Staff sort express deliveries at China Post’s Zaozhuang branch in east China’s Shandong province on November 10, 2024
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BEIJING — China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival saw consumers spend more than expected in what has otherwise been a tepid retail environment, consulting executives told CNBC.
The country’s version of Black Friday kicked off this year on Oct. 14, more than a week earlier than in 2023, and wrapped up Monday. Major e-commerce companies used to report gross merchandise value, an industry measure of sales over time, but did not for a third consecutive year amid weak consumer sentiment.
“I do think for many brands it probably will have turned out a bit better than they thought, but on a low level. Probably nobody would say we hit it out of the ballpark,” said Chris Reitermann, CEO of Ogilvy APAC and Greater China. He is also president of WPP China.
Many multinational corporations that sell consumer products in China are more cautious on the market, if not struggling, Reitermann said. But he pointed out many of the companies are still “very profitable” in the country, even if their growth has slowed to the low single digits, instead of high double digits.
For this year’s Singles Day, Alibaba claimed “robust growth” in GMV and a “record number of active buyers,” while JD.com said the number of shoppers on its platform rose by more than 20% year-over-year.
The shopping season that celebrates single people, also known as Double 11, came as the Chinese government has announced a series of stimulus measures since late September, fueling a stock market rally.
“There seems to be an uptick” in consumer sentiment over the last six weeks, said Daniel Zipser, senior partner at McKinsey and leader of its Asia Pacific consumer and retail division. It’s “hard to predict what that means going forward.”
Singles Day exceeded expectations for most brands, Zipser said. But rather than sales rising across the board, he pointed out pockets of growth in categories such as outdoors, pet care and “blind box” toys — in which consumers buy uniformly marked boxes for a chance at winning a new collectible.
He noted that the blind box category is one that went from $0 before Covid-19 to an industry more than $2 billion in size, reflecting the potential speed of consumer adoption in China.
China’s retail sales for October are expected to have risen by 3.8% from a year ago, according to a Reuters poll. That would be an improvement from 3.2% growth in September.
“We saw people spending more this year,” Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC on Tuesday. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.
He estimated 16% growth in GMV for the shopping festival from last year, in likely the strongest performance in years. Cooke added that brands didn’t have to cut prices as much.
Research firm Syntun said Tuesday it estimated 20.1% year-on-year growth in sales over the Singles Day period to 1.11 trillion ($150 billion) for Alibaba’s Tmall, JD.com and PDD.
Investors could get more details on China consumption later this week. JD.com is scheduled to release quarterly results Thursday, followed by Alibaba on Friday.
“We’ve seen consumers who have, if you will, save for a rainy day, and they’ve purchased on this Double 11 shopping festival,” Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight Research, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
She said the company’s weekly survey has indicated some “differences” in consumer sentiment over the last month.
Hopes for a recovery in 2025
China’s consumer spending has come under pressure since the Covid-19 pandemic as households grapple with economic uncertainty. A real estate slump has cut into household wealth, while economic growth has slowed.
While premium or mid-tier brands are “disappearing very fast,” higher-end brands such as Lululemon can do well, Reitermann said. He noted generally that local brands are often lower-priced and able to go to market faster.
He expects some rebound in consumer confidence in the second half of next year, after additional stimulus is likely announced in the first half.
China’s Ministry of Finance last week indicated more fiscal support could come in 2025. While China did not hand out cash to consumers during the pandemic, this year, the country did roll out a trade-in program to subsidize a portion of car and home appliance purchases.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.
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With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.
As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.
Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.
“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.
So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.
Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.
Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.
Bond vigilantes
Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.
“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”
Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.
“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.
Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.
Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.
But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.
‘Chaos discount’
Banks, closely watched for the central role they play in lending to corporations and consumers, entered the year with great enthusiasm after Trump’s election.
The setup was as promising as it had been in decades, according to Mayo and other analysts: A strengthening economy would help boost loan demand, while lower interest rates, deregulation and the return of deals activity including mergers and IPO listings would only add fuel to the fire.
Instead, by the last weekend, bank stocks were in a bear market, having given up all their gains since the election, on fears that Trump was steering the economy to recession. Amid the tumult, it’s likely that reports will show that deal-making slowed as corporate leaders adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
“The chaos discount, we call it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Truist bank.
Foran and other analysts said the Trump factor made it difficult to forecast whether the economy was heading for recession, which banks would be winners and losers in a trade war and, therefore, how much they should be worth.
Investors will next focus on JPMorgan, which kicks off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday. They will likely press Dimon and other CEOs about the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are faring during tariff negotiations.
Wednesday’s reprieve could prove short lived. The day after Trump’s announcement and the historic rally, markets continued to decline. There remains a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, each with their own needs and vulnerabilities, and an unclear path to compromise. And universal tariffs of 10% are still in effect.
“We got close, and that’s a very uncomfortable place to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, the Munich-based asset manager, said Wednesday on CNBC, referring to a crisis in which the Fed would need to step in.
“We don’t want to get there again,” he said. “The more you get to that point repeatedly, the higher the risk that you’re going to cross it.”
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2025 in New York.
Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images
A massive number of hedge fund short sellers rushed to close out their positions during Wednesday afternoon’s sudden surge in stocks, turning a stunning rally into one for the history books.
Traders — betting on share price declines — had piled on a record number of short bets against the U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday as President Donald Trump initially rolled out steeper-than-expected tariffs.
In order to sell short, hedge funds borrow the security they’re betting against from a bank and sell it. Then as the security decreases in price from where they sold it, they buy it back more cheaply and return it to the bank, profiting from the difference.
But sometimes that can backfire.
As stocks soared on news of the tariff pause, hedge funds were forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly in order to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze. With this artificial buying force pushing it higher, the S&P 500 ended up with its third-biggest gain since World War II.
Coming into Wednesday, short positioning was almost twice as much as the size seen in the first quarter of 2020 amid the onset of the Covid pandemic, according to Bank of America. As funds ran to cover, a basket of the most shorted stocks surged by 12.5% Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs, pulling off a larger jump than the S&P 500‘s 9.5% gain.
And a whopping 30 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges during the session, marking the heaviest volume day on record, according to Nasdaq and FactSet data going back 18 years.
“You can’t catch a move. When you see someone short covering, the exit doors become so small because of these crowded trades,” said Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial CEO and CIO. “We live in a world where there’s more and more twitchiness to the marketplace, there’s more and more paranoia.”
S&P 500
Of course, there were real buyers too. Long-only funds bought a record amount of tech stocks during the session, especially the last three hours of the day, according to data from Bank of America.
But traders credit the shorts running for cover for the magnitude of the move.
“The pain on the short side is palpable; the whipsaw we have witnessed the past few weeks is extreme,” Oppenheimer’s trading desk said in a note. “What we saw in tech on that rise was obviously covering but more so real buyers adding on to higher quality semis.”
Thin liquidity also played a role in Wednesday’s monster moves. The size of stock futures (CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) one can trade with the click of your mouse dropped to an all-time low of $2 million on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs data. Drastically thin markets tends to fuel outsized price swings.
Markets were pulling back Thursday as investors realized the economy is still in danger from super-high China tariffs and the uncertainty that daily negotiations with other countries will bring over the next three months.
There are still big short positions left in the market, traders said.
That could fuel things again, if the market starts to rally again.
“The desk view is that short covering is far from over,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a note. “Our reasoning is that the market can’t de-risk a short in less than 3 hours which provided 20%+ SPX Index downside & major reduction in NET LEVERAGE over 7 seven weeks.”
“No shot it cleared in less than 3 hours,” Bank of America said.