Connect with us

Finance

What do higher-for-longer interest rates mean for your money?

Published

on

The Federal Reserve signaled at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday that interest rates will remain elevated for some time, bringing to an end the era of ultra-cheap money.

Americans will be forced to adapt to a new normal where savers benefit from higher rates, but borrowers face steeper debt payments on everything from credit cards to mortgages to student loans.

“The timing of when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates is up in the air – and in an indefinite holding pattern,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

Policymakers voted during their policy-setting meeting to leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level since 2001. But officials also indicated they are unlikely to cut rates anytime soon amid signs of sticky inflation, meaning that borrowing money will remain far more expensive than it was just four years ago.

FED HOLDS INTEREST RATES STEADY AS INFLATION CASTS DOUBT ON FUTURE CUTS

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference in Washington

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference at the end of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. on March 20, 2024. (Photo by Mandel Ngan/ AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

For Americans who carry a balance from one month to the next, the new era of persistently high interest rates could be costing them hundreds – even thousands – of dollars.

While the federal funds rate is not what consumers pay directly, it affects borrowing costs for home equity lines of credit, auto loans and credit cards. Higher rates have helped push the average rate on 30-year mortgages above 7% for the first time in years. Borrowing costs for everything from home equity lines of credit, auto loans and credit cards have also spiked.

In fact, housing affordability is as bad today as it was during the peak of the 2008 housing bubble thanks to the astronomical rise in mortgage rates. 

The Atlanta Fed’s Housing Affordability Monitor, which compares median home prices and other housing costs with median household income, indicates the median U.S. household would have to spend about 39.8% of their income to afford the median-priced house as of February, according to the index. While that marks an improvement from the end of 2023, it is still far lower than the typical pre-pandemic level.

Americans with credit card debt are also feeling the pinch from higher rates. 

Average interest rates on credit cards have already surged from 16% in February 2022, before the Fed began hiking rates, to 20.66% as of Wednesday, according to a Bankrate database.

Even just a minor change in credit card rates can affect how much Americans owe.

STAGFLATION FEARS COME BACK WITH A VENGEANCE

For instance, if you owe $5,000 – which the average American does – current APR levels would mean it would take about 277 months and $7,723 in interest to pay off the debt making the minimum payments. By comparison, that same amount of debt would have taken 269 months and $6,126 to pay off when interest rates were lower.

Those rates are unlikely to fall substantially anytime soon, thanks to the Fed’s higher-for-longer policy stance. 

“The mantra of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates is music to the ears of savers who will continue to enjoy inflation-beating returns on safe-haven savings accounts, money markets, and CDs for the foreseeable future,” McBride said. “For borrowers, however, it dashes the hopes that interest rates will come down in a meaningful way any time soon.”

The Federal Reserve building in Washington

A pedestrian passes the Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., on June 3, 2023. (Nathan Howard/Bloomberg / Getty Images)

But there is also a silver lining to higher rates for many consumers.

Most banks and credit unions will raise their savings rates during periods of higher interest rates, making it a good chance for some Americans, particularly retirees living off of their savings, to earn more.

The national average banking savings rate hit 0.58% as of May 1, according to Bankrate, although rates are as measly as 0.01% at some of the biggest banks in the U.S.

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

There’s another far more lucrative option: High-yield savings accounts, many of which are now paying between 4.2% and 5.27%, providing an option for consumers who are seeking a lower-risk return. Savers can open an online high-yield savings account, but they should make sure the bank is insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

There are now more than two dozen nationally available savings and money market deposit accounts from FDIC-insured banks paying a rate of 3.75% or higher, according to Bankrate.

Continue Reading

Finance

Trump pivot on tariffs shows Wall Street still has a seat at his table

Published

on

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.

As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.

Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.

“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.

So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.

Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.

Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.

Bond vigilantes

Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.

“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”

Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.

Ed Yardeni on tariff pause: This is a positive development for the economy

“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.

Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.

Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.

But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.

‘Chaos discount’

Banks, closely watched for the central role they play in lending to corporations and consumers, entered the year with great enthusiasm after Trump’s election.

The setup was as promising as it had been in decades, according to Mayo and other analysts: A strengthening economy would help boost loan demand, while lower interest rates, deregulation and the return of deals activity including mergers and IPO listings would only add fuel to the fire.

Instead, by the last weekend, bank stocks were in a bear market, having given up all their gains since the election, on fears that Trump was steering the economy to recession. Amid the tumult, it’s likely that reports will show that deal-making slowed as corporate leaders adopt a wait-and-see attitude.  

“The chaos discount, we call it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Truist bank.

Foran and other analysts said the Trump factor made it difficult to forecast whether the economy was heading for recession, which banks would be winners and losers in a trade war and, therefore, how much they should be worth.

Investors will next focus on JPMorgan, which kicks off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday. They will likely press Dimon and other CEOs about the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are faring during tariff negotiations.

Wednesday’s reprieve could prove short lived. The day after Trump’s announcement and the historic rally, markets continued to decline. There remains a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, each with their own needs and vulnerabilities, and an unclear path to compromise. And universal tariffs of 10% are still in effect.

“We got close, and that’s a very uncomfortable place to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, the Munich-based asset manager, said Wednesday on CNBC, referring to a crisis in which the Fed would need to step in.  

“We don’t want to get there again,” he said. “The more you get to that point repeatedly, the higher the risk that you’re going to cross it.”

The Fed got very close to having to intervene due to market malfunction, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

Continue Reading

Finance

How the mother of all ‘short squeezes’ helped drive stocks to historic gains Wednesday

Published

on

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2025 in New York. 

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

A massive number of hedge fund short sellers rushed to close out their positions during Wednesday afternoon’s sudden surge in stocks, turning a stunning rally into one for the history books.

Traders — betting on share price declines — had piled on a record number of short bets against the U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday as President Donald Trump initially rolled out steeper-than-expected tariffs.

In order to sell short, hedge funds borrow the security they’re betting against from a bank and sell it. Then as the security decreases in price from where they sold it, they buy it back more cheaply and return it to the bank, profiting from the difference.

But sometimes that can backfire.

As stocks soared on news of the tariff pause, hedge funds were forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly in order to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze. With this artificial buying force pushing it higher, the S&P 500 ended up with its third-biggest gain since World War II.

Coming into Wednesday, short positioning was almost twice as much as the size seen in the first quarter of 2020 amid the onset of the Covid pandemic, according to Bank of America. As funds ran to cover, a basket of the most shorted stocks surged by 12.5% Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs, pulling off a larger jump than the S&P 500‘s 9.5% gain.

And a whopping 30 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges during the session, marking the heaviest volume day on record, according to Nasdaq and FactSet data going back 18 years.

“You can’t catch a move. When you see someone short covering, the exit doors become so small because of these crowded trades,” said Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial CEO and CIO. “We live in a world where there’s more and more twitchiness to the marketplace, there’s more and more paranoia.”

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

S&P 500

Of course, there were real buyers too. Long-only funds bought a record amount of tech stocks during the session, especially the last three hours of the day, according to data from Bank of America.

But traders credit the shorts running for cover for the magnitude of the move.

“The pain on the short side is palpable; the whipsaw we have witnessed the past few weeks is extreme,” Oppenheimer’s trading desk said in a note. “What we saw in tech on that rise was obviously covering but more so real buyers adding on to higher quality semis.”

Thin liquidity also played a role in Wednesday’s monster moves. The size of stock futures (CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) one can trade with the click of your mouse dropped to an all-time low of $2 million on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs data. Drastically thin markets tends to fuel outsized price swings. 

Markets were pulling back Thursday as investors realized the economy is still in danger from super-high China tariffs and the uncertainty that daily negotiations with other countries will bring over the next three months.

There are still big short positions left in the market, traders said.

That could fuel things again, if the market starts to rally again.

“The desk view is that short covering is far from over,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a note. “Our reasoning is that the market can’t de-risk a short in less than 3 hours which provided 20%+ SPX Index downside & major reduction in NET LEVERAGE over 7 seven weeks.”

“No shot it cleared in less than 3 hours,” Bank of America said.

Continue Reading

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Capri, Janover, Harley-Davidson, CarMax, U.S. Steel and more

Published

on

These are the stocks posting the largest moves in midday trading.

Continue Reading

Trending