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Trump tariffs would add costs for consumers, economist says

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Peter Kramer/NBC via Getty Images

U.S. consumers would likely see prices increase if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with a plan to levy import tariffs, experts said Tuesday during CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.

“Either way, there is a cost to consumers,” said Erica York, senior economist at the Tax Foundation.

A tariff is a tax placed on imported goods. Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies that import those goods.

Businesses could pass along higher prices to consumers at the store to offset the cost of tariffs, for example, experts said.

President-elect Trump's tariffs will be a significant weight on the economy, says Moody's Mark Zandi

Tariffs may also reduce business profits, thereby lowering returns for shareholders and perhaps pushing businesses to hold down wages or employment opportunities for workers, York said.

“It is such a company-specific decision,” she said.

No ‘guarantee’ that prices won’t rise

In an NBC News interview that aired Dec. 8, Trump said he would fulfill his campaign promise to impose tariffs, but said he couldn’t guarantee U.S. households wouldn’t pay more because of tariffs.

“I can’t guarantee anything,” Trump said. “I can’t guarantee tomorrow.”

Trump imposed tariffs during his first term on washing machines, solar panels, steel, aluminum and a range of Chinese goods, for example. The Biden administration kept many of them intact.

Trump has called for a more sweeping tariff regime during his second term.

On the campaign trail, he floated the idea of universal tariffs, of up to 20%, on all trade partners, and of at least 60% on Chinese goods.

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Such a policy would raise costs by $3,000 in 2025 for the average U.S. household, according to an October analysis by the Tax Policy Center.

Low- and middle-income households “who might already be living paycheck to paycheck” would likely see the largest financial impact from tariffs, said Marianela Collado, CEO and senior wealth advisor at Tobias Financial Advisors.

In November, Trump also pledged to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico — the U.S.’ largest trading partners — if they didn’t address drug trafficking and migration across the border.

Uncertainty around Trump tariff plan

However, there’s considerable uncertainty around how tariffs might be implemented, including the countries and products that are targeted.

It’s also unclear if Trump has the authority to unilaterally impose universal tariffs, York said.

Some market experts aren’t convinced Trump means to follow through on his pledges.

His various tariff policies are likely “starting gambits” meant as leverage to “coerce” trading partners during negotiations, said David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, during the CNBC summit.

“People are trying to take something literal and at [Trump’s] word when we know that’s not how” he operates, Zervos said.

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Student loan changes likely coming under Trump

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US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters while in flight on Air Force One, en route to Joint Base Andrews on April 6, 2025. 

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

The Trump administration recently announced that it would begin a process of overhauling the country’s $1.6 trillion federal student loan system.

The potential changes could impact how millions of borrowers repay their debt, and who qualifies for loan forgiveness.

“Not only will this rulemaking serve as an opportunity to identify and cut unnecessary red tape, but it will allow key stakeholders to offer suggestions to streamline and improve federal student aid programs,” said Acting Under Secretary James Bergeron in a statement on April 3.

Around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans.

Here are three changes likely to come out of the reforms, experts say.

1. SAVE plan won’t survive

Former President Joe Biden rolled out the SAVE plan in the summer of 2023, describing it as “the most affordable student loan plan ever.” Around 8 million borrowers signed up for the new income-driven repayment, or IDR, plan, the Biden administration said in 2024.

The plan has been in limbo since last year, and in February a U.S. appeals court blocked SAVE in February. The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with the seven Republican-led states that filed a lawsuit against SAVE, arguing that Biden was trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the Supreme Court struck down his sweeping loan cancellation plan in June 2023.

SAVE came with two key provisions that the legal challenges targeted: It had lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.

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The Trump administration is unlikely to continue to defend the plan in court, or to revise it in its regulations, experts say.

“It’s difficult to see any scenario where SAVE will survive,” said Scott Buchanan, executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, a trade group for federal student loan servicers.

For now, many borrowers who signed up for SAVE remain in an interest-free forbearance. That reprieve will likely end soon, forcing people to switch into another plan.

2. End to loan forgiveness under other plans

The Trump administration recently revised some of the U.S. Department of Education’s other income-driven repayment plans for federal student loan borrowers, saying that the changes were necessary to comply with the recent court order over SAVE.

Historically, at least, IDR plans limit borrowers’ monthly payments to a share of their discretionary income and cancel any remaining debt after a certain period, typically 20 years or 25 years. 

The IDR plans now open are: Income-Based Repayment, Pay As You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment, according a recent Education Department press release.

As a result of Trump administration’s revisions, two of those plans — PAYE and ICR — no longer conclude in automatic loan forgiveness after 20 or 25 years, Buchanan said, noting that the courts have questioned the legality of that relief along with SAVE.

The Trump administration, through its changes to the student loan system, is likely to make at least some of those temporary changes permanent, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Still, if a borrower enrolled in ICR or PAYE switches to IBR, their previous payments made under the other plans will count toward loan forgiveness under IBR, as long as they meet the plan’s other requirements, Kantrowitz said. Some borrowers may opt to take that strategy if they have a lower monthly bill under ICR or PAYE than they would on IBR.

3. Narrowed eligibility for PSLF

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March that aims to limit eligibility for the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows many not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

According to Trump’s executive order, borrowers employed by organizations that do work involving “illegal immigration, human smuggling, child trafficking, pervasive damage to public property and disruption of the public order” will “not be eligible for public service loan forgiveness.”

For now, the language in the president’s order was fairly vague. Nor were many details given in the latest announcement about reforming the student loan system, which said the Trump administration is looking for ways to “improve” PSLF.

As a result, it remains unclear exactly which organizations will no longer be considered a qualifying employer under PSLF, experts said.

However, in his first few months in office, Trump’s executive orders have targeted immigrants, transgender and nonbinary people and those who work to increase diversity across the private and public sector. Many nonprofits work in these spaces, providing legal support or doing advocacy and education work.

Changes to PSLF can’t be retroactive, consumer advocates say. That means that if you are currently working for or previously worked for an organization that the Trump administration later excludes from the program, you’ll still get credit for that time, at least up until the changes go into effect.

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Social Security updates anti-fraud measures for benefit claims

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A sign for the U.S. Social Security Administration is seen outside its headquarters in Woodlawn, Md., on Thursday, March 20, 2025.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

New anti-fraud protections are slated to go into effect on Monday at the Social Security Administration.

Ahead of the new policy, an agency spokesperson confirmed on Wednesday that all claim types can still be completed over the telephone, including retirement, survivor and spousal or children’s benefits. Previously, the SSA said those applicants would need to visit an agency office in person for identity proofing.

Individuals making other benefit claims — including for Social Security disability insurance, Medicare and Supplemental Security Income — can also complete their claims entirely over the telephone, which is in line with the agency’s previous guidance, according to the spokesperson.

The Social Security Administration’s update did not mention changes to direct deposit information, which it had previously said would now require in-office visits.

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The agency’s new anti-fraud efforts come as new leadership under the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency is broadly seeking to curb waste, fraud and abuse across federal government agencies.

The SSA is implementing the new anti-fraud procedures, including stricter identity verification, as the agency faces website outages and long wait times on its 800 number, potentially forcing more people to visit offices for assistance.

Social Security experts and advocates have raised concerns that the new policies may make accessing benefits more difficult for vulnerable populations, particularly seniors and people with disabilities.

However, the Social Security Administration’s update is a positive development, said Bill Sweeney, senior vice president of government affairs at AARP. He did add that it would be more ideal if the policy and timeline were reconsidered for better outcomes.

“This seems like a pretty good and encouraging signal that they’re listening to folks, that they’re that they’re open to pivoting and reconsidering how to roll these things out and looking at new ideas for how to implement it,” Sweeney said.

Some beneficiaries will still need to visit offices

What you need to know about Social Security

Online applications may be difficult for many seniors and individuals with disabilities, who may lack access to the necessary resources or know how to navigate the processes, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute.

More than 10% of seniors in 35 states would need to travel more than 45 miles to get to the closest Social Security office, according to a new analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

About 6 million seniors don’t drive, while almost 8 million older Americans have a medical condition or disability that makes it difficult for them to travel, according to the research from Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Many beneficiaries already face obstacles getting through to the Social Security’s phone lines to make an in-person appointment and then need to drive to a field office, said Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Generally, individuals need to call for an appointment, though the agency does urge beneficiaries to first try seeking help online.

‘Fear and concern among many older Americans’

Both experts and advocates take issue with the tight timeline under which the policy changes are being implemented.

“If you’re asking seniors and other SSA customers to do something different, you need to provide enough time for them to understand what it is they need to do,” Romig said.

The AARP sent a letter on Monday to Social Security Administration acting commissioner Lee Dudek urging the agency to “halt changes to phone services,” which will “only exacerbate the ongoing customer service crisis,” wrote Nancy LeaMond, chief advocacy and engagement officer.

Instead, the new policy changes should be done more deliberately, with public input, a clear communication strategy and reasonable timeline, the AARP explained in the letter.

The changes set to go into effect on Monday come as Social Security’s website has recently repeatedly crashed, phone service hold times have increased and in some cases disconnected callers, while field offices also have long in-person waits, LeaMond said in the letter.

“This chaotic environment is fueling fear and concern among many older Americans,” LeaMond wrote.

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How to check eligibility to claim the $1,400 IRS stimulus check

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The federal tax deadline is less than one week away — and there’s still time to collect a pandemic-era IRS stimulus check. It’s your final chance to do so.

If you’re unsure if you received the money, there’s a simple way to check via your IRS account online, tax experts say.

The 2021 stimulus payments were worth up to $1,400 per individual, or $2,800 per married couple. A family of four could receive up to $5,600 with two eligible dependents.

Filers who never received the funds could claim the recovery rebate credit on their 2021 federal return. The last chance for that credit is the 2024 tax deadline on April 15, according to the IRS.

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You’re eligible for the full recovery rebate credit with up to $75,000 in adjusted gross income as a single filer or $150,000 for married couples filing jointly for 2021.

The phaseout begins with earnings above that and eligibility falls to zero once adjusted gross income reaches $80,000 for single filers or $160,000 for married couples filing together.

The ‘best place to look’ for stimulus checks

The IRS in December unveiled plans to send “special payments” to 1 million taxpayers who didn’t claim the 2021 recovery rebate credit on tax returns for that year.  

Most payments should have arrived via direct deposit or mailed paper check by late January 2025, according to the agency. 

You can create a login for your IRS online account to check the status of your economic impact payments, including the 2021 stimulus check.

“That’s the best place to look,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

After logging into your account, you can find stimulus check information in the “tax records” section under the “records and status” toolbar. 

You can also check the “tax records” section to see if you filed a return for 2021. While some taxpayers don’t earn enough to have a filing requirement, you must submit your 2021 return to claim the recovery rebate credit for your stimulus payment, Lucas explained.

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File your 2021 return if ‘there’s any doubt’

In some cases, online accounts show the IRS issued stimulus checks, but filers say they never received the money, said Syracuse University law professor Robert Nassau, director of the school’s low-income tax clinic.

“If there’s any doubt” about your payment, it’s better to file your 2021 return and claim the recovery rebate credit before April 15, he said. Otherwise, you could miss the deadline and lose your chance to collect the money, Nassau added. 

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