Gourinchas said.

“At the same time, as central banks take a less restrictive stance, a renewed focus on implementing medium-term fiscal consolidation to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority investments, and to ensure debt sustainability, is in order,” he added.

Despite the rosier outlook of Tuesday, global growth remains low by historic standards, owing in part to weak productivity growth and increasing geopolitical fragmentation. The IMF’s five-year forecast sees global growth at 3.1%, its lowest level in decades.

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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