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Tax Day arrives with Trump-era IRS still taking shape

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The conclusion of the tax filing season Tuesday is about to provide early clues toward resolving a nagging question hanging over the U.S. Treasury: How honest will Americans be about their income when there are suddenly fewer auditors to check them?

The answer has ramifications extending from Treasury debt markets already embroiled in tariff-related turmoil to legislative struggles in Washington over the debt ceiling and a proposed new round of tax cuts. 

A drop in tax collections would likely move forward a debt ceiling deadline from the August to September timeline forecast by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. A sharp falloff also could ratchet up concerns about the fiscal burden of a proposed Republican tax package that matches giant tax cuts with much smaller spending reductions. 

President Donald Trump’s administration this year terminated more than 7,000 Internal Revenue Service employees, mostly involved in tax enforcement, and ultimately may cut the agency’s workforce by 25%.

Analysts have warned that will drive up tax avoidance as well-off taxpayers’ fear of audits eases, though it’s not clear how quickly or how much. 

There are early signs tax collections are holding up this year anyway. Through March, gross U.S. budget receipts for the fiscal year were up 3% to $2.26 trillion, according to the Treasury Department.

“That seems to suggest we may have a robust tax filing season in terms of revenue,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said on Bloomberg Television Friday. 

There are lingering doubts raised by IRS filing statistics. As of April 4, the IRS saw a 0.4% reduction in the number of returns received compared to the 2024 season. The dollar value of refunds was up 5%, higher than the inflation rate. 

“A major area of concern is wealthy taxpayers who don’t file when it’s clear that the IRS audit rate is low,” said John Koskinen, a former IRS commissioner. “The non-filers tend to be concentrated in wealthier individuals so they represent more significant revenue loss on an individual basis.”

Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, said it will probably take longer for receipts to drop because the tax season was already underway when the IRS layoffs began.

“The short-term effects will likely be muted because the tax filing season is nearing an end,” she said. “However, the revenue loss may begin spiking this summer when corporations file their next quarterly taxes, and then rise further by next year’s tax season.” 

Even so, voluntary tax compliance was a high 85% in 2022, according to the IRS. 

“I’m not immediately convinced that there’s going to be some dramatic falloff in compliance right now,” said Pete Sepp, president of the National Taxpayers Union. 

Future years could be very different. The Yale Budget Lab forecast that laying off about 18,000 IRS employees would result in a net revenue loss of roughly $159 billion over ten years. That could rise to as much as $1.6 trillion over 10 years if noncompliance is high, the group said.  

Vanessa Williamson, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the Trump administration cuts are largely undoing efforts by former President Joe Biden to audit those making more than $1 million per year. She said the IRS could return to its footing in the 2010s when enforcement was lax and audits of those individuals dropped by 70%.

“It could easily become a $100-billion-a-year problem,” she said, noting the IRS high-wealth unit lost 38% of its employees.

A recent change allowing the agency to share taxpayer data with immigration officials could also result in a further loss of $313 billion in the coming decade if that discourages migrants from paying taxes out of fear of deportation, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Treasury market

Wall Street investors and strategists are closely monitoring the magnitude of this week’s tax collections amid the sharp swings in the bond market driven by the Trump administration’s trade war.

In the near-term, the amount of cash flowing out of the money markets to pay Uncle Sam will impact funding costs. Higher tax receipts for the federal government means more liquidity is drained from the overall financial system, likely pushing up the cost of borrowing in the overnight repurchase market — which was already strained by last week’s market chaos. 

Wells Fargo strategists, who estimate that this April’s tax receipts will boost the Treasury’s General Account by as much as $300 billion, last week flagged the risk of higher repo rates amid the tax payments.

Looking further out, the market is focused on what the April tax receipts mean for the Treasury’s cash balance in light of the debt ceiling. Wrightson ICAP, for one, forecast last month with low conviction an 11% increase in non-withheld income tax collections in the April to May period, compared to last year. 

The amount coming into the Treasury’s coffers also carries implications for the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind, which on April 1 slowed to a cap of $5 billion in Treasuries per month. Officials are closely watching the level of reserves in the banking system and gauging broader financial liquidity to determine how much longer the quantitative tightening process can continue.

Customer service

Businesses have other reasons for concern about the IRS layoffs, including greater difficulty getting advice from the agency on complex tax questions.

“The old adage ‘if you break it, you’ve bought it’ applies here,” Sepp said. “They’re doing the breaking right now, so they own the problem.”

Sepp said the NTU is very concerned about deep coming cuts to the office of the Taxpayer Advocate — an internal means for taxpayers to challenge IRS decisions — and the risk of further delays in efforts to modernize the agency’s creaky data systems.  

It’s unclear, he said, if Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency is going to scrap the modernization effort and start over. 

For businesses with complex tax problems, proposals to employ artificial chatbots instead of humans could be especially problematic, said Daniel Reck, a University of Maryland economics professor who researches tax policy. 

“That could turn into a pretty Kafkaesque experience, and it’s already not a lot of fun,” said Reck.

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Senate begins putting stamp on Trump tax bill

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Significant changes are in store for President Donald Trump’s signature $3.9 trillion tax-cut bill as the Senate begins closed-door talks this week on legislation that squeaked through the House by a single vote. 

Senate Republican leaders are aiming to make permanent many of the temporary tax cuts in the House bill, a move that would increase the bill’s more than $2.5 trillion deficit impact. But doing so risks alienating fiscal hawks already at war with party moderates over the bill’s safety-net cuts. 

It amounts to a game of chess further complicated by the top Senate rules-keeper, who will decide whether some key provisions violate the chamber’s strict rules. Jettisoning those provisions — which include gun silencer regulations and artificial intelligence policy — could sink the bill in the House. 

House Republicans’ top tax writer, Representative Jason Smith, on Friday said that senators need to leave most of the bill untouched in order to ensure it can pass the House in the end.

“I would encourage my counterparts, don’t be too drastic, be very balanced,” he said.

The wrangling imperils Republicans’ goal of sending the “Big, Beautiful Bill” to Trump’s desk by July 4. But the real deadline is sometime in August or September, when the Treasury Department estimates the US will run out of borrowing authority.

The House bill would raise the government’s legal debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which the Senate wants to increase to $5 trillion in order to push off the next fiscal cliff until after the 2026 congressional elections. 

That’s just one of the major changes the Senate will weigh in the coming weeks. Here are others:

Permanent business breaks

Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo’s top priority is making permanent the temporary business tax cuts that the House bill sunsets after 2029. These are the research and development tax deduction, the ability to use depreciation and amortization as the basis for interest expensing, and 100% bonus depreciation of certain property, including most machinery and factories. 

Senate Republicans plan to use a budget gimmick that counts the extension of the individual provisions in the 2017 Trump tax bill as having no cost. That gives them room to make the additional business tax cuts and possibly extend some of the new four-year individual cuts in the House bill like those on tips and overtime. 

Deficit hawks could demand new offsets, however, either in the form of spending cuts or ending tax breaks like one on carried interest used by private equity. 

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Mike Crapo

Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg

The SALT cap

The House expanded the state and local tax deduction limit from $10,000 to $40,000 to get blue-state Republicans behind the bill. But SALT isn’t an issue in the Senate, where high-tax states like California, New York and New Jersey are represented by Democrats. 

“I can’t think of any Senate Republicans who think more than $10,000 is needed and I can think of several who think the number should be zero,” said Rohit Kumar, a former top Senate staffer now with Big Four firm PwC.

That includes deficit hawks like Louisiana’s John Kennedy, who has balked at the House’s SALT boost. 

Senators could propose keeping the current $10,000 SALT cap as a low-ball counter, forcing the House to settle from something in the ballpark of a $30,000 cap, Kumar said. 

The Senate could also change new limits on the abilities of passthrough service businesses to claim SALT deductions.

Green energy tax credits

Moderate Republicans in the Senate are pushing back on provisions in the House bill that gut tax credits for solar, wind, battery makers and several other clean energy sectors.

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she’s seeking to soften aggressive phaseouts of tax credits for clean electricity production and nuclear power. She has the backing of at least three other Republicans, giving her enough leverage to make demands in a chamber where opposition from four GOP senators would kill the bill. 

Their demands will run headlong into ultraconservatives, who already think the House bill doesn’t get rid of tax benefits for clean energy fast enough.

Medicaid, Food Stamps

Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, Rick Scott of Florida, Mike Lee of Utah and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin say they’re willing to sink the bill if it doesn’t cut more spending. 

“I think we have enough to stop the process until the president gets serious about reductions,” Johnson said recently on CNN. 

They haven’t made specific demands yet, but they could start off where the House Freedom Caucus fell short — cutting the federal matching payment for Medicaid for those enrolled under Obamacare and further limiting federal reimbursement for Medicaid provider taxes charged by states. 

Conservatives’ demands are in stark contrast to Republican senators already uncomfortable with the new Medicaid co-pays and state cost-sharing for Medicaid and food stamps in the House bill. Senators Josh Hawley of Missouri, Susan Collins of Maine, and Jim Justice and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia join Murkowski in this camp. 

Boosting their case is Trump, who told the Freedom Caucus to stop “grandstanding” on more Medicaid cuts.   

Regulatory matters

There’s an extensive list of regulatory matters in the House bill that could be struck if they are found to break Senate rules for averting a filibuster and passing the legislation by a simple majority.  

Provisions likely to be challenged for not being primarily budgetary in nature include a repeal of gun silencer regulations, preemption of state artificial intelligence regulations, staffing regulations for nursing homes and abolishing the Direct File program at the Internal Revenue Service.

The House bill’s provisions limiting the ability of federal judges to hold administration officials in contempt, ending funding for Planned Parenthood, requiring congressional review of new regulations and easing permitting of fossil fuel projects are also vulnerable.

The biggest Senate rules fight will be over using the “current policy” budget gimmick to lower the cost of the bill.  Senate Republican leaders could explore bypassing rules keeper Elizabeth MacDonough if she finds the accounting move breaks the rules. 

Battles over these provisions could take weeks. 

“I think it would be very difficult to get it out of the Senate quickly,” said Bill Hoagland, a former top Republican Senate budget staffer now with the Bipartisan Policy Center. 

Spectrum sales as pay-fors

A major auction of government radio spectrum that would generate an estimated $88 billion in revenue is another unresolved fight.  

Ted Cruz of Texas, the Senate Commerce chair, backs the spectrum sale but Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota has vowed to protect the Defense Department, which has warned auctioning off its spectrum would degrade its capabilities and cost hundreds of billions for retrofits. 

The proposal would free up key spectrum for wireless broadband giants like Verizon and Elon Musk’s Starlink.

The estate tax

Majority Leader John Thune and 46 other Republican senators back a total repeal of the estate tax, which would likely cost several hundred billion dollars over a decade, benefiting the heirs of the richest 0.1%. That could make it too pricey for the Senate to include.

The House bill permanently increases the estate tax exemption to $15 million for individuals and $30 million for married couples, with future increases tied to inflation.

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Accounting

Ascend adds firms in Florida and California

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Private-equity backed accounting firm Ascend has added Florida Regional Leader firm Saltmarsh, Cleaveland & Gund and California-based Glenn Burdette to its platform, effective June 1.

Saltmarsh, Cleaveland & Gund, based in Pensacola and Tampa, Florida, and Glenn Burdette, in San Luis Obispo, California, are the latest firms to join Arlington, Virginia-based Ascend, which is backed by private equity firm Alpine Investors and ranked No. 29 on Accounting Today‘s 2025 Top 100 Firms list, alongside some of its member firms.

Glenn Burdette formerly operated under an employee stock ownership plan and adds a central California presence to Ascend along with a team of 75 and seven partners, while Saltmarsh marks Ascend’s first Florida footprint and adds a team of 16 partners and 178 total team members to the firm. 

Ascend reported $314.74 million in revenue and 1,464 employees in 2024.

Terms of both deals were not disclosed.

Ascend's Nishaad Ruparel

Ascend’s Nishaad Ruparel

“These are two monumental partnerships for Ascend,” said Ascend president Nishaad in a statement. “Glenn Burdette was founded 60 years ago, and in 2000 became the first CPA firm in California to form an ESOP. That decision marked the firm’s commitment to a set of core values that they still wear on their sleeve today – a desire to provide opportunity for their people, a focus on shared ownership as an enabler of success, and a fierce commitment to hold the pen on their own story.”

Glenn Burdette provides tax, audit, bookkeeping, business consulting and financial management services, primarily to mid­dle-mar­ket and small own­er-man­aged busi­ness­es.

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“Partnering with Ascend is the right move at the right time for Glenn Burdette,” said the firm’s CEO David Merlo. “Their forward-thinking approach and shared values make them a natural fit for our next chapter. We chose Ascend because of their strong commitment to reimagining what’s possible — for both our clients and our people.”

Saltmarsh, Cleaveland and Gund is a full-service accounting and advisory firm offering expertise and specialized consulting for many industries and high-net-worth individuals.

Saltmarsh, Cleaveland & Gund

“Saltmarsh has an equally proud history, with an 80-year legacy in Florida’s panhandle and central cities,” said Ruparel in a statement. “The firm is synonymous with quality, is a longstanding best-place-to-work, and has a dynamic group of partners that are seen as trusted advisors across disciplines. Less than a year ago, Lee Bell and the Saltmarsh leadership team took the time they needed to articulate a strategic vision that would carry the firm into the next decade and enumerate a plan for achieving that vision. We feel privileged that they decided Ascend is best positioned to help them fulfill those ideals.”

“The success of our business is entirely about putting our people first so they can do what they love, which is helping our clients achieve success,” said Saltmarsh Advisors CEO Lee Bell in a statement. “Ascend’s intense focus on people and their unique concentration on supporting our more than 80-year legacy as Saltmarsh is why we made the decision to partner with them.”

Both Glenn Burdette and Saltmarsh are independent members of the BDO Alliance.

Since Ascend was launched in early 2023, it has made a significant number of investments, including including Opsahl Dawson in Vancouver, Washington, in January 2023; ATKG in San Antonio in May; LMC in New York City in June; Sentient Solutions for Accounting, an offshore services provider in India and Mexico, in July; Goering & Granatino in Overland Park, Kansas, in October; Wilson Lewis in Atlanta in November; LevitZacks in San Diego in March 2024; North Carolina’s Blackman & Sloop and New Hampshire’s TSS in May; and Lucas Horsfall in Pasadena, California, in October; Walter Shuffain in Boston in January 2025; and McGee, Hearne & Paiz in Cheyenne, Wyoming, in February 2025.

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Intuit reports rapid growth attributed to AI

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Intuit has reported strong third quarter growth, with the company reporting total revenue of $7.8 billion, an increase of 15 percent. Within this revenue growth, Intuit’s Credit Karma grew the most, raking in $579 million during the third quarter, a 31 percent increase, driven by credit cards, personal loans and car insurance. 

With this growth in mind, Intuit is optimistic about its future prospects and has raised its full year guidance for FY2025 as a result. The company now expects to end the year with $18.760 billion, which would represent a roughly 15% annual growth, higher than the previously expected 12-13% growth. GAAP operating income is expected now to grow 35% versus the previously-anticipated 28-30%; non-GAAP income, similarly, is anticipated to grow 18% versus 13-14%. 

Business solutions revenue is expected now to grow about 16%, the consumer group is expected to grow about 10% (versus 7-8% previously), the ProTax group is expected to grow 3-4% and Credit Karma is expected to grow 28% (versus 5-8% previously). 

Within the consumer group specifically, TurboTax Live is expected to grow 47%, to $2 billion; TurboTax Online is expected to grow about 6% on share gains and average revenue per return is expected to grow 13% as more customers choose assisted offerings. Meanwhile, the number of customers who use TurboTax for free is expected to go down from 10 million last year to 8 million this year. 

Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi attributed this rapid growth to its AI investments. 

“We have exceptional momentum with outstanding performance across our platform. We’re redefining what’s possible with AI by becoming a one-stop shop of AI-agents and AI-enabled human experts to fuel the success of consumers and small and mid-market businesses,” said Sasan Goodarzi, Intuit’s chief executive officer. “We had an outstanding year in tax, including a significant acceleration in TurboTax Live revenue growth as we disrupt the assisted tax category.”

The news comes after the announcement that the IRS Direct File program is likely shutting down after just one year in existence. The program had been the subject of intense criticism from both conservative lawmakers as well as tax prep software companies (via their Coalition for Taxpayer Rights, which represents retail tax preparation and tax software companies and financial institutions) on the basis that the program was unnecessary in light of free file programs offered by public entities, as well as a general distrust of the IRS. Direct File had the potential to undermine software like TurboTax by offering a free service that could have competed with Intuit.

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