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Trump to reshape US economy with tariffs, crackdown on migrants

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Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and the U.S. economy is in for a wild ride.

The former and soon-to-be next president has promised an escalation of tariffs on all U.S. imports and the biggest mass deportation of migrants in history. He also wants a say in Federal Reserve policy. Many economists reckon the platform adds up to higher inflation and slower growth ahead.

Trump also promised sweeping tax cuts during the campaign that culminated in his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. His ability to deliver them may hinge on the outcome of a House contest that remains in doubt, even as Republicans won control of the Senate. A divided government would require the new president to bargain more intensively with Congress over fiscal policy.

Donald Trump during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida
Donald Trump during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida

Win McNamee/Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty

Still, it’s Trump’s tariffs — which he’s threatened to slap on adversaries and allies alike — that stand to have the biggest impact on the U.S. economy, analysts say. The self-proclaimed “tariff man” enacted duties on about $380 billion in imports in his first term. Now he’s promising much wider measures, including a 10% to 20% charge on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese products. 

Trump says the import taxes can help raise revenue, as well as reduce U.S. trade deficits and re-shore manufacturing. What’s more, as Trump demonstrated last time he was in office, a president can enact tariffs essentially single-handedly. 

“He’s going to be off and running,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I think we’re going to get these policies in place very quickly and they’re going to have impact immediately.”

Most economists say inflation will rise as a result, because consumers will pay higher costs that are passed on by importers who pay the tariffs.

Moody’s predicted before the vote that with Trump as president inflation would rise to at least 3% next year — and even higher in the event of a GOP sweep — from 2.4% in September, fueled by higher tariffs and an outflow of migrant labor. If targeted countries retaliate and a trade war ensues, the US will face “a modest stagflationary shock,” Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson said in an Oct. 16 webinar, a situation in which economic output stalls and price pressures rise. 

‘Winners and losers’

Such a scenario will put the Federal Reserve in the position of wanting to raise interest rates to combat inflation, but also to cut rates to prevent the risk of a recession, said Jason Furman, the former head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama.

“In economics, everything has winners and losers,” Furman said in an Oct. 17 webinar. “In this case, the losers are consumers and most businesses.”

Trump will likely have thoughts on how the central bank should respond. He told Bloomberg News he should have a “say” on interest rates, “because I think I have very good instincts.” Pressure on the Fed during a second Trump term would worry investors, because history suggests countries that allow politicians to direct monetary policy are likely to face higher inflation.

In general, Trump and his supporters dismiss the downbeat projections from “Wall Street elites.” They point out that inflation didn’t spike in his first term while he enacted tariffs and tax cuts — and presided over robust economic growth, until the pandemic hit.

The Coalition for a Prosperous America, which supports trade protectionism, estimated that a 10% “universal” tariff, combined with income-tax cuts that Trump is promising, would add more than $700 billion to economic output and create 2.8 million additional jobs.

‘Loosening up’

Michael Faulkender, chief economist at the America First Policy Institute that’s staffed with officials from Trump’s first administration, said the negative projections don’t account for the economic growth that Trump’s deregulatory agenda and plans to boost energy production would generate.

“There’s a lot of loosening up of our economy, removing structural costs in our economy, that can generate growth in an actually deflationary way,” Faulkender said.

Trump promised to make permanent the tax cuts he pushed through in 2017 for households, small businesses and the estates of wealthy individuals — most of which are due to expire at the end of 2025. Even if the GOP loses its sway over the House, there’s likely some room to strike a deal with Democrats, who also favor keeping some of those measures in place. 

Any such bargaining will take place under the pressure of another looming debt-ceiling showdown, with borrowing limits set to kick in again next year under a deal to resolve a 2023 standoff. Congress-watchers see other areas for potential agreement, because some — like a tax-credit for childcare and an exemption for tips — were backed by both parties during the campaign. But some of Trump’s proposals, including further cuts in the corporate tax rate, would likely be off the table if Republicans lose the House. 

The tax and spending promises that the Trump campaign rolled out during the election could collectively cost more than $10 trillion over a decade, according to Bloomberg News calculations. Trump said he’d use tariff revenues to help pay for them, but economists at the Peterson Institute estimate that the import duties could only raise a fraction of that sum.

Many economists also doubt that Trump’s trade policy can quickly boost manufacturing employment, one of the stated goals. It takes years to build factories, and automation means they nowadays require fewer workers.

A National Bureau of Economic Research study concluded that Trump’s past tariffs failed to increase jobs in protected industries, while hurting jobs in other sectors that got caught up in the trade war.

“The tariffs are not going to bring down the trade deficit, they’re not going to restore manufacturing jobs, but it’ll take several years to discover that and a lot of pain in between,” Maurice Obstfeld, formerly a chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said in an Oct. 17 webinar.

‘Significant chaos’

Trump’s threat to deport millions of undocumented migrants is another source of alarm to many economists and businesses. It would reduce the labor pool available to companies that have found it hard to hire. 

Deporting post-2020 arrivals would shrink the economy by some 3% by the next election in 2028, while the drop in demand from a smaller population would lower prices, Bloomberg Economics’ Chris Collins wrote in a note. The impact would likely land hardest in industries like construction, leisure and hospitality — and states including Texas, Florida and California — where migrants make up the biggest share of the labor force.

Of course, campaign pledges often fall by the wayside, and the economic impact of Trump’s second-term policies will depend on which ones he prioritizes and can get done.

Many doubt that deportations of migrants are feasible on the scale Trump has proposed. He’s floated using the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or even the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 — used to justify World War II-era internment of noncitizens — to carry out the plan, which would likely face court challenges.

As for tariffs, Trump himself has indicated the numbers he floats are often intended as bargaining levers. But even the threat of tariffs will be disruptive as companies scramble to renegotiate contracts and reconfigure supply chains to get ahead of the potential duties, said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project. 

“We’re going to see this significant chaos across the entire business landscape,” she said.

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Major tax legislation set to move on Capitol Hill

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The “big beautiful bill” touted by President Trump is getting closer, though the timeline remains imprecise. 

“There’s been some public reporting on tougher questions of spending cuts, but the difference between the tax bill this year and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 is that the inclusion of a lot of spending cuts in the same bill makes it more challenging this year. From the bill itself several categories are apparent,” said Stephen Eckert, a partner in the National Tax Office of Top 25 Firm Plante Moran. “There’s the extension of the TCJA extension, campaign promises, and a catch-all category. In some ways we would expect an extension of the vast majority of TCJA provisions, plus the campaign promises as well as potentially all the other things that get thrown in that we didn’t expect.”

“For example, S.711, the Transportation Freedom Act, sponsored by [Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio], which would give a 200% deduction for wages paid to auto workers. There is a broader category of things that could be coming to support certain industries,” he continued. 

U.S. Capitol

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One looming question regarding campaign promises is the potential modification of the Inflation Reduction Act and green energy incentives, Ecker noted: “There has been opposition to certain changes there from Republicans — we’re watching to see what happens to the fate of energy efficient credits and incentives and to what extent they are modified under the bill.”

The House and the Senate are working in parallel, waiting for legislative text, he observed. “The non-tax portions of the bill will be worked on earlier, but until we get the actual text from the House Ways and Means  Committee, there will be questions. For example, there are multiple versions of some of the Trump proposals, such as the proposal to exclude tips and Social Security benefits from income. Each one is a little bit different. We expect changes but it’s unclear what the changes will be.”

Principles or tactics?

For Eckert, the real questions are about where the red lines are for certain members. For example, there have been statements  by some House members that they won’t vote for the bill if it includes a cap on state and local tax deductions. 

But are those actual red lines, or negotiating positions that will be softened? 

“At this point, businesses would just like some degree of certainty going forward,” he said. “Until then, it’s hard to engage in longer term planning. Hopefully, the bill will advance relatively soon so businesses will know what will be the law for the next couple of years and have a chance to plan for the future.”

The House and Senate are both actively working on their versions, and they are constantly interacting with each other, according to Miklos Ringbauer, founder of MiklosCPA in Southern California. “So instead of having A and B and then trying to figure out what they can create out of it, they are now jointly working on it, so it has a greater chance of passing across the board,” he explained.

However, there’s a bit of a gap in the size of the budget cuts in each bill, with the Senate version pegged at less of a cut than the House. And some want to double the SALT limitation, while some would prefer to see it go away altogether. 

“Likewise,the estate tax exemption,” he continued. “There are some that would like to see the entire estate qualify as exempt from tax. Those are some of the ideas floating around, but until it’s voted on by both chambers and the president signs it, there’s no law. Everything can change until the very last minute.”

Ringbauer noted that the TCJA required technical corrections and extensive guidance when it was passed in 2017, and he anticipates the same with this year’s bill: “There’s a very short overall window because the 2017 laws are expiring at the end of this year. Between May and December we have just a few months.”

“It looks like everyone is on board with expanding the availability of the Child Tax Credit on the individual side. It helped a lot of families at that time. It helped a number of families to get out of poverty,” he noted.

The reenactment of 100% bonus depreciation and the opportunity to fully expense R&D will be boons to business if they are, as expected, part of the legislation.

“It’s an exciting year for tax accountants; we are seeing a huge transformation of tax laws all over again,” Ringbauer said. “What could happen is, they simply reenact every part of the 2017 tax law legislation, or they could figure out what really worked and what didn’t work, and start adjusting some things and letting other ones expire.”

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IESBA offers Q&A on tax planning ethical standards

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The International Ethics Standards Board for Accountants staff posted a questions and answers publication Thursday to support the adoption and implementation of its IESBA Tax Planning and Related Services Standards

The standards offer a principles-based framework and a global ethical benchmark to guide accountants in public practice and in business when they’re doing tax planning.

The Q&A publication highlights, illustrates and explains various aspects of the standards to help firms, jurisdictional standard-setters and accounting organizations adopt and implement the standards, and individual accountants apply them. The publication can also help tax authorities, the corporate governance community, investors, business preparers, educational bodies or institutions, and other stakeholders understand the standards.

The Tax Planning and Related Services standards take effect July 1, 2025.

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Firms: PMS’s, tech infrastructure, need upgrades

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Tech-forward CPA firms–including those listed in this year’s Best Firms for Technology–reported a variety of areas in need of a tech upgrade, and are planning major investments over the next year to address at least some of these pain points. 

One of the most commonly mentioned areas were firm practice management systems. 

Some, like California-based Navolio and Tallman, wanted better reporting options than were currently on offer from their practice management systems. New Jersey-based Wilken Gutenplan, meanwhile, said they needed practice management software with better billing and reporting features. And others, like top 25 firm Citrin Cooperman, wanted better solutions for internal administrative tasks. Meanwhile, top 100 firm Prager Metis, wanted better workflow and integrations. 

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“[We plan to] focus on improving inward facing practice management workflows that seamlessly provide connectivity between different vendor applications. Effectively automation from client intake to delivering the service,” said chief information officer Gurjit Singh. 

However, such upgrades are not always easy, and in fact can present a major challenge for firms such as Iowa-based Community CPA and Associates. 

“Our biggest technology challenge continues to be managing technical debt and navigating the limitations of our legacy systems—particularly the lack of interoperability and scalability in key platforms like our practice management system (PMS). This system handles many interconnected functions—client tracking, engagement and project management, time entry, billing, and collections—but its tightly integrated design makes it difficult to enhance any one area without impacting others. While we’ve made progress with some integrations and automations, we’re still working to develop and migrate these functions to more robust modern platforms that allow for greater scalability,” said CEO Ying Sa. 

Firms also reported a need to update and improve their technology infrastructure. Top 25 firm Armanino, for instance, was expanding its cloud footprint even further, with the firm wanting to move its remaining on-premise dependencies into native cloud solutions. Illinois-based Mowery and Schoenfeld, similarly, pointed to their server infrastructure as an area that needs updating. 

For others, though, the question of infrastructure was less about hardware and more about software. In particular, while firms have already made upgrades and improvements to their tech stack, getting these programs to talk to each other seems to be a consistent challenge across firms, one that firms such top 50 firm LBMC said they were eager to address in both their client-facing and back-office technology solutions. 

“Our firm’s biggest technology challenge is the ongoing effort to integrate various service-specific applications so they can work seamlessly together. This integration is crucial for enhancing collaboration and efficiency across different service lines,” said CEO Jim Meade. 

But while these were the more common answers, there were many other areas that firms said could stand some improvement. Some, such as the Florida-based Network Firm, were looking to upgrade core service solutions like audit, tax or data analytics software. Others named process efficiency as a priority, such as top 25 firm Cherry Bekaert who named automation readiness/standardization for certain practices as an area due for an upgrade, or top 50 firm UHY who said they were working to streamline the engagement life cycle. 

And of course there were those, such as top 25 firm Eisner Amper, that wanted to boost their AI capacities. 

“Our focus for technology capability additions are in Generative AI where it can help us work smarter and faster—across both client-facing services and internal operations,” said chief technology officer Sanjay Desai. 

AI, automation and infrastructure

These pain points have served to inform these firms’ plans for technology investments over the next year. While firms, just like before, provided a wide variety of plans and priorities, most seemed focused on improved efficiency and insights through automation and AI. 

However, when it came to AI tools at least, most declined to provide specifics beyond their overall intentions to invest in them. Though, they did say they were hoping to use these solutions to speed up workflows in client-facing service areas like tax or audit, or to acquire tools that would let them create or modify their own AIs. 

More expansive visions came when discussing the kinds of hardware purchases that would support these aforementioned AI tools. California-based Navolio and Tallman, for example, elaborated on its plans to purchase new laptops specifically optimized for AI applications. 

“We’re planning to invest in a new generation of laptops that come with Copilot-enabled Neural Processing Units (NPUs). These laptops are designed to accelerate AI-powered tasks, and we see them as an investment that keeps our firm aligned with the future of the tech industry. The laptops will have improved internal specs for multitasking and include touchscreen functionality to make day-to-day usage more intuitive,” said IT partner Stephanie Ringrose. Other firms also made mention of new laptops optimized for AI, including Armanino, which added that it is also considering pairing them with hardwire and storage for internal AI production. 

Beyond hardware, firms like Community CPA and Associates also said they were planning investments in their software infrastructure as well. 

“We plan to begin transitioning to a new ERP and CRM platform as well as explore agentic AI tools for saving time in our accounting services workflows for our clients. We also intend to purchase replacement hardware for routine replacement of equipment that has reached the end of their lifecycle,” said Sa. Cherry Bekaert also said they were looking into new ERPs. 

Other planned investments include virtual servers and desktops, API access for SaaS applications, resource scheduling and pricing solutions, data management and governance tools, cybersecurity solutions, and internal communications software. 

However, some firms, such as the Network Firm, are not planning to purchase new solutions but to make them in-house, and more are planning to buy some and make others, such as Cherry Bekaert, who said they were building a custom intelligent automation platform. Assurance partner Jonathan Kraftchick said the firm is looking at many different avenues to align their technology investments with business objectives. 

“As our portfolio broadens, it introduces new layers of complexity to our operations, requiring cutting-edge systems that deliver actionable insights, enhance decision-making, and streamline internal processes. This challenge propels us to implement diverse technology solutions, meticulously tailored to meet the evolving demands of our expanding portfolio and ensure the seamless integration of new acquisitions,” he said. 

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